Thomas Saggese is your #4 prospect

01/02/2025 09:00 AM

Also vote on the fifth prospect here!

The vote ended up more lopsided than I expected, although all but one player got at least 5% of the vote and every player got at least 15 votes. But Thomas Saggese is your winner and fairly easily. Proximity means a great deal to the voting bloc, and understandably so given the success rate of a typical prospect. That leaves the current list at:

1. JJ Wetherholt
2. Quinn Mathews
3. Tink Hence
4. Thomas Saggese

Comparable Player Corner

Somewhat unexpectedly, from my viewpoint and I imagine most fans, national publications have fallen in love with a couple Dominican Summer League prospects. If you had to make a top prospect list in 1984 as a fan, I imagine just about every prospect was like a DSL prospect: almost no video, relying almost entirely on what other people are saying about them, and stats that only tell you so much.

So this has put me in a pickle, because I have to pay attention to the fact that Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America are high on a couple teenagers who are optimistically five years away from the big leagues. Faraway prospects have not typically been given a lot of love here, so it's possible these DSL guys will stay in the voting for a while. What I like about this particular comparable player corner is I can basically know exactly in what order to add three separate guys who I would really have no idea when to add: these two and Sammy Hernandez who lost the head to head vote last week. So that's nice. Your candidates.

Yairo Padilla, 18-year-old who had a 121 wRC+ playing as the youngest 17-year-old possible. If his birthday - which is June 28th - was a week later, last year would have been considered his age 16 season. He has relatively promising offensive stats, but he's one of those players where you kind of have to take the word of scouts, who seem to really love him.

Rainiel Rodriguez, 18-year-old who had a 186 wRC+ in the DSL at the age of 17. He walked more than he struck out and hit 10 homers in 41 games. As good as that all is, I would expect him to spend nearly all of 2025 in the complex rookie league.

New players

Last week, I made my job easier by simply taking the remaining highest ranked players on last year's list and putting them on the vote. Hate to be lazy again, but I'm doing that this week too. Last week's #10 prospect, Sem Robberse, didn't have a year that would make you more positive or more negative on him (statistically speaking anyway), so he clearly belongs on the voting this deep in. And #11 prospect Won Bin-Cho definitely had a down year, but he's still young and seems like a future fan favorite if he works out, so I feel like he'll still do pretty good in the voting.

Leonardo Bernal, C - 21

LYR: #13

Stats (High A): 96 G, 382 PAs, .270/.343/.419, 9.7 BB%, 22.8 K%, .150 ISO, .333 BABIP, 120 wRC+, 110 DRC+

AA: 14 G, 55 PAs, .204/.291/.286, 10.9 BB%, 16.4 K%, .082 ISO, .231 BABIP, 68 wRC+, 101 DRC+

AFL: 13 G, 51 PAs, .304/.373/.391, 9.8 BB%, 17.6 K%, .087 ISO, .361 BABIP

BP: A 20-year-old catcher who hits from both sides of the plate and has an assortment of well-rounded useful offensive abilities projects to be a starter more often than not."

AFL stats = slightly below average given the run environment. Bernal strikes me as the type of player who is going to get prospect fatigue sooner or later. He's been a prospect for a few years now, his stats are good but don't jump out at you, and most of why he's a prospect is that his success has come while being quite young at each level. The way he can avoid that is by having an absolutely monster year in AA.

Won-Bin Cho, OF - 21

LYR: #11

Stats (High A): 107 G, 428 PAs, .227/.307/.305, 8.4 BB%, 31.3 K%, .078 ISO, .343 BABIP, 81 wRC+, 74 DRC+

BP: "Cho profiles favorably in the field, a solid corner outfield defender thanks to above-average speed and adequate reads, but is likely stretched in center field."

As bad as his 2024 went, the fact is that Cho is still going to be just 21-years-old in High A. I'm not surprised at the lack of power in Peoria - that was the one thing preventing me from embracing him - but it is surprising how much his K/BB numbers collapsed. Hopefully, a year of experience will get him back on track.

Jimmy Crooks III, C - 23

LYR: #16

Stats (AA): 90 G, 371 PAs, .321/.410/.498, 11.6 BB%, 21 K%, .178 ISO, .390 BABIP, 156 wRC+, 124 DRC+

BP: "Defensively, Crooks has the traditional markers of catcherdom: a stout, sturdy frame and an above-average arm, which he used to throw out 33% of opposing baserunners. He should be a solid enough framer and overall receiver to stick behind the dish."

