Quinn Mathews, Tink Hence #2-3 prospects in the system.

12/30/2024 09:00 AM

Also you get to vote on the fourth best prospect

I wondered if I could skip what would have ended up being the Tink Hence vote. You guys answered conclusively that I could. First off, nobody received more than 10% who was not named Quinn Mathews or Tink Hence. That was my first requirement. If Hence was even vaguely in the vicinity of 3rd place, I'd have to run another vote. He received almost 200 more votes than Thomas Saggese, in a distant third.

Interestingly, the amount of votes Saggese got is nearly the same as the amount of votes "No" got in the second poll. I imagine there was quite a bit of crossover in those votes, so it almost feels like the poll could have been "Who wins the third vote? Mathews/Hence or Saggese." Also I could see a Saggese fan being high enough on him to think he's both a better prospect than Hence and that others might too. The voting didn't reflect that however. Even though Saggese got quite a few more votes than the rest of the players, 92 percent of people didn't vote for Saggese so I can't even call him the favorite of this fourth vote.

As an update, the current VEB top prospects are JJ Wetherholt at #1, then Mathews at #2, and Hence at #3. Now the real games begin. Any prospect site you go to, those three will very likely be in the top three. After that, names can vary wildly. Which makes this a harder job than last year because I had a pretty comfortable top 5 last year so knowing which names to add didn't get particularly difficult until closer to 10 and beyond.

Because I took away two players, for this vote, I'll add three players to the voting. These three players are all players I could see plausibly winning this vote. I might not think it's likely, but the result wouldn't completely shock me. I don't think anyone else realistically has a chance, so I'm not going to clog up the voting unnecessarily. I'm not saying that there's nobody who might think a different player should be 4th, I'm saying there's no way it's the consensus. (And in general, I do think they would get very few votes)

Comparable Player Corner

I'm going to make my job easier this time around. I have in the past done a couple of "Which player do you prefer?" for relievers so that I can get a sense of which relievers to add first. Why limit it to relievers? If there are two players of similar prospect status who either play the same position or play at the same level, and there's really no way for me to know who fans will like more, why not just run a poll ahead of time giving me exactly the information I need.

So introducing comparable player corner, where I will give you two players who are similar in some way to help me know which player I need to add first. Today, we'll be addressing the massive catching depth the Cardinals have. Your two candidates:

Sammy Hernandez, 21-year-old who had a 118 wRC+ in Low A and got a head start on High A, with eight games to finish the season. Acquired in the Genesis Cabrera trade, Hernandez will presumably spend nearly all of 2025 in High A.

Rainiel Rodriguez, 18-year-old who had a 186 wRC+ in the DSL at the age of 17. He walked more than he struck out and hit 10 homers in 41 games. As good as that all is, I would expect him to spend nearly all of 2025 in the complex rookie league.

When I run these polls, it's not with the intention of adding the winner of the poll on the very next vote. This is laying the groundwork for the future. How you vote on Bernal and Crooks will tell me when to add another catcher. This is just to tell me which catcher that is when that time comes.

New additions

Okay, now for the main event. The three players I added are, quite simply, the highest ranked players from last year's vote who aren't already on the list and are still eligible as a prospect. Last year's #4 prospect Tekoah Roby who had an injury-filled 2024, but is still a prospect of note. Last year's #8 prospect Chase Davis, who certainly raised his prospect profile by making it to AA. And #9 prospect Michael McGreevy, who has the benefit of a couple MLB appearances.

Leonardo Bernal, C - 21

LYR: #13

Stats (High A): 96 G, 382 PAs, .270/.343/.419, 9.7 BB%, 22.8 K%, .150 ISO, .333 BABIP, 120 wRC+, 110 DRC+

AA: 14 G, 55 PAs, .204/.291/.286, 10.9 BB%, 16.4 K%, .082 ISO, .231 BABIP, 68 wRC+, 101 DRC+

AFL: 13 G, 51 PAs, .304/.373/.391, 9.8 BB%, 17.6 K%, .087 ISO, .361 BABIP

BP: A 20-year-old catcher who hits from both sides of the plate and has an assortment of well-rounded useful offensive abilities projects to be a starter more often than not."

I'll probably make this point every time, so regular readers just prepare to be kind of annoyed. Those AFL numbers are actually slightly below league average. I'm not trying to dissuade you from voting for him, just I can see how thinking those are fantastic hitting stats, and in most cases it would be, could significantly sway your decision-making on who to vote for.

But I mean he's also a guy who spent a grand total of 14 games in AA. AFL is now considered a league somewhere between High A and AA, so it makes sense that he's almost league average. So if anything, I don't think the AFL numbers should really hurt or help his chances to be honest. Just for some added context, Crooks had horrible numbers in the AFL last year, and look how much that mattered.

Jimmy Crooks III, C - 23

LYR: #16

Stats (AA): 90 G, 371 PAs, .321/.410/.498, 11.6 BB%, 21 K%, .178 ISO, .390 BABIP, 156 wRC+, 124 DRC+

BP: "Defensively, Crooks has the traditional markers of catcherdom: a stout, sturdy frame and an above-average arm, which he used to throw out 33% of opposing baserunners. He should be a solid enough framer and overall receiver to stick behind the dish."

