After Season Afterthoughts, a Post Regular Seasonal Journal Part 1

10/16/2024 09:00 AM

I went to baseball savant to start one project about different types of WAR, but ended up glued to their site for other reasons. Who are bad postseason performers? And of course more Album Hall of Fame inducting. Mid October 2024 edition.

Welcome to Wednesday VEB! First off I would like to ask you guys to list the different types of WAR, and what you think about each defensive component's variance from metric to metric. For example baseball reference and fangraphs have much different ways to come up with a number value for defense. I'd like to hear about any other types out there. How does for example ESPN decide its WAR value total?

But that will be for another week. This time I want to wander around on Baseball Savant's website and provide you with those discoveries, almost like a live reporter wandering around in some simulation of a website, discovering different things.

In my meandering way I started one thing and did another, and so let's talk about one of the most entertaining things to watch in the 2024 Cardinals experience: Masyn Winn throwing runners out at first base, and maybe fracturing Paul Goldschmidt's hand over the year. I'm trying to be funny and/or exaggerating but, I don't know really. Baseball Savant uses statcast, and Statcast has an Arm Strength leaderboard.

Masyn Winn is the 2nd most bolt throwing shortstop in MLB! The only player who threw it harder was Oneil Cruz who threw 99 mph from the outfield, so it's not that surprising. But there we are talking about averages. How did Cruz and Winn peak out? Cruz threw a ball 103.3 mph (probably from the outfield) and Winn once threw a ball to first at 101.2 mph. So no matter how you slice it Cruz is a freak of nature but Winn is surely the hardest throwing shortstop around, when considering he threw the ball 300 more times this year than Cruz did.

If you leave out Cruz but also leave out players who didn't throw as much, like Arizona's Blaze Alexander, Winn is more similar to Ely de la Cruz, but Masyn throws on average 92.7 mph, 1.7 mph faster than Ely's.

de la Cruz's peak arm strength was 96.2 mph. To put this into context only 5 shortstops throw in the 90's range, the Nationals Nasim Nunez being the other player not yet mentioned (only 119 throws).

Besides Masyn Winn, do we have any other cannon arms on the team? Yes! Jordan Walker.

Walker throws the ball hard, and is a top ten in MLB when it comes to his average throw velocity. And who is the third cannon on the team? Lars Nootbaar! Lars' and Jordan's maximum velocity throws tied at 98.6 mph. Well I suppose all that sounds like bragging. Who were our soft tossers?

Paul Goldschmidt was one of the softest throwers in all of baseball. He's in Ryan Mountcastle territory (Orioles 1B)! ...and also Rhys Hoskins who barely could throw any harder than Paul. Who is the lightest thrower in all of MLB you might ask? Ryan Noda. Other Cardinals who just don't throw very hard are Thomas Saggese (small sample size obviously) and Nolan Gorman (probably because second base and of course first base don't really have a need to throw the ball too hard), while Nolan Arenado approaches average throw velocity but no cannon there at 84.2 mph.

Approaching average or right around there are Victor Scott II and Brendan Donovan. And just in case you were wondering, Michael Siani doesn't have a bad arm, it's just average, whereas...

Michael Siani's range is top flight, elite, and prevents runs from happening. His range is tied for second best in all of baseball with Jose Siri of the Rays, and only bettered by Jacob Young of the Nationals. Michael Siani is the 12th most valuable position player in MLB by Fielding Run Value. I think I want to see this guy in center field as much as possible, unless our pitching somehow gets better than average.

Nolan Arenado is still a top tier defensive third baseman. He may not have an amazing throwing arm but he is still unbelievably talented at the hot corner. Here is something funny: Brendan Donovan is a top 6 defensive left fielder, even with a meh throwing arm. He's just rangier than a lot of guys who play left field. What a fun player.

It's time to pore over offense, and the Cardinals had such a depressing hitting situation that this shouldn't be very fun to talk about, right? I mean, they fired their dang hitting coach.

Well, it's not like they couldn't hit the ball at all. The Cardinals offense collected 1,363 hits, which is more than the Brewers, Mets, Twins, and Yankees, and the 8th most hits in MLB. But these hits were not used very effectively, it would seem. 257 doubles. 1363 - 257 = 1105. 21 triples. 1105 - 21 = 1084. And the Cardinals hit 165 home runs, better than 7 teams and tied with the Angels. So that means they hit 919 singles.

The Cardinals didn't strike out a lot and didn't take a lot of walks. They got challenged. And didn't end up causing enough damage. The Cardinals were towards the top in producing batted balls, but towards the bottom in barreling the ball. They made a lot of contact, but not quality contact. While I do think they were a little unlucky with sequencing they aren't good where it counts with a low Hard Hit % and below average launch angle.

