Vote on the top Cardinals prospect in 2025

12/23/2024 09:00 AM

This isn't quite as clear cut as last season's #1 prospect

To whomever asked when the top 20 prospects were coming back, your timing is impeccable. I was planning to start writing this before I saw your comment when I realized I started this feature around this time last year. Like last time, I do two posts a week, but we will probably not complete this in 10 weeks, because I am perfectly willing to put it on temporary hold to, say, talk about a transaction the Cardinals made.

There is a very notable risk with starting this now. At some point during this feature, the Cardinals will probably make a trade and such a trade probably involves prospects and said prospects may very well be top 20 worthy or even top 10 worthy. We're probably safe for a few posts - I don't really think the Cardinals have any players would would net a genuine top 100 prospect - but a fringey top 100? That could factor in later. Hopefully we get lucky.

I'm reminded of Freddy Pacheco, lost off waivers to the Tigers in the middle of voting. It happened before he got the most votes, but we're not always going to be so lucky. Now in this case, I would be kind of surprised if the Cardinals lost prospects. I expect additional prospects to be more of an issue, and maybe we'll figure out a solution if that happens, but for at least the first few votes, this probably won't be a problem unless a trade REALLY shocks us.

As always, the greatest difficulty for me is compiling who to put on the voting list. Especially before most lists are completed. The Cardinal Nation, compiled by Brian Walton and former writer Blake Newberry (who juggled both sites before) isn't quite done with its top 50 (they have 8 to go and are doing one a day, so I will soon be looking at that). Fangraphs will probably post the Cardinals list in August. I either don't have access to Baseball America or they haven't done it yet and regardless, it's only a top 10, so that's only helpful for so long.

I did recently get Baseball Prospectus, but they carry some risk in following their list as gospel too. They put William Sullivan 10th last year, and that looked like a bad selection to me, and it sure didn't age well very quickly. And there's a pick like that for most sites honestly, most good sites, and some of them will look very smart and well some will not. But the broader point is a collective of fans probably won't vote them as high, so it's my job to know which prospects a group of fans will like. I made a really good call when I put Victor Scott II in the initial voting even though I didn't have any evidence - at the time - that he was considered a top 100 prospect. So at the end of the day, it comes down to me.

First things first, there are a few players you may think are eligible that are not. I follow rookie eligibility rules for determining what is a prospect. That is 45 days or more on an active roster (time on the injured list does not count), 130 at-bats, or 50 innings pitched. The big player this disqualifies is Victor Scott II, who fails on both days (83 days) and at-bats (145). Just to cover my bases, this also disqualifies Luken Baker and Jose Fermin. New acqusition Ryan Vilade has 51 days, so he's out. Roddery Munoz too, who has well over 50 innings. Two players I think might actually qualify, but I'm just not putting on the list are Drew Rom (1.044 days) and Riley O'Brien (1.009), and it doesn't matter anyway because you guys are not voting them on a list.

I'll do the same thing I did list year. I will present an initial list of prospects and then add 2 every time until I get to 10 names. I'm got five names for you today. These five names are the top five on MLB dot com and on Baseball Prospectus. They are not listed on The Cardinal Nation, which means they are least top 8 over there too. Fangraphs top 3 from last year has the same three names as well, and of the next two names, one of them will definitely be lower, and the other doesn't have much shot to be selected as the #1 prospect. So I'm good with these five names. These are presented in alphabetical order.

A couple notes. As some of you know, I recently purchased a subscription to Baseball Prospectus, so I will be taking advantage of that. Two new stats will posted with the regular ones: DRC+ and DRA. Simply put, the d stands for "deserved," or a better way to put it might be expected. Based on the batted ball profile and park effects, this is in theory what you would expect the hitter's offensive contribution to be. If you are familiar with how OPS+ and wRC+ work, DRC+ is scaled the same way. For pitchers, DRA is focused on the expected performance of a pitcher accounting for defense, park, and quality of opponent. If you know what a good ERA is, you know what a good DRA is.

Jimmy Crooks III, C - 23

LYR: #16

Stats (AA): 90 G, 371 PAs, .321/.410/.498, 11.6 BB%, 21 K%, .178 ISO, .390 BABIP, 156 wRC+, 124 DRC+

BP: "Defensively, Crooks has the traditional markers of catcherdom: a stout, sturdy frame and an above-average arm, which he used to throw out 33% of opposing baserunners. He should be a solid enough framer and overall receiver to stick behind the dish."

