The Cardinals Should Embrace a Rebuild
Yesterday at 09:00 AM
Change is coming to the Cardinals. They might as well start it now.
Good morning, Viva El Birdos!
I know the season is ongoing. I know there are games to play and actual performances to break down. My mind, though, is drifting toward the offseason, and I want to get some thoughts down in internet print form before the calendar turns to October and I hit the road for travel, business trips, and other life opportunities that will impact my writing schedule.
I'm starting the Viva El Birdos offseason content early. Sorry if you're not emotionally or mentally ready for it.
The title gives away my thoughts today. The Cardinals should embrace a rebuild. What do I mean by that?
The term "rebuild" can be subjective. I've had too many arguments with well-meaning folks over terms like that to leave it ambiguous. Let me define the term.
For this article, imagine putting a team's approach to offseason planning and player personnel on a sliding scale based on the quantity and impact of the moves they choose to make. Such a scale would look something like this:
Lvl 1: Tweak – the team makes minor changes to the roster to fill gaps lost through free agency, etc. These changes aren't likely to cause significant movement in competitiveness. (Example: offseason leading into 2023. Cards swapped out Molina and plugged in Contreras.)
Lvl 2: Retool – the team makes notable changes to the roster to fill gaps and to replace poor performers/roster issues to improve a team's competitiveness. (Example: offseason leading into 2024. The Cardinals removed O'Neill, Knizner, and DeJong plus others and added three new starting pitchers, bullpen arms, and veteran bench players.)
Lvl 3: Rebuild – the team makes significant changes to the roster to clear salary and roster space, and to improve the roster shape. Rebuilding teams typically expect a short-term drop in competitiveness to position their roster for improvement over the next few seasons. (Example: Not many for the Cardinals; the closest is probably after 2007.)
Lvl 4: Tank/Firesale – the team makes extreme changes to the roster to clear salary space and roster space to play young players, acquire high draft picks, and position themselves to contend several seasons into the future. (Example: no Cardinals examples.)
Feel free to adjust these terms to your preferences. These aren't official or universal terms. Not all situations will fit within these parameters. I simply want to provide a guide to help you understand my approach in this article for this coming off-season.
Entering 2025, the Cardinals should not bother merely tweaking or retooling their roster as they have done in recent seasons. It's not working. They also don't need to start tanking or hold a firesale and gut their roster. That's an unnecessarily extreme course of action.
The Cardinals should rebuild. They should commit to making some significant and painful changes to their roster both to clear salary and roster space and to better position the MLB team and the farm system for the future. Yes, the approach that I am suggesting will almost certainly impact their ability to contend in 2025. But doing this now will help prepare their roster for a return to contention in 2026 or, more likely, 2027.
Why Rebuild?
My argument for rebuilding starts with a simple introspective question. Considering the state of the Cardinals' roster, their current talent, available roster space, and likely payroll, how good can the Cardinals be in 2025?
2023 was a lost season. I had them pegged as a 90+ win team entering the season but could not account for everything that was going to go wrong along the way. The pitching fell apart. The offense was pretty good but had terrible timing. The defense was overall atrocious. The club's stars were suddenly no longer stars. They finished with a 71-91 record. The worst from a Cardinals team in a long time. The 2023 Cardinals were likely never as good as the 90+ win team I expected. But they also weren't a 71-win roster in talent. Retrospectively, I have pegged them as a true-talent 81-win, .500 team who severely underperformed.
The Cardinals knew they couldn't just run that roster back this season. They had to reconstruct their pitching staff. They had to clean up some of their offensive backlog. If they tweaked their roster entering 2023, 2024 required a more significant retool. Lynn, Gibson, and Gray joined their rotation. O'Neill and DeJong exited, among others. The club bought some bullpen depth and veteran leadership. They hoped that would improve their win totals.
