Goldschmidt might raise the Yankees' floor, but is that enough?

12/23/2024 10:00 AM

The Yankees signed the seven-time All-Star and former MVP on Saturday. How much can he help the team in 2025?

The Yankees continued their whirlwind offseason by signing Paul Goldschmidt to a one-year, $12.5 million deal on Saturday. Goldschmidt was but one candidate among several to be the Yankees' first baseman in 2025. On the verge of being three seasons removed from his 2022 NL MVP campaign, the 37-year old righty will be the fourth former MVP in the 2025 lineup, joining Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Cody Bellinger.

There's no getting around the fact that the bare minimum of adequacy will represent a boost from 2024. Yankee first basemen combined to hit .216/.284/.335 with a 76 wRC+ last year — worse than every team in the American League and "bested" by only the Reds. Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu, Ben Rice, and J.D. Davis all manned the bag in 2024 and that quartet put together a breathtakingly bad -1.1 fWAR. There has been a lot of consternation in the buildup and wake of this signing of Goldschmidt showing signs of decline last year, but he still put up 1.1 fWAR and a 100 wRC+.

It's honestly a testament to Goldschmidt that he finished with the offensive numbers he did, because through June, he was awful. He had a .225, .294 OBP, and .361 slugging percentage in perhaps the final chapter of what might be a dark horse Hall of Fame career. Yet from July onward, he slashed .269/.310/.474, good for a .784 OPS. He finished the second half with a 120 wRC+ in 250 plate appearances.

Goldschmidt's underlying statistics indicate that some factors might have worked against him in 2024. His .308 BABIP was nearly 40 points below his career-average, for instance, though that can at least be partially attributed to declining speed with age. His wOBA, however, was significantly lower than his xwOBA as well. He still punished the ball with a 49.6-percent hard-hit rate, which ranked in MLB's 92nd percentile, and his average exit velocity of 91.2 mph was also among the top fifth of all qualified hitters.

There's also the factor of Goldschmidt's potential for opposite-field pop. Throughout his career, he's done damage pulling the ball and going to center, but he has also almost always gone the other way more than the rest of the league, too. Even in 2024, per FanGraphs, MLB as a whole had a 24.2-percent Oppo%, while Goldschmidt beat that at 25.9 percent. A year prior, he was at 31.7 percent and MLB was at 25.6 percent. As seen in the reel below, Goldschmidt has the kind of pop to send shots to deep right field, and that should play well with the Short Porch at Yankee Stadium (and Steinbrenner Field for Rays road games). Some of the shots below went out regardless, and others that went for doubles, triples, or fly outs would at least contend for homers in the Bronx.

Where Goldschmidt really shined was against lefties, who often seemed to flummox the 2024 Yankees. He hit .295/.366/.473 with a .839 OPS against southpaws last year. That split has made a possible platoon with Rice, who hit righties last year, an attractive option, especially considering Goldschmidt is now 37 and will presumptively need occasional rest days. Given his contract, he'll surely get the lion's share of starts to begin 2025, but it's something to consider as the season moves along. Another thing to watch out for will be Goldschmidt's approach. He hit .364/.375/.709 on first pitches last year. Depending on his spot in the lineup, he may gain more independence to attack on first pitches if he is surrounded by protection in the batting order.

Goldschmidt wouldn't only help the Yankees hit lefties—he is a four-time Gold Glove winner that will certainly help the infield defense. He should also bring a veteran presence that is more than just vibes. He helped Aaron Judge after their MVP seasons in regards to his two-strike approach by taking a no-stride approach and putting weight on the lead foot.

Still, there's a limit to the optimism you can place on Goldschmidt's 2025 outlook given his age and 2024 production. Steamer projects him to have a 114 wRC+, which seems almost more than what the Yankees can hope for. We saw just how ruthless Father Time can be—DJ LeMahieu also had a nice end to the 2023 season that sprung optimism as well. Goldschmidt's strikeout rates are trending in the wrong direction, and while Sam already cited Mike Petriello's caution sign about Goldy's performance against fastballs, it bears repeating.

The real risk with the Goldschmidt signing isn't the contract itself, but rather wasting another year of Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole with a perfectly fine option at first base rather than the best option. I anticipate Goldschmidt will produce more than Rizzo, LeMahieu, and Rice alone at first this year ... and yet he could leave fans wanting more.

The real question is whether Goldschmidt (and his hypothetical platoonmate Rice) will produce more than other first basemen like Christian Walker, Josh Naylor, Nathaniel Lowe, or Yandy Díaz. To be fair regarding the latter trio, it takes two teams to make a trade, and we have no idea how each of Cleveland, Texas, and Tampa Bay view the Yankees' prospects. But in a must-win season, betting on an aging slugger like the regressing Goldschmidt should be approached with trepidation — especially with other options in free agency and on the trade market.

Goldschmidt is who the Yankees landed on, however, so there's not much to be done at this point beyond mild ruminations on those alternate timelines. If you want to draw from positives, then they exist; so do the red flags. We will simply have to see how the decision plays out, though any move the Yankees make to cover the other infield spot — be it second or third — could bolster confidence in their 2025 aspirations.