For now, I don't have scouting grades to give you. Crooks scouting on Fangraphs for example is likely outdated. I figure you can get a good sense of his offensive potential by looking at his stats - good K/BB generally means a good approach, ISO means power. Defense, well I'll do my best to give you a sense of their defense, but that's an imperfect system because grading minor league defense is really difficult.

Tink Hence, RHP - 22

LYR: #2

Stats (AA): 20 GS, 79.2 IP, 34.1 K%, 8.1 BB%, 41.7 GB%, .302 BABIP, 2.71 ERA/2.51 FIP/2.62 xFIP/3.06 DRA

BP: "He runs astronomical whiff rates including in the zone on his changeup, which has taken clear steps forward to become his primary secondary offering (and perhaps one he should be leaning on more than he currently is). Hence has moved away from his impressively moving but loopy curveball over the course of his pro career, leaning instead on a gyro slider that could play to an out-pitch with further development."

Hence is a pretty clear prospect at this point. He has one drawback: innings/health. The health is a bit overstated because he hasn't actually been injured that often, the Cardinals have intentionally and strategically limited his innings. Last year, performance-wise, he actually took a step forward. He had better stats in AA in 2024 than he did at either High A or AA last year, and way better stats in his second attempt in AA. Innings-wise, which has turned into the only real concern with him, was not a promising development. But not necessarily disastrous either, he only made 3 less starts than 2023.

Quinn Mathews, LHP - 24

LYR: N/A

Stats (Low to AA): 22 GS, 126.2 IP, 36.7 K%, 7.1 BB%, .254 BABIP, 2.27 ERA/2.37 FIP/2.97 DRA

AAA: 4 GS, 16.2 IP, 27.8 K%, 17.7 BB%, 45.2 GB%, .405 BABIP, 6.48 ERA/4.23 FIP/4.53 xFIP/4.49 DRA

BP: "What was once a pedestrian fastball is now a strong pitch. Mathews pairs that with a low-80s changeup that tunnels extremely well with his fastball shape and arm action. His mid-80s slider can play as a third out-pitch especially against lefties, although it has some shape inconsistency that he might need to tighten up to get more chase from major-league hitters."

I felt the need to distinguish Mathews at his first three levels from AAA. For one, I didn't want to post four different stat lines when three of them tell you he dominated. Just know he had no issues with Low A, High A, or AA. I also felt like AAA needed to be separated because he struggled and lumping it in with the rest would not really illustrate that point. It's only 4 starts so it shouldn't be too emphasized, but it's probably enough that he's not Opening Day ready.

Thomas Saggese, 2B/3B - 23

LYR: #5

Stats (AAA): 125 G, 528 PAs, .253/.313/.438, 5.9 BB%, 23.1 K%, .186 ISO, .296 BABIP, 93 wRC+, 99 DRC+

BP: "You may remember me from such Cardinals infield success stories as Brendan Donovan and Paul DeJong"

Of this initial list and frankly of anybody who you end up voting for, this is probably the prospect you are most familiar with. You can incorporate your own eye test into your voting, that is if you were watching games last September. Don't need to share his MLB stats, they were not good. But 52 PAs at the end of a long season facing a higher level of competition than you have ever before? Look no further than Masyn Winn in 2023 to see how useful those plate appearances are for future judgement.

JJ Wetherholt, SS - 22

Stats (Low A): 29 G, 126 PAs, .295/.405/.400, 12.7 BB%, 11.9 K%, .105 ISO, .326 BABIP, 137 wRC+, 119 DRC+

BP: "He takes a controlled rip from a steep bat angle, creating damage in the air. He does so without major swing-and-miss, showing strong bat-to-ball against both fastballs and secondaries. He makes excellent swing decisions, both in the zone and outside it."

There are really only two potential downsides to Wetherholt, and in my opinion, it's far too early to actually call them weaknesses yet. There's the reason he fell to the Cardinals: his injury problems. Which is really one injury, his hamstring. It's possible he wasn't fully healed the second time he got hurt. And the other is he doesn't necessarily pull fly balls as much as you'd like, but that one is picking at nits for now.

If you think a player NOT on this list is the best Cardinals prospect in the system, you'd be at odds with every public prospect ranking system. I'm looking ahead and I'm going to have some tough decisions to make! So I'll likely have some H2H polls of similar players and you can tell me which one to put on the list first. To give you an example, I might need a poll for Ian Bedell and Gordon Graceffo, two fairly similar prospects.

Vote for who you feel is the best Cardinals prospect in the system.