Runner-Up Race Tightens Going into Final Session (Day 4 Ups/Downs)

03/22/2025 04:28 PM

By Madeline Folsom on SwimSwam

2025 NCAA Division I Women's Swimming and Diving Championships

• March 19-22, 2025
• Weyerhaeuser King County Aquatics Center — Federal Way, Washington
• Short Course Yards (25 yards)
• Start Times: Prelims: 10 AM ׀ Finals: 6 PM (Pacific Daylight Time)
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• Live Recaps:
  • Prelims: Day 2 | Day 3 | Day 4
  • Finals: Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 

For those unfamiliar with swimming terminology, the concept of "Ups" and "Downs" is a good way to track which teams performed best during prelims. In prelims at the NCAA Championships swimmers qualify for one of three finals: the top eight finishers make the 'A' final (Ups) and places nine through 16 make the 'B' final (Downs). In finals, swimmers are locked into their respective final, meaning a swimmer in the 'B' final can only place as high as 9th or as low as 16th, even if they swim the fastest or slowest time of the event in any final.

With that in mind, we track "Ups" and "Downs" after each prelims session as a way to follow the team race. Thanks to Andrew Mering for running the numbers.

Ups/Downs

Virginia has all but locked up the team title going into the final day of the meet, putting the most swimmers into finals for the 3rd day in a row. They had a strong prelims session, ending up with six 'A' finalists and three 'B' finalists.

Stanford had a good morning, but maybe not the morning they needed if they are wanting to stay ahead of Texas once diving and mile points come into the picture. They were -1 from their projected score today, putting four swimmers up and no athletes down.

Tennessee finally had a strong prelims session, qualifying the same number of finalists as Virginia, but with three 'up' and four 'down'.

Michigan also had a very strong prelims session, and are looking to double their individual points in tonight's finals. Coming into today they only had 37 individual points. Today alone, they are projected to score 39, not counting miles, diving, or relays.

Projected Scoring By Event

Again, this scoring does not include the mile or relays. UVA is projected to score the most individual points in every event except the 200 fly, where Texas is projected to rake in 42 points, the most of any other event.

Virginia's best event this morning was the 100 freestyle, where their point projection puts them at 38. They are also looking to score in the 30s in the 200 fly at 32 points.

Stanford didn't put anybody in the 200 back final, which is fine cause Texas didn't either, but they have 17 projected points in the 100 free and the 200 breast, and 30 projected points in the 200 fly.

Texas did not have anybody final that wasn't in the 200 butterfly, so all of their points from prelims are in a single event. They do have the edge in mile scoring though, projecting 34 points in that event alone to Stanford's 17. They also are predicted to have an advantage in the diving.

Projected Prelims Points:

• UVA: 115.0
• Stanford: 64.0
• Tennessee: 52.5
• Texas: 42
• Michigan: 39.0
• Indiana: 38.0
• California: 36.0
• NC State: 27.0
• Louisville: 24.0
• Florida: 23.5
• Wisconsin: 21.0
• BYU: 20.0
• South Carolina: 18.0
• Alabama: 16.0
• Washington St.: 16.0
• Duke: 15.0
• VT: 13.0
• USC: 11.0
• Ohio State: 8
• Florida St: 5.5
• Fresno State: 4.5
• Ohio: 4.0
• UNC: 3.0
• SIU: 3.0
• Georgia: 1

Prelims points + Actual points

1. UVA: 498.0
2. Stanford: 356.0
3. Texas: 330.0
4. Tennessee: 247.5
5. Indiana: 247.0
6. Florida: 200.5
7. Louisville: 184.5
8. California: 175.5
9. Michigan: 160.0
10. NC State: 141.0
11. Wisconsin: 114.0
12. USC: 101.0
13. Miami (FL): 75.5
14. Alabama: 57.0
15. UNC: 53.0
16. Ohio State: 45.5
17. Arizona State: 41.5
18. Georgia: 38.5
19. South Carolina: 33.0
20. Duke: 33.0
21. BYU: 32.0
22. VT: 30.0
23. Kansas: 25.0
24. Purdue: 25.0
25. PITT: 21.0
26. Arizona: 20.0
27. SIU: 18.0
28. Washington St.: 17.0
29. LSU: 15.0
30. Cincinnati: 15.0
31. Houston: 13.0
32. Texas A&M: 11.0
33. Florida St: 7.5
34. Auburn: 6.0
35. Princeton: 6.0
36. Fresno State: 4.5
37. Arkansas: 4.0
38. Ohio: 4.0
39. Minnesota: 2.0
40. Akron: 2.0

Prelims + Actual projections have Stanford coming out 16 points ahead of Texas for 2nd place. This isn't an extremely comfortable position for the Cardinal due to the extra points that Texas rakes in on diving and the difference in projected mile points. Every swim is going to matter for tonight's final for both teams.

We also see a very strong race happening for the 4th place team. Tennessee sits just 0.5 points ahead of Indiana in our projections due to their performance today. While Indiana generally has the edge in diving, Tennessee has a higher threshold in their sprint freestylers, coming in as the 3rd seed in the 400 freestyle relay to Indiana's 8th seed. The Vols haven't been having an amazing meet, but they seem to have turned that around slightly in prelims, so we will see how that shakes out in tonight's finals.

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