Gone for Miles

12/24/2024 09:00 AM

Exploring the curious case of Miles Mikolas

2024 was a season to forget for Miles Mikolas. While it's fair game to criticize his overall performance, it actually wasn't ALL bad. Before we get to the epiphany part of the article let's review the fodder that makes the case for why Miles wasn't at his best in last season.

His ERA was 5.35, his BABIP was .310 which continues to be an issue in the non-shift era of baseball, his BAA was .281 of the 71 pitchers who pitched a minimum of 150 IP; Miles ranked: 70th in ERA, 53rd in FIP, and 60th in BABIP. Miles was also 69th in K% at 16.9 (nice.)

Here's the interesting part, it has been a constant offseason barrage of Mikolas hatred and distain that prompted me to see if he did anything of value or if he really was just that bad. In 2024 Mikolas made 32 starts which was the 5th time he accomplished that feat in the last 6 seasons, 2020 notwithstanding. In an era where pitcher injuries run rampant, Miles posts and there is value in that. Mikolas had 15 Quality starts (6 IP 3 ER or less) which was tied with Sean Manaea, Jack Flaherty, Mitch Keller, and Cutter Krawford. Oh, and that was 2 more than Kyle Gibson and Sonny Gray who each had 13. His FIP (fielding independent pitching) was more than a full run lower than his ERA 5.35 to 4.24. Lastly, given his performance, one might thinks that surely he couldn't have accounted for any type of value, but that would be wrong again and don't call me Shirley! Miles was responsible for 2.0 fWAR which was tied with Bryan Bello of the Boston Red Sox and higher than Jose Quintana, Marcus Stroman, Jose Berrios, Frankie Montas, Carlos Rodon, and Cutter Krawford!

Fangraphs has a tool that evaluates what a player would be worth on the open market based off their recent performance and Fangraphs projects that Miles would be worth 15.8 million on the open market which, compared to his current 18.5 million price tag, makes him a slightly overpaid player, but it's really a lot closer than you might think.

Verdict: Miles Mikolas is hittable and if he's not on his game and locating his pitches major league hitters are going to punish him. If he is on his game, he can maneuver a lineup capably like any crafty veteran starter, it's just fairly inconsistent when it comes to the outcome of those on field results. He makes every start and eats a ton of innings for a team that's actively investing in a direction that provides less assurances as far as the amount of dependable innings that will be provided from young starters. If he can perform at a rate that simply makes him a net 0 asset and is worth no more or no less than his contract (as its evaluated by industry standards, not our own personal ones) then I think he's a perfectly adequate innings eater on a fringe contender who hopes everything goes right for a surprise playoff bid. If not, then he's the quintessential 1-year deal veteran and you can cut bait at any time you determine it's no longer beneficial to continue giving him opportunities. Thanks for reading!