Freshman Title Going to the Wire

11/14/2024 12:04 PM

If it stays like this, a single maiden winner might settle it. Because all that separates McKinzie ($2,294,679) from current leader Tiz the Law ($2,339,575) in the freshman table is $44,896. But wait, there's more. McKinzie isn't even second. Between the pair lurks Vekoma ($2,306,457), ensuring a desperate three-way contest for the prized laurels of champion first-season sire.

It's even closer than this time last year, when four stallions were divided by barely $200,000. In the end, Mitole actually extended his lead down the stretch. But the fact that the four protagonists increased their aggregate earnings by over a quarter, during these closing weeks, shows how much there is still to play for. An abundance of juvenile racing will allow less precocious stock to find their feet, while remaining graded prizes include the GII Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and GII Remsen Stakes.

Nor is it just the still tighter margins that make things so much tenser this time round. In 2023, remarkably, the Spendthrift team knew by midsummer that they housed the champion freshman: all four contenders were on their roster. This time their hopes of a third consecutive title (Bolt d'Oro was tops in 2022) are vested in Vekoma, with Tiz the Law going out to bat for Coolmore and McKinzie for Gainesway.

Two things leap out about Tiz the Law's position, precarious as it may be, at the head of the table.

One is that his principal earner has contributed a good deal more to his bank than is the case for his rivals, thanks to the lavish endowment of the stakes he won at Kentucky Downs. Subsequently runner-up in the GIII Street Sense Stakes, Tiztastic accounts for almost precisely a third of his sire's total. Chancer McPatrick has earned 23 percent of McKinzie's, while fellow 'TDN Rising Star' Jonathan's Way chips in a mere 9 percent for Vekoma.

But the other obvious remark about Tiz the Law redresses that imbalance impressively, in that he has had considerably fewer starters: he has fielded 43 to date, compared with 64 for Vekoma and 54 for McKinzie. (All data, incidentally, correct through Nov. 13.)

Surprising as it may seem, given his farm's history, Tiz the Law is working from much the smallest debut crop of the trio. He has 88 named foals, against 147 for Vekoma (representing another operation notorious for volume) and 141 for McKinzie (whose farm strikingly appears to have released the brakes). For while he certainly covered fewer mares (159) than the other pair (Vekoma 222/McKinzie 214) in 2021, his available arsenal additionally reflects a somewhat lower final percentage of live foalings that first year (101, versus 174 for McKinzie and 161 for Vekoma). Tiz the Law has successfully ironed out that disparity since, however, and has a much bigger second book to launch next year (218 mares producing 154 live foals).

In that context, he deserves particular credit for also heading the class as the only sire with five stakes winners; and for sharing with just McKinzie the additional distinction of four graded stakes performers. Two of those (Scythian, GII Miss Grillo Stakes; No Complaint, GII Oak Leaf Stakes) have won at that level, something matched only by the early trailblazer Complexity (who has faded to fourth, nonetheless an outstanding debut from 98 named foals) and again McKinzie.

Tiz the Law's good start has earned him a hike to $30,000 for 2025, consecutive trims having previously halved his opening fee to $20,000. He's an easy horse to root for, his trajectory having crossed with that of the maturing Authentic during a controversial revision of the Classic schedule during the pandemic. He had certainly flaunted the precocity sought by commercial breeders, and his family has meanwhile continued to flourish: fourth dam Evil Elaine now has another GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile under her shade, besides her son Favorite Trick (Phone Trick), as she's the third dam of Citizen Bull (Into Mischief).

Tiz the Law's expanded second book has been represented by a class-high 109 yearlings into the ring this year, 90 selling at a median $66,695-a heartening advance on the rather tepid $53,500 yield of his first yearlings. (His average, conversely, stands at $79,092 from $99,835.) He has a smaller third crop incoming (98 live foals) but with his sire Constitution now beyond most pockets, Tiz the Law is laying sustainable foundations whether or not he retains his lead.

Vekoma has somewhat reversed Tiz the Law's experience: though he again covered 200 mares in 2022, it was his turn to achieve (temporarily, also) a somewhat lower ratio of live foals, producing “only” 128 in his second crop, down from 161. But these have proved big winners at the sales, where 65 sold (of 73 offered) to move his average up to $141,841 from $98,432, and his median to a cracking $110,000 from $60,000.

He duly exemplifies the Spendthrift model. He was launched at $20,000, a fee that as usual traded accessibility for likely catalogue competition; and, sure enough, has had plenty of runners (albeit with plenty still to follow). As his perspiring neighbor Authentic can attest, however, that does not guarantee prolific success and Vekoma's ratio of winners–33 from 64 starters–is outstanding. Eleven have also reached a black-type podium, four of them making the winner's circle including Jonathan's Way, his first graded stakes scorer in the GIII Iroquois Stakes.

