Monday horse racing tips from Tom Lunn at Pontefract, Wolverhampton and Windsor
07/01/2024 06:09 AM
talkSPORT have you covered for horse racing with free racing tips and free bets from the day’s fixtures at Pontefract, Wolverhampton and Windsor.
Tom Lunn has gone through the cards, form, going and much more to help guide your horse racing betting choices.
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Daily horse racing tips
- PONTEFRACT
3.15: Sunshine Soul 17/2 Each-way (0.5pt)*
3.45: Savvy Exchange 9/1 Each-way (1pt)* - WOLVERHAMPTON
6.30: Night On Earth 15/2 Each-way (0.5pt)* - WINDSOR
7.15: Shagraan 5/4 (1.5pts) & Aramis Grey 20/1 Each-way (0.5pt)* - *Each-way Yankee (1pt)
Sunshine Soul
Can see the appeal of the favourite considering her wide margin success last time out.
However, she wasn’t really tested by any horse that is at her level, with second being rated 69 subsequently.
Sunshine Soul however, offers a nice each-way chance at 17/2.
You can probably draw a line through her latest performance at York, clearly something amiss there to finish last, with softer ground likely to play a part.
Though she’s got the firm ground she’s after this time around and has Billy Loughnane in the saddle again on her step up to 6f which will be beneficial.
She looked to get going later on at Nottingham on debut and placed well behind a useful filly who has gone on to score at Royal Ascot’s Queen Mary Stakes, a Group 2 contested by 24 runners.
So her form has been boosted considerably and warrants backing at this price over an odds-on return.
Savvy Exchange
Really strong contender to at least place in this kind of field given this three-year-old’s consistency already.
Close to winning on debut to Swindon at Wolverhampton back in November and returned this season in May over course and distance to win nicely ahead of Operate as the odds-on favourite.
Carried a big penalty for that success on his next outing at Windsor in a novice event and ultimately paid the price coming fifth.
But that was still encouraging as those ahead were carrying much less and were also rated higher, like Midair who came second.
That should give him a great chance on what should be a workable mark and this colt could be well-weighted to continue his progress.
Old Cock may have this comfortably on return to 1m where he thrived before, but he will also have to improve again to win as the odds demand it at 5/6.
Savvy Exchange is said to need more handicapping, but arguably should go well on his handicap debut for that reason.
Night On Earth
This horse has superior experience over 5f than many of these horses and may find it tough to give weight away to a couple of these three-year-olds, but they aren’t exactly a certainty to thrive over a drop in trip from 6f.
Night On Earth has been dropped in the weights from 86 to 81 with that latest run.
But crucially he has good form at this track and has a record of 21242 here so can’t be ruled out each-way for another addition to the tips at a big price.
Reigning Profit could also see some improvement after a couple of poorer runs, but is now dropped to a dangerous mark to strike well here.
Invincible Speed has been promising this season on the all-weather at 6f but it’s not clear if 5f really is the factor to prompt a win.
Shagraan & Aramis Grey
Most of these runners have won over course and distance before which is rare to see this many up against each other.
Aramis Grey has drifted in the odds massively this morning at best odds available from the main bookies and should be considered as an each-way play for small stakes for that price.
She was giving away 11lb earlier this month at Haydock after a small break and outran his 22/1 odds, also over 6f so there’s no reason she can’t do it again.
Shagraan is a great price to go for a straight win though. The gelding faces a few fillies and mares in this and as a three-year-old gets an allowance.
Add to that his fifth place finish of 28 at Royal Ascot, for which he’s not been upped in the weights at all for, he should be primed and well weighted to go further here.
The step up to 6f that he also coped well with at Newmarket may be the only slight disadvantage but it could also be a help rather than a hindrance considering he’s had five of his eight runs at this trip, just once this season after a long break.
Tom Lunn’s Profit/Loss
- P/L from May ’24: +100.46pts
- P/L from July ’23: +313.02pts
All odds correct at time of writing
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