UFC 307 predictions
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UFC 307, in some ways, feels like a stopgap.
To be fair, there's nothing wrong with the title fights on offer Saturday. Yes, Alex Pereira should be fighting Magomed Ankalaev, but Khalil Rountree Jr. has done more than enough to warrant a title shot, and stylistically, this main event promises to be a crowd-pleaser.
And yes, Julianna Peña waltzing back into a title shot against Raquel Pennington after almost 800 days on the sidelines feels icky, but other than Kayla Harrison, is there anyone else on the women's side at 135 pounds that you're clamoring to see fight for the title? Norma Dumont? The matchmakers work with what they have.
But if we're being honest with ourselves, what we want to see is Pereira take care of business, Pennington and Peña settle their beef without controversy, and Harrison impress enough in her main card bout against Ketlen Vieira to set up the most intriguing women's bantamweight title fight since Peña's rematch with Nunes.
So cross your fingers nothing weird happens.
In other main card action, the GOAT Jose Aldo looks hold off rising bantamweight contender Mario Bautista, and Roman Dolidze returns to middleweight to face two-division competitor Kevin Holland.
What: UFC 307
Where: Delta Center in Salt Lake City
When: Saturday, Oct. 5. The early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. ET with three fights on ESPN+. The four-fight preliminary card begins at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and ESPNews, followed by the five-fight main card at 10 p.m. ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in MMA Fighting's Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Alex Pereira (1, P4P-2) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (10)
Alex Pereira by knockout. Done.
With that predictable prediction out of the way, let's examine a few less likely scenarios just for the sake of conversation.
- Khalil Rountree turns the tables on "Poatan," befuddling him in the standup for one or two rounds before smoking him with a no-doubt KO shot to shock the world. I mean, he's called "The Glory Killer" for a reason and there's no bigger former Glory star right now than Pereira.
- Pereira and Rountree battle tooth-and-nail for 25 minutes, giving us one of the best fights of the year—nay, all time, with the victor narrowly eking out a decision win. It's hard to imagine these two throwing for five rounds and not landing a world-ender, but you never know.
- Pereira fools everyone by mixing the martial arts, channeling his mentor Glover Teixeira and taking Rountree to the mat at will. This D-I All-American/ADCC Champion hybrid version of Pereira grinds his way to a 50-45 win on the cards, much to the confusion of the gathered Utahns.
There's a sick party of me that wants to see Scenario 3 unfold, but I've never been one to pick a long shot, so let's play it safe and say the champ finishes Rountree in the second to set himself up for a huge matchup in 2025.
Pick: Pereira
Raquel Pennington (2, P4P-9) vs. Julianna Peña
Julianna Peña recently told MMA Junkie that she doesn't believe in altitude training because the past two times she competed at elevation in Colorado and in Utah, she didn't feel any ill effects. Maybe someone should remind her that she lost both of those fights?
Now, one of those losses was a decision to DeAnna Bennett that Peña disputes to this day, the other was an armbar submission loss to Valentina Shevchenko, so no shame in that either. But the fact is that she is 0-2 fighting at altitude and that can't be ignored in a bout that's likely to go five rounds, and against an opponent who is born and raised in Colorado.
Peña is essentially swimming to Atlantis to fight Aquaman.
Admittedly, Raquel Pennington isn't giving off rippling Jason Momoa vibes, but I'm not sure that's a requirement to beat Peña. "The Venezuelan Vixen" will want to pressure her way to a win, but Pennington has rarely been overwhelmed by any opponent except for Amanda Nunes. And Peña ain't Nunes.
The good news is I think this stylistic matchup will prove to be more entertaining than Pennington's fight with Mayra Bueno Silva (what a high bar) and we should have a definitive winner in the end, so we can move on to Pennington vs. Harrison (spoiler!).
Pennington by decision.
Pick: Pennington
Jose Aldo (7) vs. Mario Bautista
It's going to be kind of weird watching Jose Aldo and Mario Bautista square off, because there's so much of Aldo's DNA in this current generation of lighter weight fighters. Bautista was in high school when prime Aldo was shredding WEC and UFC competition. Now he has to face down the best to ever do it.
This is such an unfair comparison to make, but the fact is that Aldo has only lost to the very best. Merab Dvalishvili. Petr Yan. Marlon Moraes. Alexander Volkanovski. Max Holloway. Conor McGregor. With the exception of the loss to Moraes (as close a decision as you'll find), those are all UFC champions. Bautista is great, but a future UFC champion? I'm skeptical.
I could be looking at this all wrong. Maybe their fight will signal both the rise of Bautista as a true contender and provide a clear picture of Aldo's current ceiling. But Bautista hasn't proven himself against elite competition yet, so if anyone is due for a reality check, it's him. Going from Benito Lopez, Guido Cannetti, Da'Mon Blackshear, and a spiritless Ricky Simon to Aldo is going to give Bautista some serious whiplash.
Look for Aldo to be just a little sharper and a little craftier en route to an entertaining decision win.
Pick: Aldo
Kayla Harrison (1, P4P-12) vs. Ketlen Vieira (4)
Kayla Smash!
We talk about athleticism being a cheat code all the time and that's just one reason why Kayla Harrison is expected to demolish Ketlen Vieira. When you add in a work ethic that's in the 99th percentile, you can see why many fans are just counting the days until she has UFC gold around her waist.
Vieira is no walkover, let's be clear about that. Outside of one disappointing performance against Irene Aldana, Vieira has gone the distance with the best of them and holds wins over former champions Holly Holm and Miesha Tate, as well as one-time title challengers Cat Zingano and Sara McMann. She's a perfectly respectable B-tier contender.
But Harrison has been a Grade-A prospect since Day 1 and if her win over Holly Holm is any indication, she's at or near the peak of her powers. That's bad news for Vieira who will test Harrison early before eventually succumbing to an unstoppable force.
Pick: Harrison
Roman Dolidze (14) vs. Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze should have just stayed at light heavyweight, right?
He'd be giving up size, but coming off of a short-notice decision over Anthony Smith, the 36-year-old Georgian was realistically only a couple of wins away from a title shot in a thin division. Middleweight has been far more competitive in recent years and in Kevin Holland, Dolidze isn't even fighting a true 185er. Then again, perhaps like Holland, it's just about cashing those checks and going home to your family. Respect.
Holland has made strides with his grappling defense, but I can't help but picture Dolidze exploiting that once-fatal weakness and opting to tackle Holland to the canvas. Dolidze is hittable, so Holland's exciting striking style could carry him to a win if this stays on the feet. Difficult matchup to call.
I don't like how much size Holland gives up in this division and I think it will be his undoing. Dolidze mixes in power punches with timely tackles to beat Holland on the cards and jump back into the middleweight contender pool.
Pick: Dolidze
Preliminaries
Stephen Thompson (10) def. Joaquin Buckley (15)
Marina Rodriguez (7) def. Iasmin Lucindo (14)
Cesar Almeida def. Ihor Potieria
Alexander Hernandez def. Austin Hubbard
Ryan Spann def. Ovince Saint Preux
Carla Esparza def. Tecia Pennington
Court McGee def. Tim Means
