Darren Elkins vs. Daniel Pineda prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 99
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The UFC Vegas 99 Main Card is finally here and we’ll be bringing you another betting prediction and pick for the opening bout in the Featherweight (145) Division. Sacramento’s own Darren Elkins will square off against Houston’s Daniel Pineda in a can’t-miss brawl. Check out our UFC odds series for our Elkins-Pineda prediction and pick.
Darren Elkins (28-11) comes in with an 18-10 overall UFC record since 2010. He’s an active mainstay within the division and has alternated wins while going 3-2 in his last five fights. He most recently beat TJ Brown with a rear naked choke and will look to build upon his momentum here. Elkins stands 5’10” with a 71-inch reach.
Daniel Pineda (28-16) has gone 5-7-0-1 since joining the UFC in 2012. With intermittent stints in Bellator and PFL, Pineda has gone 1-2-1 in his last four fights and hopes to rebound from two consecutive decision losses. He comes into this bout as the short betting favorite and could greatly improve his stock with a win. Pineda stands 5’7″ with a 69-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 99 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 99 Odds: Darren Elkins-Daniel Pineda Odds
Darren Elkins: -102
Daniel Pineda: -118
Over 2.5 rounds: +130
Under 2.5 rounds: -166
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Why Darren Elkins Will Win
Darren Elkins will be stepping into the cage once again following his October 2023 win over TJ Brown via submission finish. At 40 years old, Elkins looked extremely capable in his last performance by keeping up with a young and athletic grappler like Brown. He’s bound to see another hungry opponent in Pineda, but Elkins finds his greatest strength by wearing opponents down and dragging them into a nasty fight. Expect nothing short of a brawl if Darren Elkins begins to push the pace in this one.
NEVER count Darren Elkins out of a fight!!
The Damage comes back and stops Darrick Minner in Round 2 #UFCVegas32pic.twitter.com/V4YUQ5Q3aS
— UFC Canada (@UFC_CA) July 25, 2021
Darren Elkins has taken a ton of damage throughout his career, but he seems to only grow stronger in the fight if he faces some early adversity. He’s had a number of comeback efforts inside the cage and due to his relentless pressure, he’s far more immune to breaking than his opponents eventually are. He’s consistent in firing his jab in front and his wrestling has been known to become suffocating in the later rounds of the fight. Elkins can’t be doubted throughout this fight until the final bell sounds.
Why Daniel Pineda Will Win
Daniel Pineda has been looking for consistency since re-entering the UFC, notching two finishing wins over Herbert Burns and Tucker Lutz. With 19 wins by way of submission, Pineda is an extremely dangerous jiu jitsu practitioner and has tremendous squeeze when locking in his chokes. He’s also very good at reversing positions on the ground and can quickly tie his opponents up into awkward angles. Look for him to have the advantage in submission grappling if this fight hits the mat.
He gets the tap!
@DanielPitPineda sinking in a crafty guillotine at #UFCSanAntoniopic.twitter.com/XtO5Knvnhg
— UFC (@ufc) March 25, 2023
Daniel Pineda is also equipped with underrated skills in his boxing at he hits his significant strikes at a high 49%. While he may not have the output to match Elkins’ feints and varied looks, Pineda can typically hit his target and make a noticeable impact when doing so. He should prove to be the more athletic grappler and his creativity in finding submissions will only work in his favor.
Final Darren Elkins-Daniel Pineda Prediction & Pick
This fight is guaranteed to be a brawl as neither fighter is scared to stand in the center of the octagon and mix it up. Darren Elkins favors a more balanced striking approach, leading with constant feints and his lead jab. Pineda, on the other hand, is a very skilled counter-puncher and will pick his shots with precision. If the fight hits the mat, you have to like the upside with Pineda’s submission ability over Elkins’ toughness.
Still, we’ve see Darren Elkins survive in bouts like this and unless he’s knocked out or submitted, he’ll continue to march forward with a barrage of pressure and strikes. Look for Elkins to remain patient throughout this one as he’ll be monitoring Pineda’s gas tank and waiting for his opponent to tire himself.
Daniel Pineda should cruise to a victory in this fight if he’s able to maintain his composure and keep his energy high. Losing his cardio would be a worst-case scenario for Pineda, but we’re confident his gas tank will be in top shape ahead of this bout as he searches for another finish.
For our final prediction, we have to roll with Daniel Pineda to get the win behind his offensive grappling and precise striking. He should be able to put a few on Elkins’ chin before reversing positions and finding his 20th submission win.
Final Darren Elkins-Daniel Pineda Prediction & Pick: Daniel Pineda (-118)
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