Morgan Charriere vs. Gabriel Miranda prediction, odds, pick for UFC Paris
09/26/2024 12:40 PM
The Main Card action at UFC Paris continues to roll as we’re set for another betting prediction and pick for this next bout in the Featherweight (145) Division. Home country fighter Morgan Charriere of France will take on Brazil’s Gabriel Miranda. Check out our UFC odds series for our Charriere-Miranda prediction and pick.
Morgan Charriere (19-10-1) comes into his third UFC bout with a 1-1 record thus far. After winning his debut in exciting fashion, he most recently lost a split decision to Chepe Mariscal is a fight that could have gone either way. Now, he’ll look to get back into the win column as the heavy betting favorite. Charriere stands 5’8″ with a 69-inch reach.
Gabriel Miranda (17-6) has also gone 1-1 in his UFC career up to this point. After losing to Benoit Saint-Denis in an extremely difficult debut fight, Miranda displayed. his next-level jiu jitsu skills against Shane Young most recently, finishing the fight by submission. He’ll look for an unlikely win in this one as the sizable underdog.
Here are the UFC Paris Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Paris Odds: Morgan Charriere-Gabriel Miranda Odds
Morgan Charriere: -675
Gabriel Miranda: +490
Over 1.5 rounds: -175
Under 1.5 rounds: +135
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Why Morgan Charriere Will Win
At just 28 years old, Morgan Charriere came into the UFC with extensive experience and fight time behind him, making him a very well-rounded and balanced fighter immediately upon his arrival. He passed his first test with flying colors when he finished his debut with blistering kicks to the body that eventually crumpled his opponent. At his size, Charriere is very stocky and packs a tremendous punch with deceptive power. He’s very quick on his feet and couples it with his natural athleticism, so he’s a very tough opponent to find the target on as he’s constantly moving around the octagon. Look for him to stick to a similar game plan here as he tries to avoid grappling with Miranda.
Morgan Charriere could have easily gotten the nod in his last fight against Chepe Mariscal during the split decision, but the reality is that he wasn’t nearly as active as he was in his debut and eventually the forward pressure of his opponent got to him. Against Mariscal, Charriere was able to find his wrestling groove, but he’s not likely to be as eager in this one as his opponent has very strong jiu jitsu submissions. Charriere’s best path to victory will be keeping this fight at range and working his striking to all three levels of his opponent’s body.
Why Gabriel Miranda Will Win
Gabriel Miranda had an extremely tough fight to welcome him into the UFC in having to face Benoit Saint Denis. Not letting the loss discourage him, however, he returned even stronger as a betting underdog against Shane Young and immediately found the submission finish in the first round. It marked his sixteenth win by submission as the method accounts, for all but one of his wins which came by a knockout. He’s certainly not known for his hands, but Miranda has a very tight and precise jiu jitsu game that immediately gives him the advantage if he’s able to lock his hands and bring the fight to the ground.
Gabriel Miranda will undoubtedly look to take this fight to the mat, attempting over 4.5 takedowns per fight and landing them at a 40% clip. His opponent boasts a very impressive takedown defense rate of 87%, so Miranda may have to open his game a little more and try to best his opponent on the feet. He still poses a threat with his hands and if he’s able to land clean or force Charriere into a takedown attempt, we could see Miranda use his jiu jitsu to reverse positions or hop onto a guillotine choke.
Final Morgan Charriere-Gabriel Miranda Prediction & Pick
This will be an exciting fight as both men are very skilled in their respective disciplines, with Charriere being a phenomenal striker and Gabriel Miranda with his impressive jiu jitsu game. Given where the betting odds are at, sportsbooks are predicting that Morgan Charriere will be able to deny the takedowns and keep this fight on the feet where he’ll flourish.
This is also yet another short notice bout for Gabriel Miranda and it’ll be interesting to see how Charriere pivots to a grappling-heavy opponent this time around. The most impressive part of his game has been his takedown defense, so we expect him to continue having the upper hand in this one as he’ll dictate where the fight takes place.
For our final prediction, we’ll roll with the heavy favorite in Morgan Charriere. The safer bet, however, may be the total over in rounds since both men are a very solid matchup for each other. Let’s roll with Charriere and the over of 1.5 rounds in this fight.
Final Morgan Charriere-Gabriel Miranda Prediction & Pick: Morgan Charriere (-675); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-175)
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