NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 17: Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

12/24/2024 02:32 PM

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! Let's kick off the holiday season (and the NFL Week 17 slate) with two Christmas Day games as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens do battle with the Houston Texans. So, And without further ado, let's jump right into the ClutchPoints NFL Week 17 picks, predictions, and odds column.

We are now just two weeks away from the NFL playoffs and the races are down to their final days. In the AFC, seeding is at stake and the Chiefs can unwrap the No. 1 seed by winning on Christmas. On the other end of the playoff picture, the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers need to find just one more win under the tree to clinch the final two Wild Card slots.

On the NFC side of the bracket, the NFC South, West, and North divisions are all still up in the air, although the North is just about seeding at this point as we know the Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, and Green Bay Packers are all getting in.

The NFL Week 17 schedule may be the most jam-packed six days of pro football of all time. If viewers don't get sick of the league by next Monday, then there is truly nothing the NFL can do to wear out its welcome with the American public. This slate starts with two Christmas Day games on Wednesday, a Thursday game, three Saturday fixtures — kicking off at 1:01 p.m., 4:31 p.m., and 8:30 p.m. ET — five early-window Sunday matchups, three late-window ones, a Sunday nighter, and a Monday night affair.

It's been an up-and-down few weeks here in the NFL Week 17 picks, predictions, and odds column. While we crushed Weeks 13 and 15, Week 16 was more like Week 14, which is to say, not great. Last week, we were 10-6 straight up but just 7-8-1 against the spread. That brings us to 146-94 picking winners and 121-116-3 ATS.

With that, let's get right into the NFL Week 17 picks, predictions, and odds.

Previous Weeks: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15 | Week 16

Courtesy of DraftKings, here are the NFL odds.

Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

These might be the two teams that the NFL Week 17 picks, predictions, and odds column has gotten the most wrong week after week. Every time we believe in the Steelers and the Chiefs they let us down. And the weeks after, when we take the other side out of spite, they show up and do their job.

In Week 17, one of these teams has to show their best side and get a win. It's tempting to pick the Steelers to be the team to rebound and make the AFC race that much tighter by pulling the upset, but it looks like Pittsburgh is a team that has hit its ceiling, especially with a banged-up George Pickens not at 100 percent. Kansas City certainly is hurting itself and may be without Chris Jones, but they are still the better team and if they wrap up the conference now, they can rest for two weeks.

Pick: Chiefs 20-16

Baltimore Ravens (-5) at Houston Texans

The Texans are going to make the playoffs, but only because the AFC South is among the worst divisions in football. This team that showed so much promise last season has not impressed in 2024, and while injuries do play a big part in that, there also seem to be some issues behind the curtain.

What's interesting about this game, though, is that playing a team they might see in the postseason, the Ravens may decide to go vanilla and pull out just enough to win, making the five-point spread a little scary. Still, only playing in second gear, the Ravens should have enough to win by a touchdown.

Pick: Ravens 24-17

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at Chicago Bears

Like many NFL teams in the final third of the season, the Seahawks have been exposed a bit due to injury and overall lack of [something]. In Seattle's case, that something is the lack of an elite quarterback. Geno Smith is good, he's just not great, and this is now the time of year you need to be great to win.

Maybe someday Caleb Williams will be great but that largely depends on his he handles adversity and who his next coach is. This Bears team has some talent and a bright future, but they are not fighting for their lives right now like the Seahawks are and that will be their undoing on Saturday.

Pick: Seahawks 23-13

Los Angeles Chargers (-4) at New England Patriots

The Patriots are coming off a winnable game – in the moment — against the Bills, so the temptation here might be to pick them to give the Chargers all they can handle as well. However, the Bills are a division foe, which almost always makes the games closer, and New England has a shot at Buffalo again next week.

You'll see a common theme developing in the NFL Week 17 picks, predictions, and odds column, where we give a little more juice to teams with more motivation in the penultimate week of the season here. The Chargers still need to clinch, and they'll do it this weekend.

Pick: Chargers 28-21

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)

So, who has the motivation here? Well, they both do which makes this game one of the hardest to predict in the NFL Week 17 picks, predictions, and odds column. The Bengals still have a shot at making the playoffs if they win this game. The Broncos come into the matchup in a win-and-you're-in situation.

Both these teams are pretty fraudulent playoff squads. Both have lost to nearly every playoff-adjacent team they've faced and racked up wins against the dregs of the league. While the Broncos defense is legit, the Bengals offense is the best unit in this game, and that's why they'll come away with this win to tighten the AFC race.

Pick: Bengals 30-25

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-8)

Speaking of fraudulent, let's talk about Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. At 6-4, this team was looking like a legit playoff contender. A -14 stretch later and the team's annual second-half swan dive seems now like it has less to do with Kliff Kingsbury and more to do with the QB.

A win here would virtually (if Seattle loses or LA clinches the strength of victory tiebreaker) guarantee the Rams a playoff spot, and that's exactly what they'll get Saturday night. It won't be as easy as the pundits think, as the Cards still have some fight left in them, so the Rams win but the Cardinals cover in this division matchup.

