Why Vikings must be considered favorite to win NFC North over Lions, Packers

12/12/2024 06:08 PM

The Minnesota Vikings have been labeled as one of the top surprises throughout the 2024 NFL season. They faced a daunting schedule at the start of the year and it appeared that this was a team in transition that had a very good chance at losing four of its first five games.

But instead of falling victim to the San Francisco 49ers, Houston Texans, Green Bay Packers and New York Jets, they rolled to victory in all of those games. They had started the season with a relatively easy win over the New York Giants, and their 5-0 start made them the talk of the football world.

While they would drop back-to-back games to the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams, they would respond with a six-game winning streak that has left them with an 11-2 record. They are right on the heels of the Lions (12-1) and have a 2-game lead on the Packers (9-4).

Now that the season has reached the home stretch, it’s no longer about surprising and overachieving. It’s about fulfilling the goals that head coach Kevin O’Connell has set for this team and finding a way to overtake the Lions and hold off the Packers.

It is a tall task, but one that Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson and Aaron Jones have a legitimate chance to accomplish. While the Lions are powerful and passionate, they have been hit hard with injuries on the defensive side of the ball. They have been able to overcome those issues to this point, but the closing schedule is not an easy one and the Vikings may just be able to overcome their one-game advantage in the NFC North standings.

Sam Darnold is on a roll and has exceeded expectations

Darnold has been a key leader for the Vikings all season, but he has been at an especially high level in the last four weeks.

In his four most recent games against the Titans, Bears, Cardinals and Falcons, Darnold had an 11-0 TD-interception ratio while passing for 1,158 yards and averaging 289.5 yards per game.

As a result of this recent hot streak, Darnold has been mentioned prominently for Most Valuable Player consideration.

He may have a ways to go to get past Jared Goff of the Lions, Saquon Barkley of the Eagles and Lamar Jackson of the Ravens, but there is no denying that Darnold has outstripped anything he had accomplished in his previous 6 years in the NFL. He ranks 3rd in passer rating at 108.1, he has completed 68.4 percent of his passes and has accumulated  3,299 air yards with a 28-10 TD-interception ratio.

Thought of as a liability before the start of the season, he is one of the primary reasons the Vikings have risen so prominently, while the Lions are still strong betting favorites to win the division at odds of -600, the Vikings (+900) appear to have a favorable schedule.

The Vikings have home games remaining with the Bears and Packers and go on the road to face the Seahawks before closing the season at Detroit. The Lions host the explosive Bills, go on the road to face the Bears and 49ers before the finale against Minnesota.

If the Lions lose one of the first three while the Vikings close the season with four straight wins, they will bypass the Lions and take the NFC North crown. Multiple sportsbooks will give football bettors the opportunity to get behind the Vikings and enjoy a sizable payoff.

Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison lead vibrant receiving crew

It’s clear that Darnold has taken advantage of a superior crew of receivers to get the Vikings to their prominent position to this point in the season. The quarterback knows that Jefferson may very well be the best receiver in the NFL and the explosive Addison gives the Vikings an incredible 1-2 punch of big-play performers.

Additionally, tight end T.J. Hockenson has returned to prominence after a late season knee injury knocked him out at the end of the 2023 season and kept him from playing until Week 9 this season. Darnold knows that Hockenson knows how to get open on crucial third-down plays that keep drives alive.

Jefferson has it all including speed, route running, athleticism and work ethic. However, it is his spectacular hands that allow him to make the toughest catches when the game is on the line that separate him from the competition.

Jefferson has caught 75 of 107 targets for 1,170 yards and 7 touchdowns with 23 receptions of 20 yards or more. Addison is not far behind with 44-708-7 and 12 receptions of 20-plus yards.

If running back Aaron Jones can hold on to the football — 4 fumbles in his last 3 games — the Vikings will have the balanced offense to finish their season in remarkable fashion.

Defense has done its part and must continue to deliver

Defensive coordinator Brian Flores gained recognition last season when he was able to turn one of the NFL’s most generous defenses into a hard-hitting and effective unit.

That growth has continued in the 2024 season. Newcomers Blake Cashman, Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel all have played key roles by making a series of big plays. Van Ginkel has already had two interceptions that he has returned for touchdowns and he has a flair for the dramatic with 9.0 sacks.

Greenard leads the team with 10.0 sacks and he also has 14 tackles for loss and 3 forced fumbles. Cashman has been remarkable with 73 tackles, 3.0 sacks, 6 tackles for loss and 7 passes defensed.

The secondary features the play of Cam Bynum, Harrison Smith and Josh Metellus. All three are consistent tacklers and have combined for 7 interceptions.

The Vikings need the Lions to lose one game before the two teams meet in the season finale. If that happens, the Vikings could be in a position to topple hard-hitting Detroit and head into the NFC playoffs with the NFC North title.

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