The Cardinals weird offseason

11/25/2024 09:00 AM

This post is probably not for Michael Siani fans

In my memory writing for this site and probably in the years before writing for this site, I have entered every offseason with a clear set of needs or desires. When Yadier Molina retired, that offseason was focused on catching. Last year, the focus was on getting three starters. Even though they ignored the pitching problem, the 2022 team was about getting another starter. I could actually fall back on a free agent profile of a starter when I was searching for something to write for last five years or so.

Well, this offseason is more difficult in that respect. I don't have a position I think the Cardinals should or will get. What's the point of writing a free agent profile of a player the Cardinals are never going to get? I feel like I addressed the one thing the Cardinals actually might get or at least should get, which is a right-handed outfielder to pair with Michael Siani. That's pretty much it.

I'm going to be annoying here and compare the Cardinals situation with a game I play and have referenced in the past, which is Out of the Park Baseball. When I play OOTP, I pick the "worst" organization. For the most recent iteration, I actually picked the Athletics, not the White Sox, because on paper at least, the White Sox were not supposed to be this bad. So I like rebuilding and almost starting from scratch.

When I do this, my goal is not to win games. My sole goal for at least a couple seasons is to look at each position, and have someone playing there who could be the future. They don't have to be the future. That's too high of a bar given the state of the teams I pick. They just need to possibly be the future. 'I don't know if things will work out, but they might." And that's enough in the first stages of building an organization from the ground up.

If that's not possible, my preferred alternative is to find a player who I can deal for prospects. Sometimes, they are already in the organization. To stay with my Athletics example, in my first year, I traded Ross Stripling, Alex Wood, Brent Rooker, and Trevor Gott. I mostly didn't get anything back of value - Rooker did not actually have a good 2024 in my game's reality - but their presence on the roster at least contributed to my future potentially. Which again is my main goal when I start the game - I just want to see potential on the roster.

What I didn't like was having pure placeholders on the roster. Players that weren't apart of my future and I couldn't trade, but I needed to fill out a lineup card. Just waiting until I can acquire a player who can push them out. Whether that be via a prospect who is finally ready or a waiver wire pickup or even a free agent signing.

To return to the Cardinals and why it's difficult to write offseason posts on any kind of moves, they more or less fulfill both of my preferences. Look up and down the roster. There's potential or trade pieces. There aren't really place holders on the roster. With one exception and it might be a hot take. But I'll keep you in suspense on who I consider a placeholder for later.

The offense is filled with at least potential. I would be very satisfied as a rebuilding team with the Cardinals offense. I don't know if I'm winning with this roster, but I can look up and down the lineup and see players who could be a part of my next winning team. I'm not replacing these guys. I'm seeing if that potential is realized. Technically, if I'm as desperate as the Athletics, I am actually trading Lars Nootbaar and Brendan Donovan, who probably wouldn't be a part of my next winning team because they are only under contract for three years. And I can't pay those guys either. But I digress.

At catcher, the Cardinals are a rebuilding team's dream. They have two young catchers with tons of team control. They have three interesting prospects close behind. They have a potential perennial All-Star at shortstop in Masyn Winn. If Nolan Arenado is traded, I'd be pretty satisfied with my 2B and 3B situation, with essentially three guys taking the playing time who could be part of the future. Jordan Walker is a very good example of a player I am looking for on a start from scratch rebuild.

From the "trade value" aspect of the team, you have the starting pitchers. Erick Fedde can be traded and may be traded before the season even starts. Both Steven Matz and arguably Miles Mikolas can be traded by the deadline if things break right for them. Depends on how pitching desperate a playoff team might be. Sonny Gray, if he wants to stay, not so much, but the Cardinals will be good a lot sooner than my 2024 Oakland Athletics.

And if you haven't pieced together who I consider a placeholder and I don't mean this in as negative of a way as intended, it's Michael Siani. Apparently my role this offseason is to throw cold water on Siani believers. You all know my stance on Victor Scott. I was an early, early skeptic of him when the prospect rankings were voted on. I think Scott has a better shot of being a good player than Siani does.

I don't know how people are high on his bat, I'm going to be honest. I cannot talk myself into him being even an 80 wRC+ hitter. He didn't walk, struck out a lot, and had no power, and in addition, his batted ball metrics suggest he should have had an even worse line and he had a 64 wRC+! Where is this upside people seem to think he has?

I know people are going to quote stats at me, but it's all BABIP related. And as mentioned above, he had very bad batted ball metrics. He had a .322 BABIP last year. I think his BABIP is probably worse than that. I know he's fast. Speed does not actually correlate with BABIP. Pitcher List looked into it in 2019. "While there's some correlation, sprint speed is less influential over BABIP than most batted ball data, Pull% (for both righties and lefties), and four xStats."

The weird thing is that I am a proponent of making Michael Siani the starting CFer (against RHP) while putting Scott in AAA. I just happen to think he's a placeholder, maybe for Scott, maybe for Chase Davis, maybe for someone the Cardinals trade for. And if Siani's defense holds - and he does have quite a high bar to maintain with how bad he appears to be as a hitter - then he's a great bench player.

My post is kind of all over the place, but I suppose my message is that the offseason is not providing me (or the other writers) with much to speculate about. Moves will be made, but until then.... we're just kind of stalling.