Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates prediction, pick: Will heavy favorite keep rising in Vegas?

Yesterday at 12:10 PM

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC Fight Night 247 main event between Neil Magny and Carlos Prates.

Neil Magny UFC Fight Night 247 preview

Staple info:

• Record: 29-12 MMA, 22-11 UFC
• Height: 6’3″ Age: 37 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 80″
• Last fight: TKO loss to Michael Morales (Aug. 24, 2024)
• Camp: Elevation Fight Team (Denver)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ All-Army combatives champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ 8 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
^ High-volume striker
+ Long and accurate jab
+ Improved wrestling ability
^ Works well from bodylock
+ Solid transitional grappler
^ Scrambles and floats well
+/- 7-4 against UFC-level southpaws

Carlos Prates UFC Fight Night 247 preview

Staple info:

• Record: 20-6 MMA, 3-0 UFC
• Height: 6’1″ Age: 31 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 78″
• Last fight: Knockout win over Li Jingliang (Aug. 17, 2024)
• Camp: Fighting Nerds (Brazil)
• Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple muay Thai and kickboxing titles
+ 15 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Good proprioception and eyes in exchanges
+ Dangerous left crosses and kicks
+ Solid takedown defense against the fence
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Hard knees and good frames
+ Good transitional grappler

Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates point of interest: Striking with a southpaw

The main event in Las Vegas features a showdown between two long welterweights who operate out of opposite stances.

An orthodox fighter with a winning record in open-stance affairs, Neil Magny’s game doesn’t really diverge off of his preferred path when having to strike with southpaws.

Consistently circling and moving, Magny utilizes all 80 inches of his reach while working behind his long and accurate jab (something many orthodox fighters mistakenly stop doing opposite southpaws).

Often doubling up with his lead, Magny keeps his opponent's eyes occupied while looking to set up his next shot. Magny is also a more aggressive kicker in open-stance matchups and will sneakily counter-balance said kicks with straight shots down the centerline.

Nevertheless, I’m not sure how much Magny will want to be exchanging kicks with a fighter like Carlos Prates.

A savvy southpaw who spent multiple years fighting in Thailand, Prates has an undeniable swagger to his striking style.

Although I wish he were a little more active with his lead hand, Prates does well at quietly keeping the temperature high with lead-handed prods coming forward and check hook looks off the counter. And once Prates finds his range, the Brazilian wields the threat of crushing kicks and crosses in conjunction, providing multiple examples of what many of us analysts refer to as ‘the southpaw double-attack.’

Whether Prates is counter-balancing knees with straight shots or is utilizing crosses to disguise kicks off the same side, the lung-dart-loving 31-year-old can serve as a death dealer with multiple weapons at his disposal.

Prates is also an avid leg kicker who doesn’t discriminate when it comes to picking his targets in open-stance affairs (as he isn't beyond attacking the rear leg a la Sittichai Sangkhachot).

Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates breakdown: Potential grappling threats

Between the smaller octagon of the Apex and Magny’s propensity to push clinching agendas, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a decent amount of grappling in this fight.

Diligently working his wrestling and jiu-jitsu with the Elevation Fight Team, Magny has quietly become a menace to tangle with in close quarters.

From Magny’s ability to stay with scrambles to his sticky sensibilities from the bodylock position, the former "TUF" contestant has come a long way when it comes to sharpening his technique and weaponizing his cardio.

Although Magny is a fairly flexible takedown artist, he primarily does his best work when chaining attacks or hitting shuck-bys from the clinch. That said, Magny could get more than he bargains for if he’s not careful about how he ties up with a muay Thai stylist like Prates.

Not only can Prates operate well with the collar ties that you would associate with a striker of his background, but the Brazilian also displays solid wrestling fundamentals as far as defense goes.

Whether Prates hoisting his opponent’s arms off of his hips with high and tight whizzers or is working off of solid forearm frames, the Fighting Nerds product demonstrates solid fight I.Q. when forced to defend takedowns along the fence. And in the open, Prates appears to have some deceptively strong hips that assist his already stellar reaction times when it comes to shutting down shots at his legs.

When taken down, Prates is good about keeping his composure while seeking out solutions that prioritize stand-ups and sweeps over submissions. Prates showed a glimpse of his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt savvy with a sweet butterfly sweep he hit against Charles Radtke, but Magny should prove a more stern test if he’s able to get some positive positions in this fight.

Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates odds

The oddsmakers and the public are heavily favoring the Brazilian newcomer, listing Prates -900 and Magny +520 via FanDuel.

Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates prediction, pick

Although these odds are getting a bit out of hand for my liking, I can’t say that I’m surprised to see such a wide spread in this spot.

Aside from Prates being ‘the new hotness in town,’ there’s nothing MMA gamblers love more than fading aging fighters.

Magny, to his credit, has managed to hang around as the most winningest welterweight in UFC history. The flip side to that coin, however, is that Magny also has the most in-octagon miles among his contemporaries – – something that I believe has started to show itself more and more in recent years.

Moreover, the book on how to beat Magny has been firmly written at this point of his career.

Whether we’re talking about tactics like leg kicks or the undeniable trends that cage positioning plays in Magny’s strikes-absorbed stats, there are plenty of trends that favor Prates going into this fight.

Add in the fact that specialists make up a disproportionate amount of Magny’s losses, and I can’t help but like Prates’ chances despite his lack of high-level sample sizes (something I typically am more critical than most about).

Even though I can admit my fandom of Prates’ style and swagger, his team, Fighting Nerds, prides themselves on their ability to game plan and this seems like a fairly straightforward assignment.

I’ll officially pick Prates to knock Magny out along the fence by the end of Round 2.

Prediction: Prates inside the distance

Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates start time, where to watch

As the main event, Magny and Prates are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 9:45 p.m. ET. The fight streams live on ESPN+.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie's event hub for UFC Fight Night 247.