The Cardinals are lucky they didn't trade Nolan Arenado to the Astros

12/20/2024 09:00 AM

Earlier this week, the Cardinals almost cleared out some of their salary by trading Nolan Arenado to the Astros. The deal was even agreed upon, and all that was left was for Arenado to say whether or not he would approve a trade to Houston.

Arenado said no, and the deal was off. While the Astros and Cardinals remain in touch, it appears unlikely that Arenado will be headed to Houston. Katie Woo also noted that the Red Sox and Yankees are teams that have shown interest.

In the end, it's a good thing that this trade didn't happen, and I'll explain my thoughts below.

Why the failed Arenado trade is a good thing for the Cardinals

Now, I must stress that I think it's wise for the Cardinals to try and trade Arenado. If they want to "reset" but are also unwilling to trade Ryan Helsley, they have to capitalize on at least one of their assets. Arenado seems like the guy to do this with.

But when you look at the Astros farm system, it's not great, meaning the Cardinals would not have gotten a good return. Keep in mind that Houston traded three of their top prospects to the Blue Jays when they acquired Yusei Kikuchi, so that significantly weakened their system.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not expecting a huge haul for Arenado, and the Cardinals shouldn't expect it either. He's still a great defender, but he's declining offensively and will be 34 next year. He also is owed $74 million over the next three years.

Still, if I'm the Cardinals, I'd prefer to trade him to a team that has a good farm system. The Red Sox come to mind here. It should be noted that future POBO Chaim Bloom was largely responsible for putting together Boston's farm system, and the Cardinals can benefit from his guidance when potentially making a trade with the Red Sox. He knows the ins and outs of the Red Sox organization. More on that another time.

But there are some good prospects that could be had if Arenado is sent to Boston. One I keep seeing in mock trade proposals is right-hander Richard Fitts, who made his debut with Boston this year and posted a 1.74 ERA in four starts. Obviously, it's a small sample size, but it is encouraging nonetheless, and he is one of the top pitchers in their system.

Jeff Passan even noted that to sweeten a deal, the Cardinals could be motivated to eat a little more money. They were prepared to eat up to $20 million in the failed deal with the Astros.

Ultimately, I don't see a trade happening until Alex Bregman has signed. Once that happens, Arenado's market will start to take shape and a deal will happen.