Having taken a couple of clips to $15,000, Vekoma has climbed to $35,000 for 2025. He has a bumper third crop on its way, comprising 154 live foals, and while he managed no more than eight starts across three campaigns, his excellence at four–including in the commercially appealing GI Met Mile and GI Carter Handicap–augurs well for the continued development of his stock. Having majored in speed, not least by the standards of his sire (of sires) Candy Ride (Arg), it'll be fascinating to see how some of the later Vekomas may deal with longer distances. His mother (Grade I winner in the slop) was out of a half-sister to Mr. Greeley and theirs is also the family of Street Sense, so everything is in place for Vekoma to build on these auspicious foundations.

Speaking of Street Sense, however, there's no mistaking a consensus that the biggest hitter of this intake will turn out to be his son McKinzie. In fact, his fee for next year has rocketed to $75,000 from $30,000.

In fairness, even before his stock reached the track, the marketplace had paid McKinzie an unusual compliment. As a rule, the agents and managers dutifully ensure that first-crop yearling averages almost slavishly mirror the sequence of covering fees, and they duly paid much the most for the first crop of Authentic (retired at $75,000). But they had already made McKinzie something of a rockstar with his first weanlings ($132,500 median) and followed through with his class-high offering of 144 at the 2023 yearling sales. (As noted, Gainesway were not going to let other farms beat him with quantity.) These achieved 110 sales at an average $149,157, albeit a $90,000 median measured his good fortune in covering Puca (Big Brown), whose son Mage (Good Magic) had meanwhile made their colt worth $1.2 million.

Now it must be acknowledged that McKinzie has marshalled his resources quite ingeniously to this point. His 16 winners from 54 starters are pretty pedestrian (30%) relative not only to his big rivals (Vekoma 52%/Tiz the Law 42%) but also to several with lesser resources. Moreover, his two stakes winners similarly leave him behind that pair (and Complexity) and matched by a handful of others. But he has made his punches tell in crushing fashion: both his black-type winners (Chancer McPatrick, Hopeful Stakes/Champagne Stakes; Scottish Lassie, Frizette Stakes) have won Grade I races; while two others placed in graded stakes company, Quickick and McKinzie Street, have similarly done so at the elite level (actually twice apiece).

These headline acts have helped McKinzie's second crop achieve a $156,159 average and $130,000 median from 88 sold (100 offered). Moreover 21 of 22 third-crop weanlings have sold for a stellar $150,000 median (and a remarkably similar average).

The Gainesway team have been recruiting very purposefully as Tapit enters the evening of his career, and must be hugely excited by McKinzie's start. After all, he has shown less of his hand (has started 38 percent of named first-crop foals) than Tiz the Law (49 percent) and Vekoma (44 percent); and himself offers a wholesome template for continued progress as a Grade I winner at two, three and four, harvesting 11 triple-digit Beyers.

That record demonstrated a genetic functionality that wouldn't have been obvious with his first three dams by Petionville, Houston and Navajo, but his mother Runway Model had done as much already, as a dual Grade II winner. McKinzie's physique has obviously been driving much of his auction vogue and, while he will have rather less volume through the next two crops (133/121 live foals), he covered 185 mares last spring and can now drool over a major upgrade in their caliber for 2025. Whether or not he can overtake his rivals by Dec. 31 feels pretty incidental, really: no horse in the intake has superior momentum.

Granted that it is all a numbers game, we must beware of unduly exalting this trio when several others in the intake have punched well above weight. Some will doubtless feature in our upcoming Value Sires series, but for now we should reiterate the superb start of Complexity, plus some excellent work from limited mares by Thousand Words. As noted above, Complexity was working from a smaller arsenal than those above him. Those who nonetheless persevered (what courage, in this day and age!) for his second season, again at just $12,500, have been celebrating a six-figure average at the yearling sales.

Let's hope that some of the others to have outperformed more expensive start-ups will also be given the oxygen of opportunity. After all, the freshman title itself brings no guarantee of lasting stardom. Yes, it has been won over the past decade by the likes of Gun Runner, Nyquist, Uncle Mo and Quality Road. But you wouldn't want to be emulating Overanalyze, exported to Korea just a couple of years later.

It is clearly premature to be judging the overall caliber of this intake. Given that the first book tends to be the biggest and best ever assembled by the majority of stallions, however, the self-fulfilling prejudices of the market should guarantee plenty of good first-crop graduates every year. To its credit, this lot have collectively mustered 11 graded stakes winners already, compared with the humiliating aggregate of three scraped together by the 2023 newcomers. It already feels clear that the 2022 table featured several that will last the course, and they duly managed 13. That laid the ground for a remarkable total of 37 graded stakes winners they compiled last year, between their first sophomores and second-crop juveniles, whereas last year's freshmen have only reached 10 in 2024 so far.

Nowadays commercial judgements are made with ruthless haste. The theory goes that if you can't afford the big guns, you roll the dice on a rookie in the hope of landing on the next Gun Runner. If that were so, however, farms would not be experiencing so much difficulty in maintaining mare traffic through the three springs, often at diminishing fees, that divide first covers from a meaningful sampling of first runners. Many breeders just hop from one group of rookies to the next, determined to be safely out of range long before stock gets anywhere near the gate. History duly tells us that even the three contesting this race cannot be complacent of lasting success; but it also shows, perhaps even more clearly, that the writing must already be on the wall for many in their wake.

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