It has. This team has climbed well past 71 wins but has largely hovered at .500 all season. With just a handful of games remaining, their destiny seems set. They entered the season with an 80-83 win projection and will exit the season in that range.
We can quibble over the details of projections and hypotheticals, but the '23-'24 Cardinals are going to combine for something like a 152-172 record over 324 games. Two full seasons is a fairly definitive statement on how good the talent of a roster is.
How good can the Cardinals be in 2025? From an "as it stands today" view of the roster, it's hard to imagine that team as anything more than a .500 club (give or take a few wins) without significant positive roster changes.
How likely are those changes?
Frustration has boiled over among the fanbase. The Cardinals' attendance is still solid in terms of season-long ticket sales but the stadium has been mostly empty from August forward.
I would assume the same thing is happening with TV ratings. That problem is amplified by the ever-increasing number of viewers locked out of broadcasts from black-out rules, cord-cutting, and Bally's inability to renew deals with area cable companies. It seems certain that the club's contract with Bally will come to an end after this season and the team will be scrambling to implement some kind of streaming or pay-TV alternative.
Decreasing ticket sales, the loss of their cable contract, the unknown of their 2025 TV revenue, the lack of a playoff revenue bump, and increasing non-roster, payroll-related expenses (universal to all teams) are creating a perfect storm of payroll pain. Those factors leave me with little choice but to forecast at best a static payroll in 2025 and most likely a notable decline in spending relative to 2024.
I would like to see the Cardinals aggressively spend their way out of their revenue problem, trying to draw fans back to the stadium and to whatever TV option they create through the excitement of impact additions. I advocated for this same strategy entering 2024.
While the Cardinals did retool in 2024 and did improve their place in the standings over 2023, they did so largely through safe, short-term investments. They weren't trying to get back to 90+ wins and contention in the NL Central. They were trying to climb back over .500 and hope a Wild Card spot or a weak NL Central fell back to them.
The Cardinals are a conservative franchise. That's the way this team operates. It's a philosophical ideal and one that, in my opinion, flows not from Mozeliak and the front office but from the mandate of ownership. Bill DeWitt and his group have set themselves up as the leading model of mid-market competitiveness for the rest of the league.
They are not going to act like the Padres, Mets, or Braves. Bill DeWitt believes those teams are part of baseball's problem. He's said as much. And teams like the Dodgers are playing a completely different sport.
The 2024 trade deadline signaled the path that the Cardinals are likely to take this offseason and provides a prophetic oracle of its likely outcome. The Cardinals entered the 2024 trade deadline wanting to add to their offense, rotation, and bullpen to stay on the edge of contention. Ownership dictated that they could make those moves but they had to do it while remaining payroll neutral.
Talent and payroll came in: Fedde, Armstrong, and Pham. Talent and payroll had to go out: Edman and Carlson. The net result was a wash in money. And in wins.
Talent costs. That applies to both the trade and free agent markets. It's extremely difficult to add wins to a roster without paying for them.
Back to my question above. Considering the state of the Cardinals' roster, their current talent, available roster space, and likely payroll, how good can the Cardinals be in 2025?
They can tweak or retool to fill holes, but in a largely neutral or worse payroll situation and a roster that's already fairly set for 2025, the net result for the Cardinals is likely a static one in terms of their ability to contend.
The Cardinals will enter the off-season as a .500 team. They will most likely exit the off-season in 2025 projecting to be a .500 team. Give or take a few wins.
Let me ask this question another way because I think it gets even closer to the heart of my rebuild argument. If the Cardinals aren't going to increase payroll (and are likely to cut payroll), is there a viable path toward building a roster that will project for 90+ wins and is capable of contending in the NL Central or the National League as a whole?
90+ wins might feel like a high bar for you. It shouldn't be. Despite consistent claims that the NL Central is a weak division, the winner of the Central has averaged 94.8 wins per season since 2010. Based on research I did last year, even 85 wins is rarely enough for a team to sneak into the 3rd Wild Card spot, if it had existed over the last few decades.
