Twins vs. Red Sox prediction, odds, pick – 9/22/2024

Yesterday at 02:00 AM

The Minnesota Twins will conclude their three-game series with the Boston Red Sox on Sunday at Fenway Park. There are playoff spots on the line as we share our MLB odds series and make a Twins-Red Sox prediction and pick.

Twins-Red Sox Projected Starters 

Zebby Matthews vs. Nick Pivetta 

Zebby Matthews (1-3) with a 6.30 ERA

Last Start: Matthews went 4 2/3 innings in his last outing, allowing one earned run and five hits while striking out five and walking one in a no-decision against the Cleveland Guardians.

2024 Road Splits: Matthews is 0-2 with a 4.30 ERA over six starts on the road.

Nick Pivetta (5-11) with a 4.37 ERA

Last Start: Pivetta went 4 2/3 innings in his last outing, giving up four earned runs on five hits while striking out six in a loss to the Tampa Bay Rays.

2024 Home Splits: Pivetta is 2-5 with a 4.30 ERA over 11 starts at Fenway Park.

Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Twins-Red Sox Odds

Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+134)

Moneyline: -126

Boston Red Sox: +1.5 (-162)

Moneyline: +108

Over: 8.5 (-105)

Under: 8.5 (-115)

How to Watch Twins vs. Red Sox

Time: 1:35 PM ET/10:35 AM PT

TV: BSN

Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)

Why The Twins Will Cover The Spread/Win

Carlos Correa recently returned, giving the Twins a boost. Now, they hope he can help give them a boost in a wildcard race that is heating up. The Twins led the Detroit Tigers by just one game coming into the day and need to take care of business over their final seven games to fend them off. To do that, they need the offense to come through.

The Twins are 12th in hitting coming into the day. Overall, they have been inconsistent throughout the year. Willi Castro is their leader in hits and will look to get things going for the Twins. Likewise, Carlos Santana looks to batter the baseball into the seats for another home run. Correa’s return can make things easier for the both of them as they attempt to drive some runs home. They averaged four runs over the first five games of the week, showing they need good pitching to finish the job.

Matthews has not gotten past the fifth inning in any of his starts. Unfortunately, his career has not gotten off to the start he has desired. When Matthews exits, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is just 18th in team ERA. Jhoan Duran is the closer, 6-9, with a 3.83 ERA and 23 saves.

The Twins will cover the spread if Castro, Santana, and Correa can drive some runners home and build a lead early. Then, they need Matthews to avoid trouble.

Why The Red Sox Will Cover The Spread/Win

The Red Sox are about to be eliminated from the playoff race. Unfortunately, time just ran out, and they went cold at the worst possible time, faltering against the New York Yankees (1-3) and Tampa Bay Rays (1-2). Things just did not go their way, and as a result, they will miss the postseason. But this offense can still cause trouble for the Twins and play spoiler.

Jarren Duran has been solid all season and leads the Sox in hits. While the Red Sox will not make the playoffs, they like what they have in Duran, and he will be an integral part of this offense for years to come. Tyler O’Neil has come out of nowhere to lead the Red Sox in home runs. Therefore, expect him to be a threat to clobber the baseball into Pesky Pole. Rafael Devers is still as good as ever and will want to finish the season on a high note. Thus, he will be a threat in every at-bat.

Pivetta has struggled in his career against the Twins. Unfortunately, he is just 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA over three starts against the Twins throughout his career. When Pivetta leaves the game, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is just 26th in team ERA. Kenley Jansen has been one of the lone bright spots, going 4-2 with a 3.35 ERA and 27 saves.

The Red Sox will cover the spread if Duran can get things going, and O’Neil and Devers can drive him in to give the Sox an early advantage. Additionally, they need Pivetta to avoid making mistakes down the heart of the plate.

Final Twins-Red Sox Prediction & Pick

The Twins are 71-83 against the run line, while the Red Sox share the same record. Also, the Twins are 39-40 against the run line on the road, while the Red Sox are 27-49 against the run line at Fenway. Despite being in contention all season, the Red Sox have not played well at Fenway Park. In fact, they were 35-41 on the money line at home. We don’t see much changing. Even with a struggling pitcher, the Twins will find a way to cover the odds.

Final Twins-Red Sox Prediction & Pick: Minnesota Twins: -1.5

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