Even is the word in a four-game series against the Pirates - A Series Preview
09/16/2024 09:00 AM
The pitching matchups suggests a split, but I've already used the word split in a series preview.
I've written a few series previews where the season was over, but the season wasn't really over so it somehow feels strange to write a preview where there's not even a miracle chance of the season extending into the playoffs. Technically, according to ESPN, the Cardinals have less than a 0.1% chance. So there's a simulation in there somewhere where the Cardinals make the playoffs. I imagine winning literally the rest of the games is the bare minimum.
What's at stake now is basically bragging rights, or maybe 2nd place if you care about such a thing. Most people probably wouldn't care except that the 2nd place team currently is the Cubs. The Cardinals don't really control their fate there since they are done facing the Cubs. What they can make sure of in this four-game set is to not get in last place. The Cardinals are three games ahead of the Pirates, and even a split would make it pretty hard for the Pirates to surpass the Cardinals.
The Cardinals haven't seen the Pirates since the beginning of July, so there are some small changes the Pirates have made to their team, but it's mostly the same team. One acquisiton that I'll admit I don't quite understand is Isiah Kiner-Falefa. It's not so much acquiring him as the importance they seem to be placing on him.
He is for starters not a good hitter and pretty much never has been, but he's leading off games for the Pirates. They feel comfortable enough with him there that Andrew McCutchen, who has batted leadoff for 384 of his 484 plate appearances, has moved to cleanup. Some of that is connected to McCutchen, who has a 112 wRC+. But giving the most plate appearances of your team to an 83 wRC+ career hitter (with an 86 wRC+ projection who has also hit terrible as a Pirate).
They've also given him the starting SS role, moving Oneil Cruz to center. A lot of this has to do with Cruz, who has been bad as a defender, with -13 OAA over 1,700 innings. Although he's been just -3 this year. But IKF is not an especially good defender at SS. He's a little below average. He's acceptable, he's probably better than Cruz. But do they have longer term plans with this guy? He's signed for another year. Anyway, a lot of this confusion is me seeing IKF suited as a backup and the Pirates clearly making him their plan at short.
They also traded for Bryan de la Cruz from the Marlins. This one is clear to me. They traded a couple of longshot nonprospects because they felt Cruz had a better chance to break out than those prospects did to become something. But Cruz is going on 1,786 plate appearances of being a 91 wRC+ hitter, he's 27, and he's absolutely awful on defense. So good luck with that one.
I will give the Pirates props on Joey Bart, who was supposed to be the heir apparent to Buster Posey but struck out way too much and then Patrick Bailey showed up. With the shackles of that pressure off, he has a 130 wRC+ in close to 250 plate appearances. Is he that good of a hitter? Probably not. But him being a decent hitter looks sustainable at the least.
They traded for Billy Cook with what looks like a legitimate prospect, which on paper does not look.... great. He kind of broke out this year as a "prospect," starting the year in AA at 25. But the projection systems sure do not buy the break out, with a 67 wRC+ projection from ZiPS. He has struck out 7 times in his first 18 plate appearances with three hits to show for it. He's a corner outfield/1B guy.
What else? Nick Gonzales was their cleanup hitter when the Cardinals last faced them and his batting line was already kind of in a freefall, and now he's at an 87 wRC+. Rowdy Tellez has a 93 wRC+, but I'm sure he's going to hit two homers and bat .500 in this series. Ke'Bryan Hayes has been bad and is currently injured, and the everyday 3B role has gone to Jared Triolo, who also can't hit and his defense doesn't approach Hayes (whose does).
The bullpen is more or less the same. Bednar is no longer getting saves. I mean he wasn't real successful at getting them, but what I mean to say is that he's not attempting to get saves anymore. Aroldis Chapman appears to be their closer. Colin Holderman is living up to his name, still getting holds. They did trade for Jalen Beeks, who has been good for them, and who is a lefty, so he'll be a problem. I guess the Pirates kind of sort of went for it at the deadline? Cause they did not trade Chapman and traded for a reliever who is a free agent at the end of the year. Not a huge commitment, but don't remember them being that close.
Monday - 6:45 PM
Paul Skenes (2.10 ERA/2.64 FIP/2.69 xFIP) vs. Andre Pallante (4.13 ERA/4.06 FIP/4.11 xFIP)
It feels already set in stone that Skenes is winning Rookie of the Year, but it would be in the Cardinals' best interest to rough him up. Although there is a bright side to him winning the Rookie of the Year (from a divisional opponent). Skenes gets credited for a full year of service time, so even though the Pirates didn't call him up until May 11th, there's over a month of Skenes starts that gets credit in his service time that they don't get to have,
Pallante may be feeling the effects of surpassing his career high innings total. He was pretty bad in his two most recent starts, with a combined 10 walks. He's at 118 innings and counting, when his previous career high was 108. Although he did that two years ago and only reached 84 last season. I don't think they will but I don't think it would be egregious if he moves to the bullpen in the final week or so. (Ignore everything I said if he matches Skenes)
Tuesday - 6:45 PM
Bailey Falter (4.20 ERA/4.22 FIP/4.67 xFIP) vs. Lance Lynn (3.96 ERA/4.30 FIP/4.42 xFIP)
This start is very important for my theory that Lynn was pitching at least a little compromised in more than just his final start when hitting the injured list. The Pirates are 7th highest in K%, so I'm expecting strikeouts at the very least from Lynn.
Falter isn't very good, but he is left-handed and sometimes that's all you need to be good against the Cardinals.
Wednesday - 6:45 PM
Luis Ortiz (3.45 ERA/4.39 FIP/4.76 xFIP) vs. Sonny Gray (3.75 ERA/3.21 FIP/2.83 xFIP)
Okay, so I don't know if Roster Resource knows something that ESPN doesn't, but ESPN lists Ortiz as the starter on Wednesday. Roster Resource has... well nobody starting on Wednesday and Ortiz starting on Thursday. So it's possible this is a bullpen game and Ortiz has the Thursday start. But I can't find information confirming that, so I'm going with ESPN.
Ortiz doesn't actually appear to be good and Sonny Gray at home has been great, so we all know how this game should go. We also know how games actually go a lot of the times and it's not always the same as how they should go.
Thursday - 6:15 PM
Mitch Keller (3.87 ERA/3.93 FIP/4.02 xFIP) vs. Erick Fedde (3.45 ERA/4.04 FIP/4.23 xFIP)
I don't think the Pirates are going to have enough of an offense next year to actually be a good team, but I will say their pitching means that they will never be an easy team to beat. There's not going to be a lot of situations where I feel like the Cardinals made some grave mistakes by losing a series to the Pirates, as it has been in the past.
Definitely an interesting series. In the first game, the Pirates have a huge favorable advantage and in the third game, the Cardinals do, but the other two seem like even matchups. So this all looks pretty clearly like a split series to me.
