Can the 76ers tank for Cooper Flagg? Yes, but it won't be easy

11/21/2024 11:36 AM

Even tanking for Cooper Flagg would be a struggle for the Sixers because of an old trade.

The Philadelphia 76ers are supposed to be in the middle of their championship window. Instead, the Sixers own the worst record in the NBA after one month of play, sitting at 2-12 overall after another disastrous loss to the injury-ravaged Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday night. Everything that can go wrong has gone wrong for Philly this season, and it already has fans wondering if the team should throw in the towel and tank ahead of the loaded 2025 NBA Draft.

If the season ended today, the 76ers would enter the lottery tied for the league's best chances to land Duke super freshman Cooper Flagg with the No. 1 overall pick. Unfortunately for the Sixers, the season does not end today. Philly has played 17 percent of the schedule so far, and still has 68 games to go.

The 76ers are weeks, maybe even months away from making a decision on the direction of their season. If they do decide to tank, though, it's going to require a delicate high-wire act to keep their draft pick because of a trade made four years ago to dump a bad contract.

The 76ers owe their first-round pick in the 2025 NBA Draft to the Oklahoma City Thunder, but it's protected 1-6. Philly traded the pick in Nov. of 2020 to dump Al Horford's contract on the Thunder. That trade could come under immense scrutiny once again if the Sixers' season continues to go off the rails.

NBA Draft lottery odds for top-10

To ensure that their pick will not fall out of the top-6, the Sixers would have to finish this season as either the worst or second-worst team in the league. Here are the odds for the NBA draft lottery for teams picking in the top-10, using the current standings via Tankathon:

The Sixers would still have a 92.9 percent chance to keep the pick if they finish as the league's third worst teams. They would have an 81 percent chance to keep the pick if they finish as the fourth worst team. As the fifth worst team, the Sixers have a 63.9 percent chance to keep the pick. As the sixth worst team, there would be a 54.3 percent Philly loses the pick.

The Eastern Conference is the Sixers' saving grace

If the Sixers were in the Western Conference, their season would already feel over. In the East, a disastrous start is much easier to overcome.

The East is as bad as it's ever been. Despite being 2-12, Philly is only 3.5 games out of the final spot in the NBA play-in tournament. It's somehow only four games out of the No. 6 seed in the East, which would mean an automatic playoff berth.

As the season goes on, more teams at the bottom of the standings are going to choose to be in the tank race, potentially opening up some easier wins for the Sixers to get back in the playoff mix. The question is how bad it would have to get for Philly to decide to be one of those teams prioritizing draft position over a postseason trip.

The Sixers are in the middle of a season from hell

I ranked the Sixers as the sixth most likely team to win the 2025 NBA championship heading into the season. Obviously, that looks like a terrible projection right now.

A year ago at this time, Joel Embiid looked like he might be the best player in the world. After a 70-point game in Jan., Embiid had the highest point-per-minute average in league history, eclipsing Wilt Chamberlain. He had surgery on his left knee a couple weeks later, and the Sixers have essentially completely fallen apart ever since.

The Sixers were so transparent about their plan to rest Embiid during the season for "left knee management" that the league fined them $100K. Embiid finally made his season debut earlier this month, but he's looked miserable when he's actually played. The only silver lining of Wednesday's loss to the Grizzlies is that Embiid finally had a good scoring game, putting up 31 points in the loss.

Embiid wasn't supposed to have to carry the Sixers as much as he usually does this season. The team signed Paul George to a four-year max contract in free agency coming off an All-Star season with the Clippers. George suffered a knee injury in the preseason, and has also performed way below his typical level since returning to play. George exited Wednesday's game against the Grizzlies after hyperextending the same knee he injured in the preseason.

Tyrese Maxey is an ascendant young star in the backcourt for Philly. He shouldered an impossible load early in the season as Embiid and George were out, and then he eventually got hurt himself. Maxey went down with a hamstring injury in early Nov., and just made his return to the lineup. Hamstring injuries can linger, and he certainly did not look like his speedy self in his return vs. Memphis.

The Sixers' depth has looked just awful as their stars have been hampered by injuries. Philly is dead last in offensive efficiency by a mile right now. The team is shooting 31.7 percent from three, which ranks No. 29. There's a glaring inability to maintain an advantage throughout the roster. The offense typically dies after one drive-and-kick. Andre Drummond has struggled as the team's fill-in option at center, while Caleb Martin and Kelly Oubre have gotten off to rough starts as well.

What's wild is that Philly has the front-runner for Rookie of the Year right now. The Sixers drafted Jared McCain with the No. 20 overall pick, and he's been absolutely incredible thus far, averaging 15.6 points per game and shooting 41 percent from three. Would the Sixers be winless if they didn't draft McCain? The 20-year-old is doing his best to hold the team together right now, but he doesn't have much help.

The Sixers still have plenty of time and talent to make a run

It is of course still too early for the Sixers to think about tanking. If Embiid can return to his MVP level of play soon, the team has plenty of time to fight its way up the Eastern Conference standings.

The East has two heavyweights in the reigning champion Boston Celtics and the now 16-1 Cleveland Cavaliers. Beyond that, who is Philly really afraid of in a potential playoff series? The Knicks are solid but unspectacular thus far in their first season with Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges, and their defense is a huge question mark. The Orlando Magic have looked elite defensively, but the offense is struggling with Paolo Banchero, who remains out indefinitely. The Bucks would be the league's biggest disaster if it wasn't for the Sixers.

McCain's emergence gives the Sixers another key piece to make a run. It still comes down to Embiid and Maxey getting healthy and playing at their best level, and then George overcoming this knee injury. Could Philly trade George mid-season if their play doesn't turn around? It's hard to think of a team that would want him as he's owed more than $50 million per season for the next three years after this one. George turns 35 years old in May.

Going after Cooper Flagg is just so risky for the Sixers

Cooper Flagg is a franchise-changing No. 1 overall pick. Every bad team wants him, and only one of them is going to get him. Read my feature on the people who helped turn Flagg into the league's next super prospect.

The Sixers might not actually have a choice to tank or not. They're trying to win right now, but they can't do it. If Embiid is beat up all year or becomes sidelined again, Philly has no chance. George's injury issues don't seem like they are going to go away any time soon. It's only Nov., but it's not a stretch to say Philly's season is slipping away.

The fact that the Sixers traded their 2025 draft pick to move off Horford only makes the deal more painful. The Thunder eventually traded Horford to Philly's biggest rival, the Boston Celtics, and he played a key role in the team winning the 2024 NBA championship.

The Sixers invented modern tanking with "The Process" that led to drafting Embiid. A decade later, they're looking at one of the most precarious draft situations in recent history with a purported championship contender struggling, and their draft pick only protected in the top-6.