Yankees' tantalizing outfield prospect has a pivotal 2025 season ahead

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Prospects can be tricky to figure out, and perhaps no one in the Yankees’ organization illustrates this better than Spencer Jones, who has the tools and upside to be a superstar but has a fatal flaw in his game. With a 36.8% strikeout rate, he became the first player in Yankees’ MiLB history to strike out 200 times in a season, and that not only limits his ceiling but also seriously hinders his chances of reaching the Major Leagues in the first place. As a first-round pick in the Yankees’ organization, Jones came with lofty expectations and tons of hype, but is it time to abandon ship?

Progression isn’t always linear; plenty of athletes have taken steps back before getting things going, and in Spencer Jones’ case, perhaps 2024 was a much-needed part of his road to the big leagues. He made tons of adjustments during the year, experimented with various mechanical tweaks, and finished the season with a strong 124 wRC+ in Double-A. There is still time for Jones to live up to his potential, but 2025 is a make-it-or-break-it year for the promising outfielder.

How Spencer Jones Could Carve Out Role on 2025 Yankees

Last season we saw a massive adjustment late in the season from Spencer Jones that saw him change the way he loads, hanging a bit after lifting his leg before ripping off a massive swing. He posted a .949 OPS in his final 18 games with this change, including the postseason where he launched two home runs and helped the Somerset Patriots reach the Eastern League Championship.

With five home runs, five doubles, and two triples over this stretch, what changed most for Jones was the ability to lift the ball in the air consistently, resulting in tons of damage when he put the ball in play. With a 31.2% strikeout rate over this stretch, the swing-and-miss numbers were still high, but compared to a 36.8% K% that’s a pretty notable step in the right direction.

There aren’t many successful prospects who have struck out nearly 37% of the time, but there are multiple above-average regulars who have put up strikeout rates in the 30-32% range. Elly De La Cruz struck out 30.9% of the time in Double-A just a year before reaching the Major Leagues, and just like Jones, he’s got a large frame with elite power and freakish athletiscm.

While most people would talk about getting Spencer Jones to strike out a lot less, it doesn’t include the context of how much raw power Jones has and how his biggest issue is the lack of game power throughout his MiLB career. The Yankees’ first-rounder focused on making more contact in 2024, a novel idea given his profile, but not only did he fail to cut those numbers down, he seemed to forget that his overall slugging abilities would take a hit, and they were already underwhelming.

With a 29.2% Flyball% this past season, Spencer Jones didn’t hit the ball in the air enough to take advantage of his monstrous ability to do damage on contact.

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There are some ugly blue colors on here such as the 9th Percentile Whiff Rate (40.5%) and 10th Percentile Strikeout Rate (36.8%), there are some very encouraging data points as well. A 20.7% HR/FB% matches him up with some of the top sluggers in the sport, and if Jones is able to increase his flyball rate, we could see better power production, which would offset the massive strikeout numbers.

A player he should model his game after is Matt Wallner, who also has enormously high strikeout rates, but has been extremely productive at the Major League level. Injuries have limited him thus far, but with a 144 wRC+ and .500 SLG%, he’s built his game around hitting the ball in the air consistently to take advantage of his elite raw power. The Twins have a middle-of-the-order threat with Wallner, and his progress through the pros should be a model for Jones to follow.

Matt Wallner didn’t make his big-league debut until he was 24, coming up late in the 2022 season when rosters expanded. The Twins didn’t keep him in the big-leagues for good until July 2023, his age-25 season, as Minnesota finally felt comfortable with the progress he made lifting the ball consistently. The Yankees have seemed to shift Spencer Jones more towards generating loft in his swing and getting the ball out of the yard, a change that could do him wonders in 2025.

The bar of success for Spencer Jones would be around the 105-110 wRC+ range, as based on what we’ve seen from him defensively in centerfield, he could be a firmly above-average defender at a premium position. Couple that with good baserunning skills, and a 105-110 wRC+ version of Spencer Jones could be a 3-4 WAR player at the Major League level, which is a massive win for a first-round pick.

If he produces the way Wallner has in a full-time role, which means running an OPS of .866 with a 144 wRC+, then we’re talking about a potential MVP candidate. All of this is to say; the upside that Jones possesses is sky high, and his raw power tool is so dominant that he could slug enough to run bottom-of-the-barrel strikeout rates and still have success in the big leagues.

Prospects take time; Aaron Judge turned 25 in April during his dominant rookie season and Austin Wells made his MLB debut when he was 24 years old. COVID robbed most collegiate players of some key development time, and most guys make it to the Majors between their age 24 and 25 seasons. Spencer Jones is a whole year away from being in the age range of players who are expected to have big-league roles, and the Yankees might be rewarded for their patience.

Spencer Jones learned last season that generating game power is a huge part of what will make him successful, and if that carries into 2025, then we could be looking at the prospect that was considered untouchable just a year ago.