Willson Contreras is being moved to 1B

11/07/2024 09:00 AM

What are the implications of that?

The Cardinals had something of a unique problem entering the 2025 season. They had Willson Contreras under contract for 3 years, $59.5 million with a fourth-year club option (the buyout is factored into that 3-year price). They had Ivan Herrera, out of options and with a 127 wRC+, entering his age 25 season. And lastly, Pedro Pages, who the club clearly prefers defensively over Herrera. How do you keep all three on the MLB roster?

We have our answer. It's not to trade one of them. It's to play Willson Contreras at 1B. Among first basemen, Contreras' 140 wRC+ would have been the 3rd best in baseball, behind just Vladmir Guerrero Jr. and Bryce Harper. Yes, he had a better hitting line than Freddie Freeman last season. His bat absolutely plays at 1B.

If you go back three years, Willson Contreras has a combined 133 wRC+, which matches Matt Olson's bat the past three seasons. Olson is one of just five 1B with a 133 wRC+ or better among qualified 1B over the past three years. Contreras can even decline with the bat and still match his new brethren. Just nine 1B since 2022 have been better than Contreras' career 121 wRC+. If his bat doesn't fall off a cliff and there's not really any reason to think it would yet, Contreras would be a top 10 hitting 1B in baseball.

"Tell em Wash"

"It's incredibly hard."

Despite it's popularity, I've never actually particularly liked this line in Moneyball, because as far as difficulties in baseball, moving to 1B is definitely not among the harder things in baseball. And while I have softened in that thought when watching Jose Martinez stand at first, I still don't really think this is going to be a difficult thing for a catcher. (Which is relevant because the quote was said to a catcher)

The biggest concern over someone playing 1B for first time (which isn't true of Contreras) is elements that are unique to 1B. These elements wouldn't seem to be a problem for a catcher, who is used to fielding throws in the dirt and would typically be flexible enough to stretch and stay on a base. First basemen also are at first because they don't have a ton of range, so the standard isn't that high.

Look at Scott Hatterberg, the player Ron Washington is talking to in Moneyball. He was an average fielding 1B by UZR. Buster Posey, who had to play a decent amount of 1B late in his career, was an average fielding 1B. Joe Mauer, forced off the position due to injury, was an elite defending 1B. Any typical obstruction a catcher might typically face to playing at 1B doesn't seem to apply to Contreras. Contreras isn't slow moving or too big in weight. While he doesn't have a long history of playing 1B, I don't see any issues with the transition.

This transition helps with two positions: catcher and first. I wouldn't go as far as to say Contreras moving to 1B makes the Cardinals catching situation better, but the Cardinals have more viable starting options at catcher than 1B. A Ivan Herrera/Pedro Pages duo is, if not a strong duo, the kind of duo you want a rebuilding team to have. And it may very well be a strong duo. A 25-year-old with a history of hitting the ball and a 26-year-old with a high defensive reputation that hasn't necessarily materialized at the MLB level quite yet. At least statistically.

I seem to reflexively push back on what the majority of the fanbase thinks of a certain player and that certainly applies to Pedro Pages. If you are using 2024 stats to say Pages doesn't deserve to play that much, you are putting too much faith in small sample size defensive stats. The scouting report and the defensive numbers we do have in his minor league history strongly suggest he is an elite defensive catcher. That may not end up being true, but there's no reason to take his 2024 stats at face value.

Meanwhile, you should also probably not assume Ivan Herrera is actually a 127 wRC+ hitter. He is not a true talent .370 BABIP hitter. Some of this could be offset by more power. He did have a higher xwOBA than wOBA but I am almost positive that is related to a lower HR/FB% than maybe "deserved." He actually had six "expected" home runs at Busch and at all but a handful of stadiums it was 6-8 home runs. That said, a roughly 50 or more drop in BABIP is going to matter more. 40 speed catchers do not run high BABIPs.

Having said all that, Hererra is clearly a good hitter for a catcher at the very least. His defense, primarily his ability to throw out runners, is probably never going to be a strength, but he's still just going to be 25 so there is room for improvement and a hope that he will get better. While Contreras could throw out runners, there's less reason to believe his defense will get better.

In the long run of the organization, it seems to delay decisions the Cardinals brass will at some point have to make. The Cardinals are very deep at catcher organizationally. Ivan Herrera, entering 2025, has five years of team control. Pedro Pages has six. Soon behind them is Jimmy Crooks, who could use a year of AAA seasoning and I'm not sure you could justify spending more than two years in AAA. Unless AAA proves to be his downfall, which is always possible.

After him is Leonardo Bernal, who has reached AA and is safely two years away at the least. Past that point, you can't assume anything. Even still, there's still Sammy Hernandez in High A. You don't have to be good at math to see how at some point, players have to be moved. It could be Pages or Herrera or it could be a prospect, but someone will need to be traded at some point.

But that's a problem for the future. We all know not all prospects work out. It seems unlikely that all three of these prospects fail in one way or another, but certainly all of them aren't going to develop as hoped. Since the Cardinals are in the development business, it makes sense to wait and see.

Now, the way I'm taking this news, I did not actually interpret this as Contreras being the full-time 1B. I still think we will see some Alec Burleson at 1B. Contreras will surely start against every left-handed pitcher the Cardinals face at 1B. But he'll still DH some. He may even catch a few games. I imagine he becomes the backup catcher if Herrera or Pages get hurt.

I think this is a smart plan. It reduces the burden on Burleson being a good enough hitter to man 1B. It gives more opportunities for two young catchers who need it. It gives the Cardinals more PAs from their best hitter while reducing his injury risk. And it jumpstarts what would have been the awkward part of the Contreras contract where we really don't need him to catch anymore, but still want his bat.

It does also contribute to the idea that Nolan Arenado might be on the way out. Arenado was suspiciously not mentioned by Derrick Goold as someone who told John Mozeliak he wanted to stay. And if you work out where everybody would be stationed on the current roster, there's not really a spot for Nolan Gorman. Oh he'll still get his PAs, because it literally just takes one injury and he can play and you can get 400-500 PAs easy with that. And it's not the worst thing in the world if he has to start the year in AAA either. Nonetheless, something worth monitoring.