In 2024 it appears they were focusing on contact and putting the ball into play, but also taking a lot of strikes down the middle. Getting this extra look at pitches may have helped them make more contact and maybe even strike out less, but it doesn't matter since this team could not score enough runs on their way to those 919 singles.

What player was your favorite Cardinals defender in 2024? Siani's elite center field play, Arenado's resurgent range at the hot corner, or Winn's cannon arm throwing out runners at first?

Now I want to shift to postseason discussion, and currently I am thinking about bad postseason performances. Who have been among the worst postseason pitchers, and hitters? To do this I am going to first focus on players that have seen the postseason the most. Calling them out will only be more meaningful this way. Then I'll throw in a few other players who were counted on, but did not produce. Ok, Aaron Judge is making me contemplate this, ngl.

• First off, the most obvious culprit pitching-wise, Clayton Kershaw. Clayton has pitched basically a full season of postseason games, so this is quite stable: 4.49 ERA. Not good. Who is he most comparable to, pitching that many innings? In his range are Roger freaking Clemens and one of the best pure pitchers of all time: Greg Maddux. They are all in the 190-199 IP range. Clemens and particularly Maddux were much better postseason pitchers.
• CC Sabathia and Zach Greinke were also north of 4.0 ERA with a substantial number of postseason innings pitched. They just were not their usual selves in big games.
• David Price was worse than Kershaw in the postseason with a 4.62 ERA.
• Some of the worst postseason pitchers by FIP are Andy Pettitte, Tom Glavine, Catfish Hunter, CC Sabathia, Zack Greinke, David Cone, Chris Carpenter (who was good ERA-wise), Charles Nagy, Al Leiter, and Framber Valdez.
• Take your pick between Al Leiter and Charles Nagy as the worst performing postseason pitcher of all time with over 80 IP.
• Matt Morris was also particularly bad in the postseason, something I had forgotten about. I suppose I moreso remember his regular season pitching. Morris pitched 73.1 postseason innings at 4.05 ERA, 5.06 FIP, and 5.30 xFIP.
• But wait, there's more! Tim Wakefield pitched 72 postseason innings at 6.75 ERA and 5.80 FIP. Now there's another contender!
• Another reason not to revisit Lance Lynn: 5.64 postseason ERA in 60.2 IP.
• Andy Benes was not a good postseason pitcher. In 54.1 IP: 5.47 ERA, 5.56 FIP.
• Todd Stottlemyer, Bret Saberhagen, and C.J. Wilson are three more pitchers who were trusted time and again in the playoffs, but to no avail.
• More bad Cardinals postseason pitchers? Yes. Michael Wacha and Kyle Lohse each pitched 46 innings of postseason baseball, 5.21 and 4.86 ERA = a bad performance. The FIPs were barely under 5.
• The Dodgers may have been lucky that Tyler Glasnow is injured. In 45.2 postseason innings he is at 5.72 ERA with a FIP north of 5.
• And there's a few more! Yordano Ventura 4.99 FIP, Jose Urquidy 5.58 FIP, Russ Ortiz 5.73 ERA, Ice Box Chamberlain 5.32 ERA, Scott Kazmir 5.72 FIP, Woody Williams 5.66 ERA, AJ Burnett 6.37! ERA, all with a minimum 40 innings pitched in the postseason.

Who is the worst postseason pitcher in history?

Offensively, who continuously played like a below average hitter in the postseason?

