Da'Mon Blackshear vs. Cody Gibson prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 104

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As the second fight of the UFC Vegas 104 main card, bantamweight veterans Da’Mon Blackshear (15-7-1) and Cody Gibson (21-10) collide. It is time to continue our UFC odds series with a Da’Mon Blackshear-Cody Gibson prediction and pick.

Blackshear, 30, is coming off a first-round submission of former Division II wrestler Cody Stamann at UFC Vegas 100. The win ended a brief two-fight skid that saw him suffer his first loss by knockout. Following his win over Stamann, Blackshear is now an even 3-3-1 in the UFC, making UFC Vegas 104 a pivotal moment of his career.

Gibson, 37, is looking to extend his two-fight win streak, his first since 2021. During his second run in the UFC, Gibson has gone 2-2, following up two losses with a pair of victories. The Atascadero Middle School PE teacher is coming off a dominant decision win over Chad Anheliger at UFC Edmonton in November 2024.

Here are the UFC Vegas 104 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.

UFC Vegas 104 Odds: Da’Mon Blackshear-Cody Gibson Odds

Da’Mon Blackshear: -455

Cody Gibson: +350

Over 2.5 rounds: -210

Under 2.5 rounds: +160

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Why Da’Mon Blackshear Will Win

Blackshear’s 3-3-1 UFC record suggests mediocrity, but he is much closer to the top of the division than he is to the bottom. His three losses all come against elite opposition, including one that came one week after his twister submission of Jose Johnson. That does not include his UFC debut, which ended in a draw against Youssef Zalal, who is currently ranked at featherweight.

As a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Blackshear is contestably one of the best grapplers in the division. Though he can struggle against heavy top pressure at times, his above-average cardio allows for a high activity rate in such exchanges. He averages 1.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes, one of the highest rates in the weight class. Coming off a submission win over Stamann, he has never looked better.

Despite his size, Blackshear, like Gibson, wants to engage in grappling. However, if the fight stays on the feet, he is the more athletic and competent striker. Gibson loves to pressure and throw volume but has no method behind his chaotic striking, which does not typically inflict much damage.

Why Cody Gibson Will Win

As good as Blackshear is as a grappler, he struggles against strong wrestlers. Gibson, a former collegiate wrestler and current wrestling coach, can exploit that. Of Blackshear’s seven career losses, he was out-wrestled and controlled for the majority of four of them. His lone amateur loss also came against UFC veteran Tony Gravely, a former Division I wrestler. Blackshear has only beaten one of his four opponents who landed a takedown against him.

While the two share a similar takedown rate in the UFC, Gibson’s pace and pressure are not like any opponent Blackshear has ever faced. If he sticks to his guns, Gibson will be in Blackshear’s face from the opening bell, an approach he has yet to see in the Octagon. It is not as if Blackshear cannot match that pace, but the last time he faced a similar style, he was practically blanked by Danny Sabatello at Titan FC 67.

Grappling with Blackshear is a dangerous game, but three of the four fighters he was unable to beat in the UFC logged more control time against him. Gibson is a true veteran of the game and has seen almost everything there is to offer.

Final Da’Mon Blackshear-Cody Gibson Prediction & Pick

This fight is a battle between two of the tallest bantamweights who both want to take the fight to the mat. Both fighters have extensive backgrounds in wrestling, but Blackshear is the more technical and advanced grappler. While Gibson is a strong and experienced wrestler, he has mostly abused his size advantage, which will not be there against Blackshear.

While their recent UFC records indicate similar success, Blackshear’s strength of schedule is significantly higher than that of Gibson. Blackshear’s three UFC losses are to Mario Bautista, Montel Jackson and Farid Basharat, two of whom are currently ranked in the top 15, with the other just on the outskirts. Gibson, meanwhile, is coming off consecutive layup fights against Anheliger and Brian Kelleher, neither of whom is currently on the roster.

Whenever Gibson faces a similar opponent to Blackshear who can match his ground game, he has struggled. Despite his size and reach, Gibson is virtually a non-striker, landing no more than 18 significant strikes in each of his last three fights. While he has not been finished in quite some time, he is prone to leaving openings in scrambles the longer a fight goes. He can be tough to submit, but Blackshear has picked up seven of his last 10 wins by submission, including two of his three in the UFC.

Final Da’Mon Blackshear-Cody Gibson Prediction & Pick: Da’Mon Blackshear by submission (+225)

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