To give you an outline of how Crooks' season went, in the first half, he was very BABIP heavy with not as much power as you'd like. Most of his power actually came in the 2nd half of his season. From June 30th to the end of the year, he hit 9 of his 10 homers and had a .259 ISO. Typically what you want to see is a player improving as the season goes on and Crooks fits that bill.

Chase Davis, OF - 23

LYR: #8

Stats (Low A): 34 G, 131 PAs, .232/.337/.401, 12.7 BB%, 25.1 K%, .169 ISO, .293 BABIP, 111 wRC+, 114 DRC+

High A: 74 G, 315 PAs, .301/.388/.451, 10.1 BB%, 25.1 K%, .150 ISO, .383 BABIP, 144 wRC+, 103 DRC+

AA: 8 G, 31 PAs, .250/.323/.429, 9.7 BB%, 16.1 K%, .179 ISO, .273 BABIP, 103 wRC+, 99 DRC+

BP: "Davis has, at individual times over the last two years, flashed every tool and skill needed for a star outcome. He just hasn't shown them consistently as a pro."

The #1 time to doubt a prospect is when a player is not getting promoted. When Davis repeated Low A to begin this season, it was kind of an issue. But the flip side is also true. When a player is promoted quickly, pay attention. Lars Nootbaar never spent more than 40 games at any one level before making his MLB debut for example. And Davis spent a grand total of 30 games at High A, so it really does seem like the Cardinals think Davis figured something out.

Cooper Hjerpe, LHP - 24

LYR: #7

Stats (High A): 11 GS, 37.2 IP, 35.2 K%, 12.6 BB%, 50.6 GB%, .297 BABIP, 3.35 ERA/3.57 FIP/3.38 xFIP/3.78 DRA

AA: 4 GS, 14.2 IP, 35.1 K%, 14 BB%, 24.1 GB%, .207 BABIP, 3.07 ERA/2.23 FIP/3.63 xFIP/4.76 DRA

BP: "That Sale-ish weirdo delivery gives Hjerpe a lot of the same positives as Sale, although nowhere near as pronounced and with some concerns attached.... He does not yet possess anything close to Sale's ability to spot the ball around the strike zone, and his command and control remain spotty."

It's interesting to me how much the general report on Hjerpe hasn't actually changed. I mean he's succeeding at higher levels, which matters a lot. But he hasn't really done anything to remove reliever risk or injury risk. That said, his strikeout numbers really are eye popping, like those are future ace strikeout numbers. If he can somehow maintain that and stay healthy.

Michael McGreevy, RHP - 24

LYR: #9

Stats (AAA): 27 GS, 150 IP, 21.6 K%, 6.9 BB%, 49 GB%, .314 BABIP, 4.02 ERA/3.86 FIP/4.17 xFIP/4.66 DRA

BP: "He throws basically every offspeed imaginable—something in the gyro slider/cutter range, sweeping slider, change, overhand curve, he's got them all—and the sweeping slider is the best now, but we're not talking an obvious plus offering, either."

McGreevy will be an interesting case study in how good someone can be with great control and individually speaking, no truly standout pitches. It's one of those pitches mixes that, in theory, can be greater than the sum of its parts. If a hitter knows you might throw six different pitches and you can locate it, that's not exactly easy even if you've seen better curves or better fastballs. Or the fact that he has no truly impressive pitches will make it difficult for him to strike anyone out, and it's very difficult to be a good pitcher without striking people out in today's game. His early MLB results are promising.

Tekoah Roby, RHP - 23

LYR: #4

Stats (AA): 7 GS, 33.1 IP, 21.4 K%, 7.8 BB%, 37.4 GB%, 6.75 ERA/6.59 FIP/4.19 xFIP/5.47 DRA

BP: "Roby is a stuff-model darling. The problem is that Roby just can't stay healthy, and even when he pitched this year his stuff wasn't as sharp and he got tattooed."

I mean I could literally not say it better than BP. What's funny is you'd think Tink Hence had Roby's year with how much people are certain Hence can't handle a full workload. The stats don't bother me as much, because 2024 was basically a lost year. If you look at his game log, his first four starts were good, albeit with a homer problem. He had a 28.4 K% and 4.9 BB%. Then he got tagged for 6 ER twice in 3 starts and 10 Ks to 8 BBs in that span. So he was probably pitching hurt. The injury problems are definitely real, I am legit ignoring his stats though.

Thomas Saggese, 2B/3B - 23

LYR: #5

Stats (AAA): 125 G, 528 PAs, .253/.313/.438, 5.9 BB%, 23.1 K%, .186 ISO, .296 BABIP, 93 wRC+, 99 DRC+

AFL: 18 G, 82 PAs, .391/.524/.594, 19.5 BB%, 17.1 K%, .203 ISO, .489 BABIP

BP: "You may remember me from such Cardinals infield success stories as Brendan Donovan and Paul DeJong"

Saggese is the kind of prospect that could be the prospect equivalent of a Rorschach test. You can essentially see whatever you want in how he played. If you are negative on him as a prospect, well to be honest the stats support that. If you are positive on him, you likely saw encouraging defense at the MLB level, and a 22-year-old who held his own in AAA, and absolutely obliterated the AFL. Admittedly, it's a competitive level he really had no business being in, but at least he treated the league like he had no business being in it.