If a team wants to contend in the NL, 90 wins or more is the number to shoot for.
In my opinion, based on what I know right now in late September, this Cardinals roster has no reasonable path that will allow them to enter 2025 with a static or lower payroll and a roster projection of 90+ wins. Stretch that down to 88 wins and my answer wouldn't change.
This is a .500 team with a .500 roster and a .500 level of spending. It was in '23. It is in '24. It's likely to be the same in '25.
The Cardinals can triple down on that approach, giving Mo and his crew and this core roster one more go-around before the entire front office and coaching staff turn over and the rotation needs another complete rebuild. Or they can start the process of moving in a new direction a season earlier than they expected.
It's time for the Cardinals to embrace a rebuild.
What would a rebuild look like?
Back to the definition of "rebuild" I offered above. In a rebuild, the team makes significant changes to the roster to clear salary and roster space, and to improve the roster shape. Rebuilding teams typically expect a short-term drop in competitiveness to position their roster for improvement over the next few seasons.
Heading into the 2025 season, I would let this rebuild touch every level of the Cardinals organization – the front office, coaching staff, offense, and pitching.
Let's go section by section and I'll describe how I would approach it.
REBUILDING THE FRONT OFFICE & COACHING STAFF
President of Baseball Operations: We know that POBO John Mozelaik is moving out of this position at the end of the 2025 season. I would accelerate the process and bring in a new POBO after 2024 while transitioning Mozeliak into an advisory role or some other senior position in the organization outside of baseball roster operations. This probably only works if it's Chaim Bloom but he would probably be my first choice regardless. The Cardinals need a POBO who can make the most of the roster within the constraints placed upon them by ownership. Bloom has that kind of experience.
Key Front Office Personnel: I don't feel the need to suggest significant changes to the rest of the front office personnel. I would give the new POBO discretion. He/she already has to hire a new development director with LaRocque's retirement and that's the area within the front office where I have the most concern. It's difficult to evaluate Girsch but I do like his background. I think Flores has largely been fine and might become an asset working under a new POBO with a different philosophy on drafting and scouting.
Manager: I don't think that Oli is part of the problem. I also don't think he's part of the solution. I would give the POBO free reign here but wouldn't have a problem with him coming back to finish out his contract.
Pitching Coach: I would keep Dusty Blake around if Oli stays. He's done a pretty good job and I don't want to lose him in the organization. If he can't stay as the pitching coach because of a new manager, I would promote him to organizational pitching coordinator or some such position.
Hitting Coach: Turner Ward is out regardless of what else happens this offseason.
REBUILDING THE ROSTER: OFFENSE
Here is the rough offensive/defensive depth chart I would expect entering the 2025 season:
C – Willson Contreras, Ivan Herrera, (Pages)
1b – Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson
2b – Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman
SS – Masyn Winn, Thomas Saggese
3b – Nolan Arenado
OF – Lars Nootbaar, Trade/Placeholder, Victor Scott, Michael Siani
DH – Alec Burleson, Nolan Gorman
Commentary: When you read that defensive alignment above, please read quite a bit of flexibility into it. Long term, I think Walker belongs at 1st base. I know many of you disagree. That's fine. I think he can be an average or better defender at 1st in a year or two and don't think he'll reach average in the outfield at any point in his career. They can play him in RF for a while but I would aggressively make the shift to first now so I have the freedom to build the outfield how I want it over the long run.
I am starting to see Gorman as an odd man out in my future roster construction. One of my goals with this rebuild is to reorient the roster in a way that makes long-term sense and I struggle to see how Gorman fits outside of DH, which is a low priority position. Gorman's value is down but it's not tanked. He has tons of control left and a very good season and a half to go along with his one bad season on his resume. If I could turn Gorman into a solid starting cost-controlled outfielder or young starting pitcher, I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger.
