Oklahoma vs. Auburn prediction, odds, pick for College Football Week 5

09/26/2024 03:10 PM

Oklahoma and Auburn will look to get back on track when they square off at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Week 5. It is time to continue our college football odds series with an Oklahoma-Auburn prediction and pick.

The Sooners struggled on offense in a 25-15 loss to Tennessee, with Brent Venables’ team posting just 222 yards of total offense and 36 rushing yards in the game. That has prompted a quarterback change, as true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. will replace Jackson Arnold under center in this matchup.

Meanwhile, the Tigers had their own offensive issues with five turnovers in a 24-14 defeat at the hands of Arkansas. Auburn may also consider a quarterback swap, with early season starter Payton Thorne potentially stepping back in for freshman Hank Brown, who threw three interceptions in Week 4.

Here are the College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Oklahoma-Auburn Odds

Oklahoma: -2.5 (-106)

Moneyline: -126

Auburn: +2.5 (-114)

Moneyline: +105

Over: 45.5 (-110)

Under: 45.5 (-110)

How to Watch Oklahoma vs. Auburn

Time: 3:30 p.m. ET/12:30 a.m. PT

TV: ABC

Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)

Why Oklahoma Could Cover The Spread/Win

It’s all about the defense.

There is so little trust in the Auburn offense right now that it would have a difficult matchup against average defenses, but this is no average defense. Oklahoma, for the most part, kept Tennessee’s prolific offensive in check in Week 4, as the 66-yard receiving touchdown from Donte Thornton Jr. and a 42-yard catch from Bru McCoy were the only plays the Vols had that went for more than 17 yards.

With the unknowns at quarterback, the Tigers would likely love to be able to lean on the running game behind Jarquez Hunter (48 CARs, 340 YDs, 2 TDs). The issue is that the Sooners are allowing just 2.4 yards per rush, which ranks seventh nationally. They’re also seventh in sacks per game (3.5), 21st in yards per play allowed (4.3), 26th in rushing yards allowed (96.0), 26th in scoring defense (14.8 PPG), and 28th in yards allowed per game (284.8).

On paper, there’s just so much to like about this matchup for the Oklahoma defense.

And let’s also not discount the idea that the offense can build momentum after Hawkins showcased his potential against Tennessee. Sure, the Vols had the game in hand late, but he still made some impressive plays in completing 11-of-18 throws for 132 yards and a touchdown.

If the defense can give him a short field to work with, that’s a recipe for success for the Sooners to win this game.

Why Auburn Could Cover The Spread/Win

Because Auburn can’t possibly keep turning the ball over at such a ridiculous rate, can it?

The Tigers don’t lack talent on offense, they just can’t seem to put themselves in advantageous positions because of all the mistakes. Auburn is tied with East Carolina for the most turnovers lost (14) thus far this season, which is just an absurd number for a Freeze-run offense.

When the Tigers can run their offense through Hunter and get the ball to playmakers like star freshman wide receiver Cam Coleman (6 RECs, 130 YDs, 1 TD) in open space, they can find success. That will be easier said than done against a Venables-coached defense, but it’s certainly doable.

It’s all about limiting turnovers, though. If Auburn can do that, its defense may be able to finish the job.

Again, Oklahoma’s offense is in a similar situation. Hawkins may be exactly what the Sooners needed under center, or the early-season struggles may continue to hold Oklahoma back. The Tigers are hoping for the latter.

While not as elite as its opponent on defense, Auburn has still done a lot of nice things on that side of the ball. The Tigers rank 17th in opponent completion percentage (52.8%), 32nd in yards per play allowed (4.6), 34th in yards per rush allowed (3.1), and 34th in scoring defense (16.8 PPG). If Auburn can keep those trends going, it’ll have a great chance at victory.

And after losing its first two home games to Power 5 opponents – California and Arkansas – this season, the Tigers sure would love to give their fans more to cheer about before upcoming road games at Georgia and Missouri.

Final Oklahoma-Auburn Prediction & Pick

The under might be the best play of the bunch.

These two teams are searching for answers on offense, and it’s unlikely that either can find them in this particular matchup. There is just so little confidence in the offenses that, in this scenario, the most reasonable approach may be to lean on the top unit on the other side of the ball.

That’s Oklahoma’s defense, which should frustrate Freeze’s squad yet again.

The Sooners are the pick.

Final Oklahoma-Auburn Prediction & Pick: Oklahoma -2.5 (-106)

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