• Kenny Lofton had 438 postseason plate appearances, batted .247 with very little power, and didn't get on base much. At least he stole bases but that's not a very good player at 75 wRC+ in the postseason with nearly a whole season's worth of PA.
• Tino Martinez was not good at all, while seeing the playoffs more often than most: .233 BA in the postseason. Next to no power, and not stealing like Kenny.
• Rafael Furcal was worse in the playoffs, with a .227 BA and again, no power. 285 PA.
• Cody Bellinger is also terrible in the postseason, with a .211 BA, but more home runs in 267 PA.
• Reggie Sanders was awfully cringe in the playoffs, batting .195 with an OPS of .609.
• Josh Reddick had a .262 OBP in the postseason.
• Jon Jay hit no home runs in the postseason despite seeing 249 PA. Only a .225 BA!
• Alfonso Soriano's 49 wRC+ is the only player with a sub 50 wRC+ and at least 180 PA in the postseason.
• Nick Swisher, Prince Fielder, Sandy Alomar Jr, and Mike Moustakas are four more big names who really stunk it up in the postseason, all of which are at 51-56 wRC+ holy stench!
• Tony Womack and Walt Weiss = utterly useless on offense in the playoffs. The worst numbers I've seen yet, in the 30s of wRC+ but saw plenty of playoff plate appearances.
• Can we do worse? Yes, much worse! Jason Heyward is lost in the dark in the postseason. He doesn't walk in the postseason and the batting average is beyond awful at .145! 13 wRC+ in 148 playoff PA!
• Joe Girardi was nearly as bad as Jason Heyward! .184 BA with no power. 20 wRC+.
• Pete Kozma at least hit a home run, Joe.
• Dan Wilson of Seattle somehow performed at -39 wRC+, perhaps proving he is beyond terrible! Sub .100 BA, almost no walks, no power but 93 postseason plate appearances.
• Some surprising names on the postseason shit list: Eric Davis, Andres Gallaraga, Andre Dawson, and Adam Jones all stunk it up at playoff hitting.
• Cardinal fan and org favorites Skip Schumaker and John Mabry were not good postseason hitters.

So is Aaron Judge actually a bad postseason hitter? No, this is a myth I made up in my mind. He's about average in the postseason. It is just weird to think of this giant of a hitter, a legend, can play barely above replacement level sometimes. He has no home runs this postseason, which is strange since he usually does hit home runs in the playoffs. (Correction: he did hit a home run this postseason). In fact, he's hit a home run in about every 16.6 playoff plate appearances! (now more than that!) No where near the other guys listed here.

Vote for the worst postseason hitter!

I included so many! I don't know who has personal grudges against these players, lost bets because of them, or if they simply were a big letdown for you in the playoffs, this is just for fun so go for it! Vote. Or if you want to look up all the performances and evaluate sabermetrically, that will help balance out the voting.

Last weeks poll results

As of 10.14.24 382 votes are in. 77 votes, or 20% of our VEB poll sample believe that the Cardinals have failed us this season. They have higher hopes than most and have set the bar high for the organization. And that's fine, because we are supposed to be the best of the National League here in St Louis. A few wins over .500 isn't success. Because winning in the postseason is success. And we haven't done that in a while now.

52 voters or 14% of VEB got more cerebral and didn't think this team was even mediocre, because of the ugly run differential. We overperformed and should not be counted upon to do the same again with the same roster. These people didn't think this was a good team, but didn't really admit to it being a total failure.

Most of VEB took the record at face value, which indicates a middling team. Mediocrity isn't very fun, but it's better than last year's last place performance. It doesn't matter how they got there, they just improved and tied for second place, bolstered by a good bullpen, good enough pitching, and some flashy defense from a few players. If it weren't for the lackluster offense, the team might have made the playoffs. 253 votes or right around ²⁄₃ of Viva El Birdos voted for this, and this indicates some hope for the future. Especially given a more advanced change in upper management going into 2025 and beyond.

Maybe this season and last season were actually the rebuilding years. And next year will complete the transition.

Album Hall of Fame Induction

...for the non musical fans out there, or if you just have no interest in this kind of music, please feel free to skip the rest of this article, as there's a lot more to read, thanks for reading the baseball part!

The first induction, 'Giant Steps' by John Coltrane, had to be an important one, a true classic, and tied to baseball at least a little. Those were my rules for the first inductee.

But since we are now in spooky season in the middle of October, having watched some cheesy scary stuff (Gremlins 2 anyone?), I am going to quickly shift into some darker album territory. But also, one of my favorite albums of all time! I have been listening to this since high school and college, on a regular basis. I'm going more obscure this time, but just under the surface of household names, since this release was on a big 90's rock star's record label, a subsidiary of Interscope Records if you remember that label. Which was itself also a subsidiary of Geffen/A&M Records.

Trent Reznor's offshoot Nothing Records put out a few very memorable releases in its relatively short lifespan, and this inductee is probably my favorite of those. I am speaking of Meat Beat Manifesto's sprawling 'Subliminal Sandwich', which took up not one but two complete compact discs. It's incredible playing time of around 2 hours and 40 minutes was almost unheard of in the 1990's, except maybe occasionally in the electronic music community. The first disc was the main disc, containing songs with a more rock or pop structure than disc 2, which focused more on trance and rave, even ambient and tribal sounds.

Disc one could actually be described as post-industrial dub hip-hop. It's dark textures and motifs matched up well with the goth and industrial scene, but its overall sound was more dub influenced and even had a noisy hip-hop vibe to it. Main man and vocalist Jack Dangers was joined by guest vocalists and a studio musician (?) tied to Miles Davis 'Bitches Brew' sessions. I cannot find where I got that info from, but it's something that I remember reading years ago.

