Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano prediction, odds, pick for UFC 311

01/17/2025 05:09 PM

We’re set for a betting prediction and pick to cap-off UFC 311 as we see a new fight atop the Main Card. After losing Arman Tsarukyan to an injury, Lightweight Champion Islam Makhachev will face No. 10 Renato Moicano of Brazil stepping in to save the Main Event. Check the UFC odds series for our Makhachev-Moicano prediction and pick.

Islam Makhachev (26-1) has gone 15-1 inside the UFC en route to becoming Lightweight Champion. He’s defended his strap three times over Alexander Volkanovski twice and Dustin Poirier once. He’ll now have to pivot opponents to face a dangerous submission artist who’s been waiting in the wings for his title shot. The Champion stands 5-foot-10 with a 70.5-inch reach.

Renato Moicano (20-5-1) has gone 12-5 since joining the UFC in 2014. After a rocky start to his career, Moicano has since 7-1 over his last eight fights and has clawed his way to the top of this division. After most recently stopping Benoit Saint-Denis, he’ll pivot to his first title challenge and the biggest fight of his life. Moicano stands 5-foot-11 with a 72-inch reach.

Here are the UFC 311 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 311 Odds: Islam Makhachev-Renato Moicano Odds

Islam Makhachev: -1200

Renato Moicano: +740

Over 2.5 rounds: +160

Under 2.5 rounds: -210

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Why Islam Makhachev Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Dustin Poirier – SUB
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 12 SUB

Islam Makhachev will see an unexpected change in his preparation given his new opponent. However, with how late of a notice this was, all of his hard work is already done and he’ll likely come out with the same game plan he intended to always fight with. He’s considered the best MMA grappler in the world right now and his Nurmagomedov camp has historically seen success against world-class jiu jitsu practitioners. If the betting odds are any indication, this should be a much lighter fight in terms of a serious threat for Makhachev.

Still, Islam Makhachev must remain focused on the task at hand because his opponent will be fighting with nothing to lose. Moicano also has an extremely strong will and is very difficult to finish, so Makhachev won’t want to take any chances in letting this fight see the later rounds. Still, he boasts an impressive 88% control rate on the ground and is rarely in danger of being submitted, so expect Makhachev to dictate this fight from start to finish.

Why Renato Moicano Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Benoit Saint-Denis – TKO (doctor stoppage)
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 2 KO/TKO, 10 SUB

Renato Moicano really proved himself as a contender with the way he damaged Benoit Saint-Denis with relative ease. While his world-class Brazilian Jiu Jitsu remains the focus of his game, Moicano has become an increasingly devastating striker and is leaning to seriously hurt opponents with his ground-and-pound game. We’ve seen the short elbow shots became a huge part of his plan and they could offer success in this fight if he’s able to close the distance and get close to the champion.

Moicano’s biggest advantage during this fight will be the fact that he has nothing to lose if he doesn’t win on a day’s notice. This will allow him to fight freely and be even more aggressive in threatening Makhachev on the feet. Moicano is more than likely to spend some time on his back during this one, but he’ll remain a constant threat as long as he doesn’t give his own back up. Expect Moicano to throw some wild submission attempts early into the mix of this fight.

Final Islam Makhachev-Renato Moicano Prediction & Pick

While it’s not the Main Event we were all expecting, Renato Moicano should be a worthy opponent and will make for an exciting fight regardless of the result. Islam Makhachev is the clear favorite here and if there’s anything we learned from his win over Charles Oliveira, it’s that he’s more than comfortable defending himself on the ground against some of the best grapplers on the planet.

Renato Moicano will really have to come away with something unorthodox and catch Islam sleeping to get the win here. His best chance will be during the early stages of the fight when he can be most aggressive and throw his own offense at the champion.

Still, Islam Makhachev is too primed for this moment and Moicano is getting a completely different look from his original opponent in Beneil Dariush. While Moicano may make this fight exciting at first, I expect Islam Makhachev to eventually find his back and sink in a choke for the win.

Final Islam Makhachev-Renato Moicano Prediction & Pick: Islam Makhachev (-1200); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-210)

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