To give you an outline of how Crooks' season went, in the first half, he was very BABIP heavy with not as much power as you'd like. Most of his power actually came in the 2nd half of his season. From June 30th to the end of the year, he hit 9 of his 10 homers and had a .259 ISO. Typically what you want to see is a player improving as the season goes on and Crooks fits that bill.

Chase Davis, OF - 23

LYR: #8

Stats (Low A): 34 G, 131 PAs, .232/.337/.401, 12.7 BB%, 25.1 K%, .169 ISO, .293 BABIP, 111 wRC+, 114 DRC+

High A: 74 G, 315 PAs, .301/.388/.451, 10.1 BB%, 25.1 K%, .150 ISO, .383 BABIP, 144 wRC+, 103 DRC+

AA: 8 G, 31 PAs, .250/.323/.429, 9.7 BB%, 16.1 K%, .179 ISO, .273 BABIP, 103 wRC+, 99 DRC+

BP: "Davis has, at individual times over the last two years, flashed every tool and skill needed for a star outcome. He just hasn't shown them consistently as a pro."

It took Davis an annoyingly long time to get to High A, but a remarkably short amount of time to get to AA, which leaves one in the position of being potentially confused as to how to judge him. That said, it's easy to talk yourself into him because there's an easy narrative at play: working on a swing change, he struggled, but things clicked at some point.

Cooper Hjerpe, LHP - 24

LYR: #7

Stats (High A): 11 GS, 37.2 IP, 35.2 K%, 12.6 BB%, 50.6 GB%, .297 BABIP, 3.35 ERA/3.57 FIP/3.38 xFIP/3.78 DRA

AA: 4 GS, 14.2 IP, 35.1 K%, 14 BB%, 24.1 GB%, .207 BABIP, 3.07 ERA/2.23 FIP/3.63 xFIP/4.76 DRA

BP: "That Sale-ish weirdo delivery gives Hjerpe a lot of the same positives as Sale, although nowhere near as pronounced and with some concerns attached.... He does not yet possess anything close to Sale's ability to spot the ball around the strike zone, and his command and control remain spotty."

The book on Hjerpe is very similar to the book on him when he was initially drafted. The things that have changed is that he's performed about as good as one would hope. And also, the injury and relief risk seem more "real" now that we've actually seen him struggle to stay healthy two years in a row.

Michael McGreevy, RHP - 24

LYR: #9

Stats (AAA): 27 GS, 150 IP, 21.6 K%, 6.9 BB%, 49 GB%, .314 BABIP, 4.02 ERA/3.86 FIP/4.17 xFIP/4.66 DRA

BP: "He throws basically every offspeed imaginable—something in the gyro slider/cutter range, sweeping slider, change, overhand curve, he's got them all—and the sweeping slider is the best now, but we're not talking an obvious plus offering, either."

McGreevy is possibly the best representation of do you trust the scouting report or do you trust the stats? Which is simplifying it a little bit too much - the scouts do agree he has pinpoint control and an assortment of pitches that could work, it'll just be very difficult. On the flip side, it's not like the stats are a super reliable thing we can bank on either. These are prospects after all with minimal time in the MLB.

Sem Robberse, RHP - 22

LYR: #10

Stats (AAA): 16 G (14 GS), 84.1 IP, 21.8 K%, 7.8 BB%, 44 GB%, .273 BABIP, 4.59 ERA/4.77 FIP/4.61 xFIP/5.25 DRA

BP: Robberse at least has some whiffier offerings in his sweeper and hard changeup—which is only four mph off his fastball—and his cutterish slider has utility too, so of this group he might have the most relief conversion potential.

If you were wondering, the league average ERA in the International League is 4.83. Theoretically, that is the bar to judge all of his stats by, not just ERA. That's at least how those stats are supposed to be tailored anyway. So he effectively was roughly around league average as a starter last season.

Tekoah Roby, RHP - 23

LYR: #4

Stats (AA): 7 GS, 33.1 IP, 21.4 K%, 7.8 BB%, 37.4 GB%, 6.75 ERA/6.59 FIP/4.19 xFIP/5.47 DRA

BP: "Roby is a stuff-model darling. The problem is that Roby just can't stay healthy, and even when he pitched this year his stuff wasn't as sharp and he got tattooed."

I mean I could literally not say it better than BP. What's funny is you'd think Tink Hence had Roby's year with how much people are certain Hence can't handle a full workload. The stats don't bother me as much, because 2024 was basically a lost year. If you look at his game log, his first four starts were good, albeit with a homer problem. He had a 28.4 K% and 4.9 BB%. Then he got tagged for 6 ER twice in 3 starts and 10 Ks to 8 BBs in that span. So he was probably pitching hurt. The injury problems are definitely real, I am legit ignoring his stats though.