It's not a move that has to be made (which is why I still have him listed on the roster with a strikethrough) but it is a possibility I would strongly explore. I would consider substituting Donovan (Saggese + Gorman at 2b until Wetherholt arrives) or Burleson (Gorman to DH) if they brought back an even better return.
Maybe I should just simplify this whole section and say I would trade a cost-controlled but experienced 2b/1b/DH to get the best young talent I could get and play whoever remains wherever they make sense.
REBUILDING THE ROSTER: PITCHING
Rotation Depth: Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Kyle Gibson/Miles Mikolas. Then pick two from: Andre Pallante, Michael McGreevy, Ian Bedell, Gordon Graceffo, Quinn Matthews, Tink Hence, et al.
Commentary: I'm not locking much into stone here because the Cardinals have significant options. The core of my approach is that the club should keep Gray and Fedde and then retain one player from among Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson. Then use young players to fill out the rest of the rotation.
Why keep Gray and Fedde? Gray is under contract and could be part of a future contending rotation. Fedde probably has pretty good trade value but also has the highest future upside of the other starters under control. Keep him and see for now. They could always move him at the deadline.
Beyond those two, I would prefer to pick up Gibson's option, let Lynn go, and then trade both Mikolas and Matz. I am not making these decisions on win-ability; I simply prefer trading pitchers for something rather than letting free agents go for nothing. Mikolas is under contract, and if you look at his FIP vs. his ERA, he should still have some value on the trade market. He also likely still has his no-trade clause, so that becomes an issue. If he can't be traded, keep him and let Gibson walk. Some team will take on Matz's relatively small contract, but he won't bring much back.
Pallante has earned more of a look, but these last two spots are essentially a season-long open competition. I would start older to younger, hoping that a guy like Quinn Matthews is ready by midseason and Tink Hence could force his way up by late season.
Bullpen: Trade Ryan Helsley
Commentary: If I were the Cardinals, I wouldn't spend anything on the bullpen but I would make sure I had the depth I need to survive the season and allow the players listed above to stay in the rotation in either AAA or MLB. The team can also make use of the starters not included above, like Robberse and Kloffenstein. The big move here is trading Ryan Helsley. He's a free agent after the 2025 season. It makes sense to maximize his trade value before the season. I would try to get the best return for him that I could get.
The Time is Now
Let's say the Cardinals make those moves. The Cardinals trade Gorman, Donovan, or Burleson in a swap of cost-controlled MLB players to better improve their roster construction and position themselves for the future. Matz is moved for depth. Mikolas stays. Gibson & Lynn walk. Ryan Helsley is moved for the best package he can bring.
The Cardinals would get a nice influx of talent. If they can get a young outfielder that would push Walker to first or Scott/Siani to the bench, all the better. Or maybe they can add a name or two to the rotation mix. Regardless, even MLB-ready prospects would be welcome on this team.
The simple reality is that the Cardinals' ability to contend in the future does not depend on Miles Mikolas, Ryan Helsley, or Steven Matz. It really doesn't depend on Brendan Donovan, Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado, or Lars Nootbaar, either. It depends on (in no particular order) the development of guys like Masyn Winn, Jordan Walker, Quinn Matthews, Tink Hence, J. J. Wetherholt, Ivan Herrera, and others. And it's likely to be a new POBO, manager, and other front office and coaching personnel that leads those players to their hoped for potential.
It's a good time to create space for those players. It's a good time to bring in the executive leadership with the vision and flexibility to get those players into the roles that the team wants them to fill for a generation. It's a good time to reset expectations and allow this team's young talent time to learn, fail, and to figure out how to succeed without the pressure of meeting unrealistic contending standards set by an expiring regime.
It is just better to make all these moves now rather than scuffling through one more wasted year of .500 baseball.
Change is coming to the organization. It's inevitable. The Cardinals have planned for it in their front office. They hope for it with their young players. They should go ahead and embrace it. Now is the time to start to rebuild.
