Rooting interest in 2024 playoffs

09/30/2024 08:00 AM

Also some thoughts on Goldschmidt and Arenado

The era of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado is officially over. In their time together, the Cardinals won.... zero playoff games. That's unfortunate. I keep seeing the sentiment that the front office failed them, but that sort of ignores their role in that stat. In his three postseason games for the Cards, Arenado has gone 1 for 12 with the one hit being a single. Goldschmidt went 1 for 11 with two walks.

And I don't know how many wins Goldschmidt cost the Cards with how utterly dreadful he was with RISP, but it wasn't zero wins. He came to the plate with runners in scoring position 165 times and he had... 36 RBIs in those situations. For comparison's sake, Arenado - who was not especially good with RISP (93 wRC+), had 53 RBIs in 143 plate appearances. Am I exaggerating in thinking the difference between, say the year Goldy had and an exceptionally good year with RISP for Goldy might be the difference between an 83 win season and the playoffs??

Anyway, Mike Trout has zero playoff wins. The Angels have truly failed him. But Rafael Devers, Julio Rodriguez, and Vlad Guerrero Jr. have zero playoff wins since 2021, and Brandon Nimmo and Willy Adames have one. These are the players who have a similar WAR to Goldy and Arenado since 2021. And that's including Goldy and Arenado's MVP seasons, they've played more like good players than that company most of the time. And they had their chance in their MVP seasons, but they failed completely.

Moving on to this year's playoffs, let's do a quick rundown of the teams involved, sorted by my personal rooting interest.

Worst Case

12 - Houston Astros

There's an endless amount of reasons to root against the Astros. But honestly the most annoying part of them is they've been to seven straight ALCS. They've been in four World Series and won two of them. I've seen enough of them. New team please.

11 - Atlanta Braves

Controversial choice! A theme of this category and possibly this post is I just want new teams to experience championships. If the Braves on their off year win the World Series, I would have a bigger problem with that the rest of the teams honestly. Their 2021 should be the Cardinals 2011: a very lucky season leading to an incredible run that fails to produce another ring.

10 - Los Angeles Dodgers

To be honest, I don't really hate the Dodgers as much as I could or maybe should. Because for all their dominance, they've only actually won once, which feels wildly disproportionate to the amount of times they were the best team. I root against them less because I have a problem with them winning it this year, and more because I know if they win it, I will have to start hating them and I kind of like that I don't have a problem with them. But it's entirely contingent upon them continuing to not win it all.

9 - New York Yankees

They would be lower, for sure, if their last championship didn't come in 2009. Yankees fans deserve failure for longer though, until at least most of the fans don't remember the late 90s dynasty.

8 - New York Mets

Kind of similar to the Dodgers, except all anticipation, not past-related. It's not that I even think they can build a team in the same way as the Dodgers, it's just that when you can throw unlimited money at the team, they're just always going to be a problem. I don't like Steve Cohen either.

Me problem

7 - San Diego Padres

Yeah I can't handle Mike Shildt winning a world championship. Can't. Sorry, I find a lot of the fanbase insufferable at certain points and I know what things may or may not happen that will make them insufferable and this is one of those things that I think would make Cards fans insufferable. Yeah a lot of why I root for or against things now is because I don't want to deal with how I know Cards fans will respond. It sucks.

This is why this is in a me problem category. I acknowledge my faults. Some of you are rooting for the Padres, I will not be one of them. They are otherwise, admittedly, the perfect team to root for: haven't won in a long time, clearly this window will be short because their financial situation cannot support the rising salaries that are coming.

6 - Milwaukee Brewers

God do I wish they were not in the NL Central. I would be rooting for them if I were not a Cards fan. It's not that I feel obligated to root against NL Central teams, it's that a natural animosity has been built. I look at them on paper and would root for this team. Unfortunately, they can't ever succeed, that would simply be unacceptable.

5 - Kansas City Royals

This is leftover Chiefs hate to be honest. They have the same fans. Actually, the real reason I will feel obligated to root against KC is because of STL people who are like "We got to root for them because of Missouri." That was said a lot for the Chiefs. No, Kansas City is four hours away, they just happen to be in the same state. Chicago is five hours away, nobody tells me I have to root for them.

Also they've had three playoff appearances in the past 40 years, and literally made the World Series every time. Their playoff success is wildly disproportionate in the exact opposite way of the Dodgers. I need some playoff fails before I get on board.

On Board

4 - Philadelphia Phillies

I was going to make this "rooting for," but I'm not really going to root for the Phillies. I mean I kind of will in the sense that I will want them to win more than the team they are facing, but I don't actually want them to win. Don't... have a real reason. Sometimes, the mood just doesn't strike.

3 - Baltimore Orioles

The top three I would all be happy to see win. The Orioles are lowest just because I feel like they're going to have more chances at this than the top two. All potential dynasties don't work out and they may run into budget issues from realizing full potential, but their best players are pre-arb, and they have like 50 top prospects who can't even get playing time so I think they'll be alright.

2 - Detroit Tigers

The Tigers have been more successful than the Orioles, but they haven't really reaped the benefits. The last Tigers World Series was 1984. The last Orioles one was 1983. So not a ton different on that front. They have a good story, haven't won in a while, and we cheap punchline cities need to stick together.

1 - Cleveland Guardians

1948. They've made the playoffs a lot in the last 30 years too. Enough said.

Bonus: Arizona Diamondbacks

They definitely make the top three a top four favorites if it happens. I don't necessarily know where I'd specifically place them, but it wouldn't really matter since I'd root for them until the World Series, and then it would depend on the opponent. Guardians is #1 no matter what though.