UFC Vegas 100: Magny Vs. Prates Prediction

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Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 100 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., Nov. 9, 2024) on ESPN+ from inside APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC Vegas 100 features a 170-pound main event between Top 15 welterweight Neil Magny and Brazilian "Nightmare" Carlos Prates, a five-round headliner with title implications for early 2025 and beyond.

Before we dive into the main event, checkout Andrew Richardson's "X-Factor" breakdown for the rest of the UFC Vegas 100 main card by clicking here. Get all the latest "Magny vs. Prates" odds and betting props courtesy of FanDuel right here. For UFC Vegas 100 live results and play-by-play click here.

170 lbs.: Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates

Neil "Haitian Sensation" Magny
Record: 29-12 | Age: 37 | Betting line: +470
Wins: 8 KO/TKO, 4 SUB, 17 DEC | Losses: 3 KO/TKO, 6 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 6'3" | Reach: 80" | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.44 | Striking accuracy: 46%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.48 | Striking Defense: 51%
Takedown Average: 2.15 (40% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 54%
Current Ranking: No. 15 | Last fight: Technical knockout loss to Michael Morales

Carlos "The Nightmare" Prates
Record: 20-6 | Age: 31 | Betting line: -650
Wins: 15 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 2 DEC | Losses: 2 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 6'1" | Reach: 78" | Stance: Switch
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.71 | Striking accuracy: 57%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 5.02 | Striking Defense: 48%
Takedown Average: 0.00 (0% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 80%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Knockout victory over Jingliang Li

There was a time in the not-too-distant past when welterweight veteran Neil Magny was sitting just outside the Top 5 at 170 pounds and was routinely on the cusp of making a run at the division title. Unfortunately for the 37 year-old "Haitian Sensation," those days appear to be far behind him and Magny is now barely clinging to the No. 15 spot after going 5-5 across his last 10, getting defeated by new school phenoms Ian Garry and Shavkat Rakhmonov, among others. Now in his eleventh year of UFC competition, Magny continues to lean on his wrestling for the bulk of his offensive attacks, except for those instances when he's facing a superior wrestler.

Magny has 17 decision victories in his professional career, 14 under the UFC banner, which is the most ever — across any weight class — in the history of the promotion. He also holds welterweight records for total fights (33), most wins (22), significant strikes landed (1418), and total strikes landed (2538). That would make it seem like Magny is some kind of world beater but in reality, it has more to do with his 6:51:58 hours of cage time, also a division record. The former Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 16 contestant has been around forever and has fought a who's-who of 170-pound stars, making him one of the unsung heroes of the welterweight division.

He's good at everything, not great at anything.

"At this point, it's all about letting it be known that you still stand to be a force in the division, so to speak," Magny told reporters during the UFC Vegas 100 media day. "I don't do that by fighting guys I know I can beat. I get it by going out there and challenging myself against whomever the UFC throws at me. This is yet again another example of that."

"I can easily be like, 'Hey, do you guys have any 30-year-olds or 40-year-olds I can fight? I don't want to fight another up-and-coming killer.' But I know that's not what's going to make me happy at the end of the day," Magny continued. "I want to challenge myself. Right now, being at the place I'm at physically, mentally, emotionally, I know I can still compete with the best guys in the world. I would honestly feel bad for myself if I were to sandbag and sell myself short by taking an opponent I know I'd beat easily."

Carlos Prates has been a welcome addition to the stagnant 170-pound roster, which is slogged up with aging (and in many ways fading) stars like Colby Covington, Gilbert Burns, and Stephen Thompson, just to name a few. Prates arrived on Dana White's "Contender Series" back in summer 2023, smashing Mitch Ramirez in the second stanza to capture a UFC contract. The investment paid off, as "The Nightmare" is now 3-0 inside the Octagon with three straight knockouts. That includes his UFC 305 destruction of well-traveled veteran Li Jingliang last August, giving the 31 year-old Brazilian 18 finishes in 20 wins — 15 of them coming by way of knockout. Prates also has a grand total of zero takedowns during his time in UFC because he's here to bang; and let's face it, if it ain't broke ... why fix it?

"I asked for the fight because I finish the fights really fast," Prates told reporters during the UFC Vegas 100 media day. "I think it's the main reason, you know? I always finish the fight, and then I fight in two months or something like that. I ask to fight somebody when they do an interview in the Octagon."

"I have been training so hard, and to be honest, I'm going to fight Neil Magny on Saturday, and then I'm looking for a fight in Australia in February," Prates continued. "Then, I'll take a little break to take care of my body, my health. It's good also that I'm keeping training and fighting. It's good also. But now it's time to, like I say, to think with my brain, not with my heart."

The bookies are correct to have Prates as the odds-on betting favorite, because the Brazilian is on his way up and Magny is on his way down. That said, -650 is absurd when you consider the experience of the "Haitian Sensation," a battle-tested veteran who's seen and done it all. I would expect Prates to come out guns blazing and throw everything but the kitchen sink at his taller, rangier foe. I also expect Magny to keep a cool head, weather the storm, and let Prates — who's never been five rounds — empty his tank. That's when Magny takes over with his suffocating wrestling and upsets the 170-pound apple cart.

Prediction: Magny def. Prates by submission

Don't forget to check out the rest of the UFC Vegas 100 main card predictions RIGHT HERE.

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 100 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ "Prelims" matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 8 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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