2025 Preview: Braves

03/24/2025 07:00 AM

If the Braves are going to make it back to the top of the competitive NL East in 2025, they need Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. back healthy.

No team in Major League Baseball is more excited for the start of the 2025 season than the Atlanta Braves. Despite making the playoffs in 2024, last season saw the Braves struggle through injuries and players playing below expectations. In the first two months of the season alone, Atlanta lost a likely Cy Young contender and the reigning MVP.

In April, Spencer Strider, the unquestioned ace of the Atlanta pitching staff and one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, left a start after feeling discomfort in his elbow which led to Tommy John surgery. A month later, 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. tore the ACL in his left knee and was lost for the year. Both Strider and Acuña are rehabbing and should return in the first half of 2025, though neither has a solid return date.

But make no mistake: if the Braves want to go deep into the postseason in 2025, they need Strider and Acuña back healthy. And they need the supporting cast to improve on their 2024 numbers.

2024 Record: 89-73 (2nd NL East, tied)

2025 FanGraphs Projections: 89-73 (1st in NL East)

All-star second baseman Ozzie Albies posted a career-low 32 percent hard hit rate while battling multiple injuries. Third baseman Austin Riley had a personal-worst .783 OPS and catcher Sean Murphy, who will start this season on the IL, had a career-high 32 percent swing and miss rate. Slugging first baseman Matt Olson played in all 162 games but saw his power numbers drop from 54 home runs in 2023 to 29 home runs in 2024. The lone beacon of hope in the lineup was designated hitter Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna finished in the top five in all three Triple Crown categories, including a career best 154 OPS+.

The infield lineup remains largely unchanged for 2025, meaning the Braves are banking on Albies, Riley, and Olson staying healthy and returning to pre-2024 numbers. With Murphy starting the year on the IL, however, top Atlanta prospect Drake Baldwin will get the opportunity to take most of the at-bats behind the dish. Baldwin has played well this spring in 16 games.

Where the Braves made major changes was the outfield. Atlanta brought in Jarred Kelenic for depth prior to the start of 2024, and they turned to him when Acuña went down. The one-time prospect showed flashes of greatness in 2024, but Atlanta seems ready to move on from Kelenic's .663 career OPS. Jurickson Profar and Alex Verdugo will shore up the corner outfield spots — perhaps the former more capably than the latter — until Acuña is healthy, and both provide better career power numbers than Kelenic. (Verdugo will start the year at Triple-A to tune up since he signed late.)

In center field, Michael Harris II is a star waiting for his moment to shine. If not for Colorado's Brenton Doyle, the 2023 NL Rookie of the Year would also already own a Gold Glove. It's only a matter of time before he wins one, or more. Harris has the potential to go 20/20 this season.

On the mound, a rejuvenated Chris Sale won the NL Cy Young in his first season in Atlanta going 18-4 with an NL-best 2.38 ERA and 225 strikeouts. Sale will again anchor the pitching staff in 2025, at least until Strider can return from injury. One positive that came from Strider's absence was the emergence of Spencer Schwellenbach. The 24-year-old righty made his debut in May and started 21 games for the Braves. He went 7-7 with a 3.35 ERA and 127 strikeouts in 123.2 innings. Reynaldo López and AJ Smith-Shawver round out a solid Atlanta rotation. López became a surprise All-Star and posted a 1.99 ERA in 135 innings last season while featuring an impressive swing and miss slider. Smith-Shawver has just six career starts to his name, but has prospect pedigree and had his path to the rotation cleared following yesterday's Ian Anderson trade.

Raisel Iglesias returns in the closer role. He saved 34 games last year for the Braves and owns a career 87 percent success rate. Aaron Bummer and Pierce Johnson are back to fill high-leverage roles in the bullpen, and soon, they might be joined by an old friend to Atlanta: Craig Kimbrel. The Braves' 2010 NL Rookie of the Year winner and former relief ace is back in town for perhaps one last ride after flaming out as the Orioles' closer in 2024.

The National League East is one of the toughest divisions in baseball. The arrival of Juan Soto to the Mets and the retooling of the Phillies in Philadelphia could spell trouble for the Braves, who saw their streak of six consecutive division crowns end last October. If Albies, Riley, Olson, and Murphy can't turn their offensive slides around, the Braves could be looking up from a distant third place finish.

However, they did win 89 games in 2024 in a season where every single one of their projected starters, except for Ozuna, missed time due to injuries or poor performance. If they can get Strider and Acuña back healthy and the supporting cast can get back to playing like themselves, the Braves have the talent to make a deep run in the postseason.