2024-2025 Off-season Plan - Part 4 - The Pitching

11/02/2024 07:00 AM

It's "Pitching, pitching, pitching!". Except, it's not.

I am back with Part 4 of the 2024-2025 Off-season Analysis. These are links to Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3.

NOTE: This article was written before the Cardinals announced they were declining the options on three pitchers: Lynn, Gibson, Middleton. I don't think this news meaningfully impacts the analysis below. None were unexpected.

What I'm going to do in this part is examine the pitching side of the roster and try and think like the Cardinals brain trust and determine the puzzle pieces – which ones they will want to keep and build around, and which ones they will want to leverage in trades to bring back what they need to improve.

The key questions are similar to the position player side: Which contributors on the roster can be reasonably expected to improve on their performance in 2025, and which contributors can reasonably be expected to decline? And who is reliable enough to be able to reasonably expect the same level of performance? Of course, pitching is more volatile, especially on the reliever side, so depth is probably more crucial on this front.

On the position player side, the needed changes over this off-season (and perhaps next):

1. Another solid starter for 2025 would be nice.

2. A bridge reliever to replace Kittredge.

3. Find a replacement for Helsley

4. Looking to 2025, they need more starters

Here is a thumbnail summary for each position player projected for the 2025 roster:

If Gray decides he wants out, I could see the Cardinals taking the option on Gibson for 2025 and moving Gray's contract. That would be a salary dump, with no real prospect coming back.

For a reset year, this starting 5 isn't horrible. Probably middling, which might even be OK if the offense was good. The two concerns here are 1) There isn't much depth beyond these 5 in case of injury and 2) there is some performance uncertainty, particularly with Mikolas and the two young guys. Some folks might wish Mikolas was moved or released, but neither will happen this off-season. If he is really bad, he could be a DFA candidate later in 2025. If he is passable, they will just let his contract expire.

Of course, the big question here is whether Helsley is moved. Given Gabe's assessment of comp trades, the opportunity looks bleak. I'd suspect the Cardinals will accept a $7m reliever and take the QO option at the end of 2025 or move him at the deadline if someone bowls them over. That's a tough one in that the 2026 QO will be north of $20m. That is a quintessential Cardinal play, though.

They need to find one more solid RH reliever, at least. They did reasonably well last off-season, maybe they can repeat that success again.

The lefty pool looks well established and might present opportunity to move a guy to help bring something back.

These guys are question marks all the way. A lot of times, the Cardinals bring in guys like this to camp and just let it sort itself out. Fangraphs says Thompson has no option years remaining. Skyricesq says he has one after studying the very particular particulars of options. If he has that one, he is probably secure on this roster for another year to have a chance to establish himself. O'Brien looked great in spring, got hurt and then looked terrible. What will he be? I suspect we won't know until spring. Fortunately for him, no one appears emerging to take his roster spot, for now.

From a bullpen shuttle standpoint, I'd expect that the Cardinals are mostly OK with this group. These kinds of guys move up and down along the I-55 corridor when injuries or over-use occur. They often come in as chase or long relievers. They have little effect on wins and losses because they rarely pitch when their results can move the WPA needle.

As comfortable as I suspect the Cardinals are with the Memphis shuttle of relievers, I'd suspect that they are equally uncomfortable with any of these options if a starter is needed.

I'd go further and expect that if a starter is needed for more than one spot start, non-roster player Quinn Matthews might be the likeliest candidate. He'd be the proverbial #6 or #7 starter. And when needed, he will push someone off the 40-man. Hence would be a guy to come up and get a single spot start (say, a 27th man for a double header). He is on the roster, needs exposure, but they need to manage his innings in a way that is not compatible with a major league gig for more than a start (or two).

The summary

To improve this roster on the pitching side, there is not nearly the complexity as on the position player side. I can see the standard Cardinal approach playing out here.

1. Starter depth will be a concern
2. Starter depth beyond 2026 is a huge concern - while they can never project a rotation two years out with much reliability, having only Pallante and McGreevy under control is definitely a weakness. I expect them to look to acquire at least one guy this off-season that projects to stay beyond 2025. Cost constraints may prevent that, though.
3. Replacing Helsley - I don't see them re-upping him, but probably not trading him, either. They will need to spend 2025 finding an adequate replacement if they are to be competitive in 2026.

Who may go

When the dust settles and the off-season is done, I really don't expect anyone of consequence to go. Gray might, if he wants out. At the end of the day, this side of the roster might look a lot like last year.

I wonder about the potential for a Gray trade. Ignoring the NT clause. He is definitely not a bad pitcher, but decline is on his horizon and his big paydays are upcoming ($25m in 2025, $35 mil in 2026). We may have seen hints of decline this year, with his uneven performance at times. Will anyone (definitely not the Yanks) want to take on the remaining $60m on his contract to get declining performance as cost increases?

The Mikolas and Matz contracts are more in the albatross category, but I think they'll see the contracts as mostly unmovable. In reality, if they can get 3 WAR out of the two of them combined that will balance out the $30m in payroll. That is a big if, though. But they'll try to finesse it. That's what they do.

Some overall roster construction considerations

It will take another year or so to determine if the Cardinals pitching pipeline will strengthen. I anticipate part of this whole "reset" promotion is this very situation. There is hope, but it is on the horizon, and the horizon is where you find (or not) the end of the rainbow. Lin, Saladin, Hence and a few others provide hope. But not so much in 2025.