Predictions, Odds, Analysis! UFC Macau, X-Factor
11/20/2024 09:00 AM
This weekend (Sat., Nov. 23, 2024), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventures forth to Galaxy Arena in Macau, SRA, China, for UFC Macau. This event has been a long time coming, as UFC hasn't been to China since 2019 and Macau in over a decade. The focus, of course, is on highlighting local talent, and the undercard is filled with nothing but. For those across the Pacific, however, the real draw here is the extraordinary main event between former champions Petr Yan and Deiveson Figueiredo, a fight which could potentially score the victor a title shot. More importantly, it's a certified B-B-BANGER!
Let's dig into all the main card fights leading up to the co-main event:
Welterweight: Song Kenan(+150) vs. Muslim Salikhov(-180)
Best Win for Kenan? Ricky Glenn For Salikhov? Elizeu Zaleski
Current Streak: Both won their last bout
X-Factor: Salikhov is 40
How these two match up: This should be a fun kickboxing match.
Over the last seven years, Kenan has established himself as a perfectly solid, middle-of-the-pack UFC Welterweight. He's tough and hits hard, but he's not skilled enough to really break free of those ranks. Conversely, Salikhov joined the promotion a little too late to go on any kind of real run. Instead, the decorated Wushu Sanda champion — who competed in Sanda and fought professionally quite a bit in China previous to this booking — has settled well into the grizzled veteran role, winning more often than not and proving himself a consistently tough out.
Salikhov has lost a bit in the way of speed and durability, but he showed last time out against Santiago Ponzinibbio that he can still handle a 15-minute scrap. More to the point, he's the significantly sharper range striker here. Kenan doesn't really have the tools to take the fight anywhere else consistently, so the Chinese fighter is counting on a knockout to win.
A decision the other way feels more likely.
Prediction: Salikhov via decision
Women's Flyweight: Wang Cong(-850) vs. Gabriella Fernandes(+575)
Best Win for Cong? Wu Yanan For Fernandes? Carli Judice
Current Streak: Cong is 6-0 (one win in UFC), where Fernandes won her last bout
X-Factor: Cong has a ton of combat sports experience
How these two match up: Look at those odds! This is a showcase.
Cong's UFC debut back in August was spectacular. How often do we see 62-second, one-punch KOs at Women's Flyweight? Better yet, Cong is a Sanda champion with professional kickboxing experience and a win over Valentina Shevchenko! The hype train is just getting started, and at 32 years of age, Cong could find herself in the title mix sooner than later.
Fernandez, unfortunately, will be fulfilling the role of sacrifice barring something spectacular. The Brazilian is a solid kickboxer in her own right, but her wrestling defense has left something to be desired in three UFC appearances. More importantly, there's just going to be a massive gap in speed and power.
It wouldn't shock me if Cong's athleticism is covering up some weaknesses in her wrestling and/or grappling, but this isn't the match up that will expose those issues.
Prediction: Cong via decision
Light Heavyweight: Volkano Oezdemir (+205) vs. Carlos Ulberg(-250)
Best Win for Oezdemir? Aleksandar Rakic For Ulberg? Alonzo Menifield
Current Streak: Oezdemir has won two straight, while Ulberg has put together a six-fight win streak
X-Factor: It's a serious step up in competition for Ulberg
How these two match up: This is a quality veteran vs. prospect match up of 205-pound strikers.
Oezdemir rose to the top of the ladder to score his first title shot quickly. Since then, however, he's settled more in the bottom half of the Top 10. "No Time" is a powerful striker and better technician than many Light Heavyweights, but he also struggles when grounded or forced to maintain a particularly high pace.
Ulberg is one of the few interesting up-and-comers in his division. Training at City Kickboxing, Ulberg's experience and comfort on the feet is very apparent. He manages range well, chooses his shots wisely, and is clearly a top-tier athlete with great size for the division.
Oezdemir presents two interesting threats to Ulberg here: pure punching power and his calf kicks. Unlike many previous Ulberg foes, Oezdemir does have the kickboxing skill to compete with his opponent at distance, meaning he doesn't have to lunge into easy counters. The question, then, is whether Oezdemir can win a more drawn out fight at the kickboxing range.
I expect something like his pair of fights with Dominick Reyes and Aleksandar Rakic: extremely competitive fights that could've gone either way! Ultimately, I think "Black Jag" has enough fluidity in his movement to make Oezdemir miss and maintain the higher connection rate, which should help sway the judges.
Prediction: Ulberg via decision
Light Heavyweight: Zhang Minyang (-298) vs. Ozzy Diaz(+240)
Best Win for Minyang? Brendson Ribeiro For Diaz? Bruno Assis
Current Streak: Minyang recently won his UFC debut, whereas Diaz has won two in a row ahead of his own debut here
X-Factor: Both men win and lose via KO more than anything else
How these two match up: This barnburner is likely to end inside a round.
Minyang debuted back in February, starching Ribeiro in less than two minutes. The Chinese powerhouse has stopped all of his opponents via knockout or decision and has never seen the judges' scorecards even in defeat! Admittedly, his level of competition hasn't been great, but "Mountain Tiger" also hasn't lost since 2019.
Diaz, conversely, joined the UFC roster via more conventional means. A knockout loss to Joe Pyfer on Contenders Series delayed his call up, but an unbeaten record in LFA has earned him this opportunity. Like his opponent, Diaz is a striker first and foremost, having stopped seven of nine wins via knockout. As an additional fun fact, he lost to Dominick Reyes as an amateur way back in 2014!
Similar to the Cong fight above — though less of an extreme example — this match up feels designed for the local talent to shine. Zhang is younger, more powerful, and more experienced. Once more, we don't really know if his grappling defense is up to the UFC standard, but Diaz doesn't feel like the opponent to test him on the floor.
Instead, these two are going to stand-and-bang, and we know Zhang is a spectacularly fast starter. There are no guarantees in the chaos, but it's hard not to favor "Mountain Tiger" to remain standing when the dust settles.
Prediction: Zhang via knockout
