2025 Preview: Diamondbacks

03/25/2025 08:30 AM

Now two years removed from their NL Pennant, can the DBacks make a similar run in 2025?

Entering the 2025 season, it's hard to tell what's more surprising—the fact that it's only been two years since the Arizona Diamondbacks were in the World Series or that they were tied for the third-best offense in baseball last year. And that's with Corbin Carroll posting a .635 OPS in the first half. The D-Backs added another Corbin—Burnes, that is—this off-season to join Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly in the rotation. While stuck in the NL West with the Dodgers, there will be some fun baseball played in the desert this year.

2024 record: (89-73, 3rd NL West)

FanGraphs 2025 projection: (86-76, 2nd NL West)

Burnes signed a six-year, $210 million contract with the Diamondbacks this off-season. He's coming off a great season with the O's, pitching 194.1 innings of 2.92 ERA ball. There are some concerning signs, however. As a pitcher who relies on his ability to generate swings and misses, his strikeout rate dropping steadily year over year from 35.6 percent in his 2021 NL Cy young season to 23.1 percent does not portend well for this contract. Still, his cutter is one of the nastiest pitches in the game. He's pitched well this spring, compiling a 1.35 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 13.1 innings of work.

The DBacks also have another ace—Zac Gallen, who was recently named the club's Opening Day starter. Now one of the longest-tenured Diamondbacks, Gallen is coming off of a solid, if inconsistent, 2024. Merrill Kelly, who has one of the best changeups in the game, can also be counted on for Arizona. The real question marks are Eduardo Rodríguez and Jordan Montgomery. Both are coming off of underwhelming debut seasons with the DBacks and will be hoping to improve on their truncated 2024 outings.

On the offensive side, Arizona added Josh Naylor from Cleveland in exchange for pitching prospect Slade Cecconi and a draft pick. Naylor replaces Christian Walker, who was one of the top first base free agents this offseason before he signed with the Astros. Naylor, fresh off of a 31-homer season, brings some pop to an offense that was, again, somewhat surprising. As mentioned above, Corbin Carroll slumped in the first half of the season, slashing just .213/.301/.334 after his breakout NL ROY campaign in 2023. In the second half, however, he turned it around, hitting .259/.351/.568 with a .919 OPS and 17 homers.

Needless to say, Arizona's top offense wasn't driven by Carroll. Nor was it driven by Gabriel Moreno, their excellent young catcher acquired from Toronto in the Daulton Varsho deal. Moreno's performance wasn't the issue. He put up a 105 OPS+ and 2.6 WAR in 97 games. He missed time due to an abductor sprain.

Instead, their offense was led by Ketel Marte, who had quite the year at the plate with a .292/.372/.560 triple slash and 36 homers en route to a third-place finish in the NL MVP vote. Marte absolutely tore the cover off of the ball last year with an average exit velocity of 94 mph. Marte attributes the stability his five-year, $76 million deal afforded him to playing relaxed. He was absolutely red hot during the 2023 run the DBacks made, so should Arizona make the playoffs, he will absolutely be a player to look for. As he finished third in the MVP race, it's hard to call Marte underrated, and yet it doesn't seem like the conversation surrounding him is proportionate to the level he played at last year.

The Diamondbacks also relied on some unsung heroes like Geraldo Perdomo, who put up 3.5 WAR at short while hitting for a 101 OPS+; Eugenio Suárez, who racked up 30 homers and 101 RBI and is set to return to the desert; Joe Pederson, who crushed righties to the tune of a .281/.391/531 slash line with a .923 OPS; and Randal Grichuk, who put together a hot 106 games for Arizona. A defining question for Arizona will be whether those performances were a flash in the pan, or if they can be replicated in 2025.

Overall, the Diamondbacks made a big splash adding Corbin Burnes to their rotation, but did lose a major piece to their offense in Christian Walker (and a valuable bat in Pederson, who signed with Texas). Still, this is a fun team that definitely has the potential to go on the proverbial hot streak come October.