Handicapping NBA's tank race for Cooper Flagg by most likely team to land No. 1 draft pick
12/03/2024 08:00 AM
These nine NBA teams are still in the mix for winning the 2025 NBA Draft lottery and the rights to Cooper Flagg.
It only took about 20 games for the 2024-2025 NBA season to completely reshape what we thought we knew coming into the year. The Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder emerging as the championship favorites in each conference was to be expected, but there are plenty of surprises after that.
The Cleveland Cavaliers look like a juggernaut, the Orlando Magic are still pummeling teams without the injured Paolo Banchero, and the Houston Rockets are going from a fun, young team to a real contender. The top of the league picture still needs more time to come into focus, but the bottom is already becoming clear.
The 2025 NBA Draft has a big prize at the top in Duke freshman forward Cooper Flagg. With such a strong No. 1 overall prospect in this class, teams near the bottom of the standings are going to start prioritizing their draft position over maximizing their wins if they haven't already. Here's an updated look at which teams could land the first pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, broken up into tiers.
Read our full 2025 NBA mock draft here. Read our feature on how Flagg grew into a future No. 1 overall pick here.
Need to sell off pieces soon
Brooklyn Nets: I pegged the Nets as the second worst team in the league coming into the season. If the season ended on Monday morning, Brooklyn's draft pick wouldn't even be inside the top-10. The Nets have looked downright competent under new head coach Jordi Fernandez during a 9-12 start, with Cam Thomas stockpiling points on better than expected efficiency, and Dennis Schröder turning in one of the better years of his career. It feels like Nets leadership is still on the same page about chasing Flagg this season, but they're going to have trade pieces off well before the Feb. trade deadline to actually have a shot at him. Dorian Finney-Smith and Cameron Johnson are the most likely trade candidates here, but don't be surprised if Thomas and Schröder are moved too — especially if the wins keep piling up.
Chicago Bulls: The Bulls are playing at the NBA's fastest pace, and have gone from the league's most hesitant three-point shooting team to one of its most willing. Chicago can pull some upsets when the threes are falling, but there's still not much hope here for the future. The Bulls can point to Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic both playing near an All-Star level for why they've remained competitive. Both players have been on the trading block since at least last summer, and now there might finally be a market for their services after hot starts to this season. LaVine's contract is still enormous, and teams will have to decide if his high-volume three-point shooting (43 percent from deep on the year) is worth the financial pain. Vucevic figures to be easier to move with his three-point shot becoming automatic (nearly 47 percent from three!) and only one more season at $20 million on his deal. If the Bulls can move LaVine, Vucevic, and Lonzo Ball soon, they're going to get right back in the Flagg sweepstakes. If not, the veteran trio will have Chicago flirting with losing its top-10 protected draft pick to the San Antonio Spurs. The Bulls wouldn't mind if the younger teams in the East (the Hornets, Pistons, and Hawks among them) started playing with more consistency.
Portland Trail Blazers: The Blazers earned some surprising wins in Nov., including two over the Timberwolves, a win against the Rockets, and a victory against the Sacramento Kings. It feels like this roster is split into two timelines: there's the veterans productive enough to push for the play-in tournament (Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, Deni Avdija), then there's the younger core who are showing signs of life but probably needs at least one more year of development (Shaedon Sharpe, Donovan Clingan). Scoot Henderson looks like a big disappointment so far, but at least Toumani Camara looks good? The Blazers have a history of tanking hard after the All-Star break, and I'd expect the same to happen again despite an 8-13 start. There's just not much room to maneuver upwards in the West, and that will make Portland's pivot an easy choice once again.