The album does have a sense of jazz and improvisation to it, created after a move to San Francisco by the British Jack Dangers just before its creation. 'Subliminal Sandwich' is the rare album that grows on you year after year, and decades later I find myself putting on my headphones to experience it yet again, because writing about it requires listening to it. It is so many things put together by one of the best producers to walk the planet. Sampling, performance, studio editing, and a perfect mix masterfully capture this moment in time in a world of growing chaos.

(this headphone experience inspired me to get a trial membership to Tidal streaming, which I hear rewards the artists more while providing a higher quality sound than spotify and youtube music. I like it more than the major music streaming services so far, but I have time to make a decision because it's a long trial period)

This album is not for everyone and that's why I'm writing about it close to Halloween. It's actually dark, full of ominous foreboding. But it also is fun to throw on at a party, with its monster basslines, catchy hooks, and layers of atmosphere where you can hear new things with almost each and every listen. It also works as more of a background ambient album, interestingly enough you can choose between active listening and passive, and have an immersive experience. The album's production provides so much more in headphones, and with loudness comes clarity when rocking some speakers with Subliminal Sandwich.

This album sounds good blasted from car speakers too, and will move floors if played in a club. It's both one of the most real and unreal things I've ever heard, and deserves more recognition and respect. England has spawned some amazing musicians and producers and this is no exception. They can design Future Worlds.

Disc 2 serves up a more ambient, instrumental experience and used to be the one I would throw on when going to bed. I think if anything it might be even better than Disc 1! It is even more avant garde and experimental, but done in such a way that it sounds very purposeful and experience inducing. It's like an audio hallucinogen, while Disc 1 is more like an audio narcotic. Figuratively speaking.

For fans of Nine Inch Nails, trip-hop, experimental industrial music, psychedelia, urban contemporary, & maybe even for fans of dub reggae, jazz, and punk. Might be too dark or heavy for new age, techno, and ambient fans but contains elements of all of the above.

I look forward to having many, many perfect album inductees in the Album Hall of Fame, but there's the first two. 'Subliminal Sandwich' will change your life if you let it, and will be in your ears for the rest of your life if you like. If that has anything to do with hot dogs as a sandwich, I am not gonna go there. But there you have it, I hope it is at least an interesting listen. Ironically enough, the biggest song from the album, 'Asbestos Lead Asbestos' is a cover of an even more obscure band.

"Tricky-esque trip-hop, blissed out atmospherics, industrial hip-hop beats... jarring, infectious... the perfect party tape for the oncoming apocalypse." - NME (8/10)

I'm not sure if I agree that it's "Tricky-esque", but I love the comment "party tape for the oncoming apocalypse" because it's been just that for most of my life. And in the mid to late 90's it did feel like an apocalypse would come! There are so many wildly cool samples from obscure movies and culture on this album, and the album's lyrics are mindbending and ahead of the times, a preview of things to come. The eerie sounds of the space age meet the industrialization of the earth and its inhabitants. Jack Dangers delivers a master class in album production and advanced techniques as a form of soundtrack for a technologically changed world. Released in 1996, it took many by surprise.

'Subliminal Sandwich' has a few dancehall bangers but is for the most part a downtempo lounge affair. Besides a lot of psychedelic production effects and sound design, and very keen musical performances including improvisation, there are exotic instruments incorporated into its sonic world: theremin, mellotron, waterphone, bass clarinet, and the sounds of e-bow can all be found floating around in its airwaves, providing a sonic tapestry for a future that never quite arrives. Despite its low key chill vibes, it still has an edge to it, and is downright funky at times. 10 musicians and producers are listed in the album credits! This album made the rounds even if a bit underground, it was just below the radar. Rolling Stone compared it to an M.C. Escher artwork! Besides being a bit downtempo, the album can be a bit of a downer at times, addressing industrial pollutants, addiction, war, cancer, mental illness, and other tragic themes. Or to keep that Halloween/October horror theme going, here is a song titled "Phone Calls From the Dead".

Well there you have it. I should wrap it up, but words can't say enough about this expansive double disc audio artform. I hope you like it and liked reading about it, or at least enjoyed the baseball savantism. Thanks for checking out my words. 'Til next week!

If you want to hear the incredible headphone experience of this album, and want to try a free trial of Tidal, here's a link to the album https://tidal.com/browse/album/47168724?u or if you already have it, this is a much better rip of the album than what is on youtube