Pick: Rams 28-27

Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants (-7.5)

This game is all about one team clinching the top spot: The Giants clinching the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, that is. Yes, it's scary to trust ol' 9-of-19 passing Anthony Richardson to blow out anyone, but the Giants have some real motivation here to take the L and take it hard.

In the end, this will once again be Jonathan Taylor running all over the G Men that will get the Colts the win. Can they do it by more than a touchdown, though, with a signal-caller who struggles to complete 10 passes per game? We're going to say yes in the NFL Week 17 picks, predictions, and odds column, but with a lot of trepidation about the cover (although not the win).

Pick: Colts 23-7

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints (-1.5)

Because this is a matchup between "Who knows?" and "Who cares?" Let's talk about the draft. In 2022, Lovie Smith shockingly led the Texans to two wins in the final three weeks of the season, costing his team the No. 1 pick. That actually worked out, as Houston got C.J. Stroud instead of Bryce Young, which looks good two years in.

Antonio Pierce won last week to lose hold of the top spot in the 2025 draft, which may again feature two QBs — Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward — at the top. So, maybe Pierce actually did his franchise a solid. What could make matters worse, though, is when the Raiders win in Week 17. Yup, that's our pick… since we have to pick every game.

Pick: Raiders 13-10

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-10.5)

After last week's too-close-for-comfort win over their AFC East rival Patriots, Josh Allen admitted that the Bills didn't want to show much with the playoffs on the horizon. The same will likely hold true against the Jets, although, boy would it be nice to see Allen and the Bills send out Aaron Rodgers with a nice beatdown (on the scoreboard, of course).

What we really think is going to happen, though, is a fun shootout that the Bills end up winning narrowly. There is rain in the forecast, though, which could muddy up this game. Plus, the Chiefs play on Christmas, so the Bills may know they have no more shot at the one-seed. Still, Bills to win but by less than the spread.

Pick: Bills 35-33

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1)

The Titans and Jaguars should send a nice Christmas fruitcake to the Saints and Raiders for making them just the second-worst game on the Week 17 slate. That said, this game is absolutely terrible and has next-to-no meaning. The Jaguars beat the Titans 10-6 three weeks ago but Tennessee has played better with Mason Rudolph at the helm. Let's go same score, opposite winner for this one because why not?

Pick: Titans 10-6

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8)

The Panthers have improved dramatically since Bryce Young came back following his benching. It's probably not what head coach Dave Canales planned, but it worked so they can't be mad about it. Now, their role is to play spoiler as the NFC South race comes down to the Buccaneers and Falcons for the final two games.

Unless the Panthers play choke artists like the Cardinals, though, they don't have quite enough juice just yet to get the win. In the divisional "battle," the NFL Week 17 picks, predictions, and odds column like the Buccaneers to win but the Panthers to make it tighter than the oddsmakers think.

Pick: Buccaneers 24-21

Miami Dolphins (-6.5) at Cleveland Browns

We went away from our mathematical Miami formula last week and lost a game because of it. So now, we go back to the equation that says Dolphins + a good team v bad weather = L, while Dolphins + a bad team ∧ good weather = W.

Now, the Browns are bad, but the weather on Sunday will be cold(er than in Miami) and rainy. However, while Tua Tagovailoa is 0-7 in 45-degree or lower weather, the temperature should be a manageable 52 in Cleveland. So, carry the one… we'll take the 'Phins.

Pick: Dolphins 28-15

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5)

Jalen Hurts is in concussion protocol and his availability for this game will go a long way toward determining the final score. The Cowboys defense has been excellent of late and with Cooper Rush giving his team just enough to look good on offense, they are a tough out despite being out of the playoff race.

In the NFL Week 17 picks, predictions, and odds column, we tend to shy away from big spreads in division games, so Hurts or no Hurts, we'll take the Eagles to win by mot by double-digits.

Pick: Eagles 20-16

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-1)

This is the game of the slate on the NFL Week 17 schedule as the Vikings and Packers represent the only two surefire playoff teams going head-to-head after Christmas Day. It should be a good one but with the Packers traveling on a short week — even though Monday night was barely a game — they are at a disadvantage. The Vikings still have the No. 1 seed to play for, so let's go Vikings to win and cover.

Pick: Vikings 34-31

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (-4)

Michael Penix Jr. had the perfect first-game opponent as the Falcons easily dispatched the Giants with good defense, a solid run game, and enough passing to take care of the G Men. On the other side here, Jayden Daniels and the Commanders pulled another miracle win out, this time against the Eagles.

Penix vs. Daniels may be the NFC QB matchup that defines the next decade of football in the conference. For now, though, it should just make for a really fun game to watch on Sunday night as you wind down from the holiday festivities and start getting ready for the New Year. Washington rarely beats any decent team by a lot, so this seems like a field goal game.

Pick: Commanders 30-27

Detroit Lions (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers need this season to end so they can get healthy, go back to the drawing board, and figure out how to get right after their awful Super Bowl hangover season. Against the Lions in Week 17, though, they will suffer at least one more indignity as the team that is currently No. 1 in the NFC blows them out with relative ease.

Pick: Lions 35-20

The post NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 17: Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! appeared first on ClutchPoints.