Yankees potential trade partner: Washington Nationals

06/30/2024 11:30 AM

While the likely position players available are outfielders, the Nats have some high-quality bullpen arms, and even a mid-rotation starter for the Yanks to consider.

An overlooked seller possibility this trade deadline could be the Washington Nationals. With a 39-43 record, they are not having the cellar-dweller year the preseason projections predicted. Less than two weeks ago, they were tied for the final playoff spot in the muddled NL Wild Card race. Despite dropping 7 of their last 11 games, if you want to view it optimistically at the halfway mark of their season, they are still in the race, but barely. They are sitting four games back with four teams between them for the last Wild Card spot. FanGraphs' projection system does not anticipate a second-half run, with a 1.7 percent of making the playoffs.

Selling off some of their veterans should be straightforward. Washington is overachieving, but it's important to keep their bigger picture in mind. They also have some promising young hitting prospects who could compensate for the lost production, such as consensus top-five MLB prospect outfielder James Wood, who will be called up to the majors tomorrow. Maybe it was just posturing, but MLB Network's Jon Morosi posted on X in mid-June that while teams have expressed interest, it was not clear if they would be sellers. They still have a month, but it would be wise to be patient with their process, especially given this team's lack of upside if they were to somehow make the postseason.

Let's start out with the most likely rotation trade candidate on the Nationals, Trevor Williams. A few weeks ago, I would have breezed through any starting rotation trade candidate. With each game in this brutal stretch however, the confidence in the Yankees' rotation continues to shrink. Even before Nestor Cortes' underwhelming work yesterday, the rotation ranked 28th among all MLB teams in June with 0.1 in fWAR and has a collective 5.48 ERA. Williams was off to a career year with a 2.22 ERA and 1.087 WHIP in his 11 starts. He has been on the injured list since early June due to a flexor strain, though. He has yet to begin throwing as of the most recent update this Friday.

So it remains to be seen if Williams can be healthy by the deadline in late July. However, if he is available, the 32-year-old will be a half-season rental as he is a free agent this upcoming offseason. His 89-mph average velocity fastball has yielded great results, ranking in the 95th percentile in Run Value. After posting a 5.55 ERA last season, he added a sweeper to his repertoire, and it's been a difference-maker. This season, he has thrown it at a 20-percent rate, and it has baffled hitters. Batters are hitting .166, slugging .167, and whiffing at a 44.6-percent rate against the pitch.

Here is one against Anthony Santander that just disappears in front of the plate.

It was just 11 games, but his peripheral numbers and low WHIP showed that he may have found a level-up with the use of his sweeper, and he could be an interesting rental.

A large part of the Nationals early success is the steady bullpen that ranks eighth in baseball in f(WAR) as a unit.

Closer Kyle Finnegan can fetch at least a modest return. The 32-year-old currently has a 2.16 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, with 22 saves out of 25 opportunities. His expected numbers indicated that hitters are making good contact off him with an xERA of 4.00 through the start of play on Saturday. His arsenal is relatively simple as he throws a four-seamer 66.7 percent of the time. Unlike Williams, he has a fastball with speeds that average 97.1 mph, with a strong horizontal break to it. His secondary pitch is a split-finger and it has a whiff rate of 34.6 percent.

Although not the closer, the Nats' setup man, Hunter Harvey, could be viewed as the Nationals' top bullpen arm. His ERA and WHIP won't blow you over at 3.40 and 1.18, respectively, but he has held an under-three ERA the previous two seasons with the team. He generates high rates in both strikeouts and groundballs, rating above the 80th percentile. He has also been able to come in and cover for his teammates. Out of the 14 times he has inherited a runner on base, he has only allowed one of those runs to score. Checking out how a pitcher performs with runners that are not their responsibility is a good indicator for how they might perform in trouble spots, though the sample is only so large. Going by the FanGraphs' leverage index splits, his best numbers are in high-leverage situations with hitters having a .223 wOBA against him.

There are two other relievers in the bullpen worth monitoring if the Nationals are looking to make half-measure deals. Dylan Floro's sinker and slider combination fits the Matt Blake reliever prototype. He is 33 years old and has a 2.23 ERA and 2.80 FIP in 38.2 innings. As a sinkerballer, he relies on generating groundballs rather than strikeouts, cue the "ughs." He also has one of the slowest velocities in the league, averaging 89.9 mph on his fastball. His ground-ball rate ranks in the 88th percentile, and his barrel rate has an elite 1.8 percent which is at the 97th percentile. They have yet another effective veteran out of the 'pen in Derek Law. A rarity for a reliever, he throws six different pitch types. He makes batters swing out of the zone at an elite 35 percent, which is in the 97th percentile of qualified pitchers. Correspondingly, he does well with groundball rate, in the 75th percentile. Something to flag is that Law has not been great at keeping inherited runners from scoring, allowing 17 out of 26 to score.

On the position player side, unhelpful for the Yankees, they are most likely to move outfielders Jesse Winkler and Lane Thomas. Outfielder Dylan Crews, the second pick of the MLB Draft in 2023 and MLB.com's No. 5 overall prospect, was called up to Triple-A this month, and may closely follow Wood if things continue to go smoothly with the Rochester Red Wings. So it should be relatively painless for Washington to lose Winkler or Thomas. For corner infielders, there are… not great options. They have Nick Senzel as their third baseman, who has a year and half of control after being non-tendered by the Reds. The former No. 2 overall pick's hitting has not lit the world on fire, but he does walk at a 12.1-percent rate to get him to a respectable OBP. With a slash line of .211/.311/.371. He does have a higher on-base and slugging and on-base than Oswaldo Cabrera (.234/.278/.345) but they probably will try to shoot higher when looking to bolster their infield with a trade.

The Nationals appear to have found something with their pitching development program. Pitching coach Jim Hickey, known as an "old-school" pitching coach added former closer Sean Doolittle as a pitching strategist, who is attuned to pitching analytics, this offseason. This Trade Deadline, their good pitching development program may pay off as they have the opportunity to accelerate their rebuilding process by trading Williams and members of the bullpen. There will be plenty of contenders, including the Yankees, that will be interested in what the Nationals have to offer.