The week ahead: Officially time to give up on the playoffs

01/27/2025 11:54 AM

Time to start looking toward the trade deadline

Maybe you already have.

Maybe you knew that little surge in November and December was nothing more than false hope and fool's gold.

It probably was.

But if you have not already given up on the idea of the 2024-25 Pittsburgh Penguins making the playoffs, this past week should have probably been the breaking point for you. Especially after losing to the Anaheim Ducks and Seattle Kraken the way they did over the weekend by a combined 9-2 margin on the scoreboard.

The road trip continues on Monday night with a road game at San Jose and concludes later in the week at Utah. On paper, those should be two winnable games. But you could have said the same thing about the Anaheim and Seattle games, especially after they beat the Los Angeles Kings the way they did earlier in the week.

It did not matter.

Entering Monday's game in San Jose the Penguins sit in 15th place in the Eastern Conference, seven points out of a Wild Card spot, while pretty much every team ahead of them not only has games in hand on them, they have multiple games in hand on them.

From a mathematical perspective, the current cut-off line for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference is around 91 points.

So let's just say they need 92 points to get in. Or at least have a fighting chance to get in.

They would need to accumulate 44 points over their remaining 31 games. At a minimum. That would require a points percentage of .709 the rest of the way. In other words, the Penguins would need to play like a top-three team in hockey the rest of the way just to have even a chance to secure a playoff spot.

That .... is not going to happen.

Not with Bryan Rust sidelined.

Not with Evgeni Malkin now banged up.

Not with the goaltending situation.

Not with every other defensive flaw.

Not with the fact they are going to start selling off players at some point over the next few weeks.

Even if the Penguins managed to win these next two games on the road trip, that would put them at 52 points in 53 games, lowering their goal to 40 points over the remaining 29 games. They would still need a .689 mark after that. I just can't envision a scenario where they play anywhere even close to that level over an extended period of time.

Now the focus has to be on maximizing trade value and monitoring development for young players on the roster.

When it comes to the former point, that should center around Marcus Pettersson and Drew O'Connor.

When it comes to the latter point, that pretty much only revolves around goalie Joel Blomqvist now that Owen Pickering has been sent back to the AHL for the time being.

As for the games themselves this week, it will be a good test to see just how bad the Penguins are currently playing. Especially when it comes to Monday's game in San Jose.

The Sharks have been awful this season and enter the week having won just four of their past 24 games and are currently on a six-game losing streak. They have allowed at least six goals in each of their past four games.

Former Penguin Mikael Granlund is their leading scorer, but they have two exciting young players in Macklin Celebrini (this year's No. 1 overall pick) and William Eklund. Celebrini has been tremendous in his first taste of NHL action with 35 points in 40 games while also displaying an advanced, well-rounded game for an 18-year-old. He is ferocious in winning puck battles and looks like he has the skills and the juice to be a franchise-changing player.

Still, this is not a particularly good team and if the Penguins lose this game that is going to speak volumes about where they currently are.

On Wednesday they travel to Utah to play a team that already embarrassed the Penguins on home ice.

Utah is a .500 team, but is also going through a slump right now having won just five of its past 15 games.

The week concludes on Saturday with the Penguins returning home for a game against the Nashville Predators. The Predators have been the league's biggest disappointment this season, but are starting to slowly turn things around having won seven of their past 10 games entering the week. They will have a chance to build on that before playing the Penguins with games against Vancouver and Buffalo, with the latter of those games coming the night before they play in Pittsburgh. There should be a scheduling advantage there for the Penguins given that they will be rested the night before.

Realistically speaking, this should be a week where four points and maybe even five or six should be on the table. Even if that does happen, it probably does not do anything to move the needle on this team being competitive for a playoff spot this season.