The Cardinals Have a Plan for the Future

10/01/2024 08:00 AM

A new POBO on the way and a revamped focus on player development highlight the Cardinals plans for the future.

In case you missed it somehow, the St. Louis Cardinals held an end-of-the-season state-of-the-organization press conference yesterday that probably left you feeling a number of things. One one hand we got some major questions answered but on the other hand we're still missing some answers and are probably less than enthused about the quality of team the Cardinals will put on the field next year.

There's plenty to unpack and that's what I want to do today.

The Cardinals Have Their Next POBO

This, to me, was the biggest piece of news that came out of the Cardinals end of season press conference. John Mozeliak will finish out his contract as the president of baseball operations and then be replaced by Chaim Bloom at the end of next season.

This is not an unexpected move but I was surprised that the Cardinals announced it so soon. In fact, Bloom has already preemptively signed a 5-year deal to be the next POBO.

This ensures a succession plan to the next leader of the organization as Bloom was able to join the organization in 2024 to evaluate the state of things and get familiar with the Cardinals and will now spend the 2025 season growing his role and the 2026 season and beyond serving as the head shot-caller.

This is a good, comprehensive ramp-up plan that should allow Bloom to hit the ground running and give him time to build his vision for the future.

Bloom is the hire I was hoping the Cardinals would make and I'm glad to see that they have settled on someone who seems to be a perfect fit for an organization that is placing a renewed emphasis on drafting and developing going forward.

This isn't the only insight we got into the front office machinations yesterday, either. Sitting general manager Mo Girsch is out and is being re-assigned to a new role dubbed "vice president of special projects"...whatever that means.

So to recap, the GM is out, the president is the same, and the next president is lined up. How will all of that work next season? Like this:

Make no mistake about it - John Mozeliak is still making the decisions - but with Chaim Bloom taking the mantle after next season, it makes sense to involve him in the decision making process, especially for decisions that have impacts beyond just the 2025 season.

Not to be lost in the shuffle, Katie Woo gave some clarity as to what exactly Girsch was in charge of in his role underneath Mozeliak:

Given this information, it probably makes sense to move on from Girsch as internal player evaluations haven't exactly been a strength for this organization at times. It also makes sense because Bloom will likely want to choose his own lieutenant when he gets the head job. So for now Girsch stays in the organization but in a nebulous role that will likely have much less influence on the front office.

There is one other person worth mentioning as well and that's Oli Marmol.

Marmol seems to be getting an expanded role this year as the Cardinals brain trust seems to think highly of player development skills.

Chaim Bloom will be responsible for choosing the next director of player development and that very clearly will not be the sitting manager but this does make me wonder if a move into the front office could be possible for Marmol if Bloom decides to bring in a new manager when he takes over. That's purely speculation of course but this is an interesting little wrinkle about Marmol.

Obviously player development is a large part of a manager's job but Mo seems to be referring to duties that are outside those of a typical manager.

So the Cardinals have moved on from their GM, chosen a new POBO, and one with heavy experience in player development, and they have handed additional player development responsibilities to their manager. These front office machinations dovetail nicely into our next point.

The Cardinals Are Shifting Their Focus to Player Development

This is the other big takeaway from the press conference, although this plan was announced days before it. But what does this mean?

Well, it means that the Cardinals have fallen behind the times when it comes to player development. That's both in philosophy and infrastructure, though I expect the Cardinals were referring mostly to the latter and to the former in a lesser extent.

We've already seen some changes in this regard with Gary LaRocque, the Cardinals now-former director of player development, stepping down from the role to be replaced by Chaim Bloom, though not in an official capacity. Bloom will reportedly retain his official role of "advisor" but he will be in charge of the Cardinals player development this year with an eye to him taking over the head executive role in the organization in 2026.

We can all grumble about various parts of what was announced during the press conference yesterday but this shift in focus is needed.

Why did the Cardinals have to tie up almost $25 million to give out contracts to back end starters like Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn? It's because they were unable to develop a pitcher who could reasonably slot into the rotation at a fraction of the price. There are also plenty of hitters who have struggled to take the next step, whether it be Jordan Walker or Nolan Gorman, or others.

I do want to add that the lack of proper player development infrastructure isn't some kind of boogeyman that's responsible for every issue we have seen with young players. It also hasn't stopped the Cardinals from developing a number of players, especially hitters, from the minors to the majors. But it does need to be improved. The Cardinals have done an internal evaluation, which is in part why Bloom was initially brought in, and found themselves lacking.

Bill DeWitt II explained it best yesterday:

The other side of this coin, of course, is that funds are limited (or at least that's what DeWitt wants you to believe). And if we think about all baseball money coming from the same pool then money that goes towards player development, coaches, buildings, and programs is taken away from the available money for the major league team.

And because of that we get this quote right here:

Frankly, I don't understand how an increased investment in player development (an increase of an estimated 8-12% according to Mozeliak as reported by Jeff Jones) really needs to lead to any kind of major decrease in payroll but apparently it does. Team financials are murky for a reason after all.

So while the Cardinals are seeming to prioritize the long term health of the organization that is likely going to come at the cost of investment in the major league roster for at least one year but probably the next few years.

In practice, that probably means no more Paul Goldschmidt and maybe a few additional subtractions of players with large contracts and, probably, at least decent trade value. Names like Willson Contreras, and Sonny Gray come to mind here but the Cardinals may also shop Nolan Arenado, Miles Mikolas or Steven Matz, though the return for any of those 3 players likely won't be very strong.

They may also do nothing. When asked what to expect for 2025, Mozeliak didn't give many hints:

Based on what we heard yesterday, though, I wouldn't expect to see an Opening Day roster that is pegged for the playoffs.

The State of the Organization

Let's summarize all of this. The Cardinals have audited themselves and found themselves lacking in key areas. The goal here is clearly to take a small step back in order to take a leap forward with more internal development and investment in infrastructure.

Bill DeWitt III made sure to point out that this isn't a rebuild. It's more of a reset. The Cardinals aren't trying to tear everything down and rebuild from the ground up. Instead they simply want to take what they already have, re-prioritize a little bit, and come out a stronger organization at the end of the process.

So we should expect the team to trim payroll and move on from veterans and players who likely won't be with the team in a few years. On top of the names I already mentioned earlier, this should add Ryan Helsley to the list of names that could be playing elsewhere next season.

But the Cardinals also have plenty of young talent and that is why there's hope that such a reset could be a short one.

Masyn Winn and Brendan Donovan form a nice middle infield core. Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, and Nolan Gorman all are young, promising bats who could get the opportunity to play a defensive position more suited to their skills. In fact, if the Cardinals do indeed move on from Goldschmidt and Arenado, it's not hard to envision a starting infield of two of Jordan Walker Nolan Gorman, or Alec Burleson at the corners and Winn and Donovan up the middle.

The Cardinals could also have a ready-made backstop tandem of Pedro Pages and Ivan Herrera and plenty of young outfielders to give playing time to.

This isn't a team that is going to bottom out. There's plenty of young talent and between the prospects already in the system and the prospects that could get added via trade this offseason there's more on the way.

It's easy to see why the Cardinals think that can do a relatively quick reset and come out stronger on the other end. Now the trick is making that a reality.

Thanks for reading.