One injury away from tanking
Philadelphia 76ers: I ranked the 76ers as a championship contender coming into the season. Whoops. Philly has been a train wreck from the very start, with Joel Embiid looking like a shell of himself, Paul George being unable to regain top form after a preseason knee injury, and the depth around them looking worse than expected. The Sixers are 4-14 despite Jared McCain playing like the easy Rookie of the Year to start the season. Philly's goal all along has just been to get to the playoffs healthy, and that's theoretically still on the table. It really all comes back to Embiid: does the player who was breaking per-minute scoring records last year still exist, or have injuries taken him away for good? The Sixers' draft pick is top-6 protected, which means they'll be flirting with the disaster of losing their pick if they don't turn it around. Right now, the Sixers are squarely in position to keep their pick and select a top prospect .... but this team has to turn it around at some point, right? The Sixers might not be on this list a month from now, but if Embiid doesn't come back at full strength soon, the idea of tanking for Flagg won't seem so crazy.
Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball is having a fantastic year, but it wasn't leading to many wins for the Hornets even before his latest calf injury that will keep him out a couple weeks. Ball plays with such high usage that it's hard to imagine what Charlotte's offense will look like without him. Brandon Miller or Tre Mann are capable of picking up more of the offense, but this team still lacks a necessary degree of physicality inside. Charlotte's 6-14 start has happened despite new head coach Charles Lee moving the defense from No. 29 to No. 15 at the beginning of this year. Charlotte has had so many high draft picks over the years that it would probably like to try to make the playoffs in the East, but the losses are already piling up with Ball now out of the lineup. The Hornets still have plenty of time to go on a run once Ball gets back, but his constant durability issues could push this team into the tank race once again.
NewOrleans Pelicans: The Pelicans get crushed by the injury bug every year, and it's happened again to an almost comical degree. Zion Williamson remains out indefinitely with a hamstring injury, and at this point it feels foolish to expect him to return to being a productive player any time soon. The Pelicans are finally getting some other guys healthy, with Dejounte Murray and Trey Murphy III each returning to the lineup after long injuries to start the year, and Brandon Ingram coming back soon. The Pelicans felt like they could have been a protected playoff team this year if things went right, but not never seems to happen. After a 4-17 start with the league's third hardest remaining schedule in the brutal Western Conference, New Orleans might just be too far back for Williamson's potential return to matter. This team can absolutely get into the mix for No. 1 overall.
Toronto Raptors: The Raptors actually have some happy vibes for a six-win. Gradey Dick is taking nice leap in his sophomore season, R.J. Barrett is having a career year, and even Jakob Poeltl is balling. With Scottie Barnes returning from injury and the East looking as pathetic as ever, you can talk yourself into the Raptors making a run for the play-in tournament. Poeltl's media day comment about not really trying to win this year is still sticking with me, though. Toronto really needs a future star to build around, and that makes tanking their best move. Trading Poeltl would immediately make this team soft inside, and unless Immanuel Quickley turns around his season in a dramatic fashion, this Raptors offense isn't going out-score teams regularly. The Raps seem like a team committed to the bit of tanking, and one more trade or extended injury absence will have them right in the Flagg mix.
The favorites
Utah Jazz: The Jazz are proving they can still blatantly tank despite signing Lauri Markkanen to a nearly $240 million extension before the season. Markkanen is having a down year by his standards, but the team around him is too young and too raw to be competitive in the West every night. Keyonte George is putting up numbers but his efficiency is horrid, rookie Cody Williams has been just about the worst player in the league thus far, and the defense is pathetic even with Walker Kessler having a bounce-back year. Head coach Will Hardy had this team looking competitive in the first half of the season the last two years, but Danny Ainge has traded away too many pieces. This team is downright bad and should head into the lottery tied for the top odds at Flagg.
Washington Wizards: The Wizards won their last two games of Oct., both against the Atlanta Hawks. They haven't won a game since. Washington went 0-for-November with their young draft picks playing big minutes and the veterans (Kyle Kuzma, Malcolm Brogdon, Jonas Valanciunas) all in-and-out of the lineup. Bilal Coulibaly has been a revelation in his second year, No. 2 overall pick Alex Sarr is blocking tons of shots, and fellow rookie Bub Carrington has had his moments of encouraging creation flashes. Still, this team is as far away from being competitive as any in the NBA. Washington will be right back in this position again next season ahead of a loaded 2026 lottery, but having Cooper Flagg on the roster sure would make another rebuilding year more tolerable.
