Yankees potential trade partner: Tampa Bay Rays

07/03/2024 01:00 PM

If the Yankees and Rays are willing to swing an intra-division swap, options abound on both sides of the ball.

The Tampa Bay Rays entered the 2024 season expected to contend for a playoff berth coming off a 99-win season. They've failed to keep pace in the AL East as they hover around .500, well back of the Orioles and Yankees and even trailing the Red Sox, making them one of the season's most disappointing teams thus far.

Should they choose to deal at the deadline, they have an abundance of talent to entice other teams. Outfielder Randy Arozarena got off to a dreadful start but has turned things around, slashing .291/.424/.468 in June and looking much more like the player who earned an All Star berth last year. Under club control for two more seasons, he has the potential to be a franchise-altering acquisition. It's been a similar arc to the season for mainstay first baseman Yandy Díaz, who struggled early on coming off a season in which he won a batting title and finished sixth in AL MVP voting. He hit .325 with an .818 OPS in June and is under contract for $10 million next year with a $12 million team option for 2026.

Second baseman Brandon Lowe has missed time to injury once again this year, but has shown he still has pop when healthy, posting a .437 slugging percentage in 119 at-bats. His contract could be attractive to potential suitors, with team options just north of $10 million each of the next two seasons alongside buy-outs of $1 million and $500,000. Another veteran option is utilityman Amed Rosario, who signed a one-year, $1.5 million deal this offseason coming off a down year with the Guardians and Dodgers. He's bounced back nicely, posting a 105 OPS+ in 220 at-bats while splitting time between second, short, third, and the outfield (though his defense has not graded out particularly well anywhere).

Three veteran starters, each of whom is scheduled to hit free agency after the 2025 season, could find themselves on Tampa Bay's trading block as well. Zach Eflin signed the largest free agent deal in franchise history before last season and lived up to it, finishing sixth in Cy Young voting last year. While he's been more pedestrian this year (3.92 ERA, 100 ERA+ through 15 starts), he has the lowest walk rate in baseball and remains a reliable arm. With an $18 million salary next season, the penny-pinching Rays may be eager to move the 30-year-old off their payroll. Zack Littell has avoided free passes at an elite clip as well, permitting just 1.7 walks per nine, though he's allowed more hits than any other pitcher in baseball. Aaron Civale has been the most disappointing of the trio, scuffling to a 5.07 ERA, though he pitched to a 3.46 mark just last season between Cleveland and Tampa Bay.

(Update: Civale is officially the first to go, as he was traded to Milwaukee on Wednesday morning.)

Known as a factory for reliable bullpen arms, the Rays' bullpen houses an array of attractive options as well. Closer Pete Fairbanks is 13 for 15 in save tries this season and has a multi-year track record of success. So do fellow righties Jason Adam and Phil Maton, though the latter has struggled this season. 30-year-old southpaws Garrett Cleavinger and Colin Poche have been effective as well.

When it comes to any potential trade with the Rays, the Yankees would face two major obstacles. The first is whether Tampa Bay decides to sell in the first place. Despite performing below expectations, the Rays are just four games out of the third Wild Card spot. A strong July could surge them right into the heat of the playoff race and, with stars like Arozarena and Díaz turning their seasons around, they might feel that they are peaking at the right time and seek to add. Given the Rays' history of retooling by trading away veterans for younger talent while continuing to compete, though, it's likely they will be open to wheeling and dealing (at least on some level) regardless of where they are in the standings.

The bigger mountain to climb is the divisional one. Would the Rays be willing to move a popular player like Díaz or a reliable starter like Eflin to their AL East rivals? And, for that matter, would the Yankees be willing to relinquish a talented prospect and risk that player coming back to burn them for his six years of club control with the Rays?

If the two teams could align on a deal, there are plenty of fits for the Yankees. Needing infield help, Díaz, Lowe, or Rosario could all be options. The Yankees reportedly offered Rosario nearly three times as much as the Rays this offseason, but he spurned them in hopes of increased playing time. New York pivoted to Jon Berti, but with the speedy utilityman on the 60-day IL, they could return to their original plan and bring in Rosario. The Yankees, who've seen their bullpen thinned out by injuries and ineffectiveness, would also likely be eager to add any of the Rays' many experienced relievers, particularly one of the lefties.

As tentative as teams can be to make intra-division trades, the Yankees made two significant ones just this offseason, acquiring Alex Verdugo from the Red Sox and shipping Ben Rortvedt to the Rays in a three-team deal that brought back Berti. If the Rays are looking to cash in on what is expected to be a seller's market, the Yankees will have to listen.