Scouting Young Big Leaguers (part 4): Luis Gil

06/28/2024 02:30 PM

Despite his white hot start, is Gil positioned to have as impactful a role in the second half?

Welcome to the fourth edition of my series, where I evaluate young major leaguers who've recently graduated from prospect status. Myfirstthree pieces have covered the three young hitters on the major league roster, two of which have struggled to establish themselves in the big leagues but show glimmers of hope. The other, Anthony Volpe, has established himself as one of the more promising position players in the sport.

As we now shift to the one pitcher who qualifies for this series, I'll preface with how I enjoy scouting hitters more because it requires a deeper appreciation for the nuances. In other words, pitchers control their destinies far more than batters. A nasty slider is a nasty slider. A rising 100 mph fastball is a rising 100 mph fastball. That's not to say there aren't nuances to assessing pitchers or that scouting them isn't fun, but it's much easier to point to what a pitcher's doing in High-A and predict how it'll play in the majors than trying to guess how a batter will respond against better breaking pitches in Double- and Triple-A.

The one pitcher we'll highlight in this series happened to enjoy the best first half of any starter on the club: Luis Gil. Let's dig into the surprising Cy Young candidate and assess whether he can keep this up!

After enjoying a promising debut in 2021, Gil suffered a torn UCL just one start into his 2022 season. A combination of a longer-than-normal rehab assignment and the Yankees' underwhelming season resulted in Gil missing all of 2023. Perhaps it was a blessing in disguise, as the 26-year-old entered spring training showing shockingly little rust for a pitcher returning from Tommy John surgery.

His stuff looked as crisp as ever in Tampa, as further evidenced by his 2.87 ERA and 23 punchouts across 15.2 innings. His sensational spring catapulted him into the rotation spot vacated by the ailing Gerrit Cole. Even after his last two starts, Gil's 3.15 ERA and 28.0 K% have allowed him to accrue 1.6 fWAR through 16 starts. The topline numbers have been great. But how sticky is his performance?

We can't start Gil's evaluation without first mentioning his four-seamer. Contrary to conventional post-TJS wisdom, Gil's average fastball velocity (96.8) is up more than half a mile per hour from 2021 (96.1). Aside from its 89th percentile average velocity - which is more like 98-99th percentile when you exclude relievers - Gil's four-seamer has a very flat angle towards the plate, meaning the pitch remains parallel to the ground longer than most four-seamers. His combination of excellent velocity and great rising action makes it a truly lethal weapon up in the zone. Don't just take my word for it, the data backs it up:

What makes Gil so interesting from a scouting perspective is that each of his slider and change are above-average pitches, yet he opts to punch hitters out with his fastball more than all but two starters in the bigs:

While Gil has primarily gone to his heater with two strikes, there remains the terrifying reality that he can go to either of his other offerings to get the punchout. It forces batters to sit on his fastball and make adjustments to anything slower, which is far easier said than done. One way to put this hypothesis to the test is to assess the horizontal spray of each of Gil's offerings. As I would expect, hitters push his fastball because of its great velocity, but they pull the wazoo out of both his slider and change. In all, he boasts the 14th-highest pulled ball rate amongst qualified pitchers. So in addition to generating punchouts, Gil allows the defense to position itself behind him based on what pitch is coming. It's for all these reasons that Gil's fastball is comfortably a soft 70 on the 20/80 scale.

Most of Gil's ascension, however, should be attributed to his cambio which has skyrocketed in usage from 2021, where he threw it just 7% of the time. He's throwing it 29% of the time in 2024, though it's probably his worst offering in a vacuum. Why would he do that? Simple: the tunneling effect he creates off both his heater and slider from the change allows it to play up despite its middling analytical profile. Specifically, his change dives closer toward the plate than most others.

Stuff models have a difficult time quantifying tunneling effects, and it's one of the reasons why it's never been a big fan of changeup-heavy pitchers like Pablo López and, previously, Lucas Giolito. But when your fastball is as good as Gil's, your changeup merely needs to keep hitters off-balance as opposed to being a plus pitch. On its own, his changeup is a 50 but I'm bumping it to a 55 since in practice, it complements his heater well.

His slider is his least-used pitch, though I'd argue it's his second-best offering. As for why Gil uses his slider less, I'd refer you to what I referenced above. His gyro slider has nice downward action, though it doesn't tunnel well with his heater. So while we like to say, "Throw your best stuff," the opposite is true for Gil. It'd be one thing if his slider was a demonstrably better pitch than his change, but they're close enough that I'd just use the pitch more which sets up my double-plus heater best: in this case, the change. On its own, I'd grade his slider as a 55.

Gil's delivery isn't graceful, as it features long arm action and a head whack which causes him to not be looking towards the plate as he releases the ball. Gil's command falls well below the standard for starting pitchers. While there are moments where his command especially evaporates into thin air, Gil's 2024 success is due to what I'd term effective wildness. He misses the zone more than you'd like, but he's missing in areas that won't kill him either. He loses his fastballs above the zone, his slider down glove side, and his change down the arm side. Across his last couple of starts, however, he faltered when he began missing in hitters' turbo zones. For now, I'd grade his command at a 45, though it's tracked more like a 40 of late.

Part of me wonders if fatigue is causing his command to falter. Command erosion and velocity degradation are common tell-tales of pitcher fatigue. What's interesting is Gil's month-to-month average fastball velocity has increased this season, so I believe his misses have simply become more hittable of late. If fatigue is indeed the root cause of his slump, one wonders what the resolution will be. Not that anybody's asking for my opinion, but I'd consider trading for another starter and moving Gil to the bullpen as a high-leverage, multi-inning weapon. Considering how there aren't many shutdown relievers available on the trade market, slotting Gil into a high-leverage relief role could be the exact jolt the Yankees' 'pen desperately needs as they preserve his arm for years to come.

In any event, Gil's long-term outlook is an interesting case study on how one values fastball-heavy pitchers. This demographic of pitcher tends to age poorly, so I'd like to see either of his secondaries become more impactful over time, or I'd love if he tinkered with additional pitches in the offseason; perhaps a sweeping curve that's thrown like a curve but has more horizontal bite than the gyro slider Gil throws. My OFP 60 grade bakes in the poor aging curve for this type of pitcher, but there's little question that Gil's shape of success tracks closely with San Diego's Dylan Cease: a strikeout machine that features a double-plus fastball but shaky command which will prohibit him from being a true, consistent #1 starter.

I'm curious if each of you see eye-to-eye with me on Gil, or if you're higher/lower on the young right-hander. Let us know in the comments!