King George VI Chase Day tips: Best bets at Kempton from Tom Lunn
12/24/2024 06:28 AM
talkSPORT have you covered with free horse racing tips and free bets on Boxing Day’s highlight of the day at Kempton – the King George VI Chase.
Tom Lunn has gone through the cards, form, going and much more to help guide your horse racing betting choices.
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King George VI Chase preview
There’s a plethora of racing on Boxing Day as racing returns after a rare few days off over the festive period.
The King George VI Chase is the main race of the day, as a regular Christmas cracker on Boxing Day’s lineup at Kempton, with the Grade 1 often producing some of the best races of the year.
Last year was no different, as we saw Hewick come from miles back to plug on in the final few yards and get his head in front.
With how tough this race is, it has the tendency to throw out some big priced winners as a result. Hewick at 12/1 (2023), Tornado Flyer at 28/1 (2021), Frodon 20/1 (2020) and Clan Des Obeaux 12/1 (2018) to name just a few recent ones.
There were constant favourites winning in previous years as we have been spoilt before with the likes of Kauto Star, Desert Orchid, One Man, Silviniaco Conti, and Wayward Lad.
This year’s looks quite wide open, with a range of horses in the mix; 2022’s winner Bravemansgame for instance, a five-year-old French-trained gelding, some established 3m Graded chasers and a couple of shorter priced contenders that could step up this season.
This year has the biggest field since 2009 which says a lot, but does open the betting up nicely.
King George VI Chase tips
- 2.30: Bravemansgame 20/1 & The Real Whacker 33/1 Each-way (2pts total)
Bravemansgame & The Real Whacker
Spillane’s Tower is the early favourite but the market is likely to change over the course of the week up to the off.
Especially this year where there’s no short priced favourite and it’s so wide open.
The James Joseph Mangan-trained horse ran well behind Fact To File on seasonal debut surprising a few at 18/1.
He has form over 3m too, but just the one race, making him unexposed and a potential danger to rivals chances.
But that’s not always a good thing especially in a race like the King George where there’s often an honest pace from the start and the stamina comes into play toward the final few furlongs.
That was displayed last year as Hewick won from way off the pace, as the others out front were battling away but ultimately not as fast.
I have to say I thought Grey Dawning looked like a three miler and when he won at Warwick in January thought he could be a real King George contender.
He went down in trip at Cheltenham Festival and at Aintree the following months, but stepped back up to beyond 3m on seasonal debut.
That was a solid run too despite losing as the favourite behind Royale Pagaille, who would have been a strong contender had he run here.
This horse is only seven and it’s not uncommon to see them tough it out and really develop at this age to win a King George.
That’s one reason to potentially dismiss the five-year-old Juntos Ganamos, as there’s only ever been one winner of that age and that was back in 1950.
That also makes it tougher to back Il Est Francais at 5’s too as he’s only six, and it’s a rarity especially recently to see a six-year-old win.
You can certainly make cases for plenty of these horses, including Bravemansgame who’s a massive 20/1 shot at the moment despite coming 2nd in this race last year.
That said, he’s been below par since and he was a fair few lengths off of Royale Pagaille and Grey Dawning at Haydock in the Betfair Chase.
I think Grey Dawning is tough enough to win a King George, has the form over this distance and is the consistent type to really challenge in a race like this.
One major concern would be the ground though as he’s been withdrawn as a non-runner on good ground before and could well be taken out on the day.
With the ground and all other factors I can see it being another big price winner and there’s huge value in going for Envoi Allen, Bravemansgame or The Real Whacker.
Envoi Allen didn’t quite look like he is suited to Kempton when he was seventh here in 2022, but the other two have had recent placings in the King George and it would be wise to hope they can at least place again.
I’ve often opposed The Real Whacker when betting, but he makes such a strong case here, especially after beating Bravemansgame at Wetherby last month.
He was fourth in this last year and even beat Gerri Colombe in the Brown Advisory in 2023, so at 33/1 he looks a great bet, in fact they both do.
Tom Lunn’s Profit/Loss
- November ’24: +53.11
- From May ’24: +207.47pts
- From July ’23: +420.37pts
All odds correct at time of writing
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