The future of the rotation

07/25/2024 09:00 AM

The possibilities are limitless

I'm going to be honest. I have no idea what the future of the Cardinals' starting rotation looks like. I'm not sure the Cardinals do either. I do not mean this as a bad thing, believe it or not. The Cardinals have crafted a situation where there are almost limitless possibilities, where it can be an expensive, free-agent driven rotation or they could go the homegrown route with a free agent starter or two.

One of the main reasons for this is because the Cardinals have a rotation full of pitchers on short-term contracts. Both Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson have one-year contracts with a team option for next season. Steven Matz and Miles Mikolas have contracts that end at the end of next season and it's at least a moderate threat that Matz won't even be in the rotation plans for next season, whether that's because of a trade or being put in the bullpen. Lastly, what constitutes a long-term contract is the team's commitment to Sonny Gray, who is simply here one year longer than anybody else.

It's not just that the current rotation is short term. There's also the Cardinals' system itself, which is filled to the brim with starting pitching prospects who could start at the MLB level. Tink Hence, the best of the bunch, is a top 100 prospect who is essentially ready for AAA. Quinn Mathews is probably a top 100 prospect at this point as well who made it to AA by his 14th professional start. I am a noted skeptic of Cooper Hjerpe, but his K rate is holding steady in AA so far. Tekoah Roby has as good of potential as anyone in the system if he stays healthy. And Max Rajcic also made it to AA fast and is holding his own in a hitter's league at 22 in his second professional season.

And that's just AA. Admittedly, AA has the vastly better pitching prospects and the more likely ones to actually start. But in a way, that makes things more confusing. Because we don't actually know when they'll be ready. The more "MLB-ready" the pitching prospect is, the less certainty there seems to be that they'll actually be able to start.

For instance, Gordon Graceffo has 35 AAA starts now and he has just a 20.8 K%, which doesn't typically translate to the majors, especially with a not particularly low BB rate or GB rate. He can most likely pitch in the bullpen right now. But he's a former top 100 prospect and if he can just regain his velocity again, boom he can probably start at the MLB level.

And he's among the more unlikely to start. Sem Robberse is the youngest at Memphis and has the best K/BB among the plausible starters. It seems like Michael McGreevy, if he isn't already, is very close to being a passable 5th starter. Adam Kloffenstein is just 23 and has a million different pitches. Ian Bedell isn't young at this point, but he's reached AAA in what is effectively his second pro season.

And of course, Zack Thompson who did it for 9 starts last year, Matthew Liberatore who has flashed what he's capable of at times and is by the way the same age as Graceffo, Bedell, and McGreevy turned his age a couple weeks ago. Easy to forget how young he is since we've seen him for a few years now.

There's a third factor too: money. We don't know what the Cards' budget will be. We don't even really know how much money they'll be spending going into the offseason with option years on Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Giovanny Gallegos, and Keynan Middleton. We don't know who will be traded to free up money. If they kept the roster intact and picked up the option on Gibson and nobody else, they'd have a team salary of around $165 million.

I guessed on the arbitration figures to arrive at that. But Pallante might not be eligible for Super Two (and Gorman too especially if he's ever sent down). They could trade Matz and at least some of his $12.5 million salary. They could trade Dylan Carlson and his figure of about $2.5-3 million. They could even reject Gibson's option. There's room for a free agent salary by shedding just a little bit of salary. And frankly, Sonny Gray's deal proves there's ways to add a starter even with that original $165 million figure.

The way the Cardinals have constructed the current set-up of the rotation, they could do almost anything. I needed to write this post before the deadline, because the deadline could change things. The Cardinals are effectively one rotation spot short for 2025 if you assume Lynn or Gibson's option is rejected, but not both, and also that Steven Matz is not a depended-on member of the rotation. (You also have to assume Pallante is a lock which he is not) With a trade for a pitcher with team control beyond 2024, the 2025 rotation is probably predictable.

But let's say they trade for Erick Fedde, the most Cardinals move possible. First off, what starting pitching prospects are going to Chicago? Secondly, what does the 2026 rotation look like? Because leaving at the end of 2026 are: Mikolas, Matz, Fedde, and Lynn/Gibson with Gray leaving the very next year.

Seriously, the current 2026 rotation is Sonny Gray and who the hell knows. I mean that's a long way away in baseball years and a year and half of extra development from 12 different viable starting pitching prospects. The rotation could be Sonny Gray and four dudes from the farm system for all we know. It's kind of fascinating.

I can't remember a time like this in my fandom personally. The rotation hasn't always been good, but it's always been pretty predictable in terms of who was going to be pitching for the next few years. Aside from a free agent signing here or there.

The Cardinals surely have some sort of calculus they use to determine how many starting pitchers they are counting on from the farm to provide starting pitching. For 2024, the answer was clearly about 0.5 of a starting pitcher plus depth. What's the answer for 2025? For 2026? Are they currently counting on 2 pitchers to emerge by 2026 or more? They have a number. And it could change by the end of 2024.

It's just really interesting to me how much pressure there is to find at least two starting pitchers from the farm for the 2026 rotation, which means the 2025 season is very important. But I suspect the Cardinals are going to approach 2025 similarly to 2024 in having a mostly defined, proven rotation and that injuries and spot starts are how guys are going to have to prove themselves. It seems difficult to find two guys you are happy to be on the Opening Day rotation in 2026 with this strategy. One guy, sure. That's basically what is happening to Andre Pallante.

But.... you can't really just give the ball to Liberatore or Gordon Graceffo or Robberse every fifth day hoping they just figure it out if you're trying to win. The ceiling of next year's rotation if they make no moves is not going to be any better than this year's and it'll have a noticeably worse floor. Signing a #2 would mitigate this. It would also put you in a better position to give rotation spots to less than proven guys in 2026.

The conundrum is anybody with a reasonable asking price in prospects is only going to be under team control through next year, and then you don't have the #2 guy for 2026 or the reps maybe necessary to find multiple replacements for 2026. Which is why it actually makes sense to just sign a dude. But we know how that goes. So I don't know what the Cardinals are going to do, but I am going to be fascinated to find out.