Split is the word in a four-game series against the Reds - A Series Preview

06/27/2024 09:00 AM

Reds are a poor offense, good pitching type of team

Full disclosure: I am currently on vacation. I am writing this from the past. Technically I am always writing from the past when you read this, but I'm writing this while watching the Cardinals face the Giants on Saturday. So really the past. I do not have updated stats, hopefully Heather can update them in my absence, but if they don't match the current stats, that's why (Hello, Heather here, writing from the present — well still technically the past, but less so than when Gabe wrote this. Now if the stats are wrong, it is simply because I am an idiot and no other reason.*) They are currently losing, hopefully they are winning by the time I finish this. (Ask and he shall receive apparently because they did win on Saturday 9-4.)

*I changed my mind: in my defense, it is nearly 2:00 am on Thursday morning as I go over this — that also might be the reason for any mistakes. I am not letting my idiocy take full blame this time.

There's not a whole lot that can change in four games, but I suppose someone can go on an extreme cold streak or extreme hot streak (The Cardinals have won 4 of their last 5 games, so that is nice. The Reds have lost 4 of their last 5, so that is nice.), and suddenly their season line looks different. I'll try to avoid specific stats (with the exception of the starters). The Reds are like every team in the NL Central not named the Brewers. With one exception: they are the only non-Brewers team with a positive run differential (which could easily change by Thursday, hence my disclaimers) (Turns out this is still true, but barely. The Reds have scored 337 runs, while allowing 326.)

The Reds have been a poor offensive team to date. Again to date being June 22nd. Heather correct me if I'm wrong. As a team, they have an 88 wRC+, which ranks 26th in baseball. (Correcting you if you're wrong: the team wRC+ is now 90, but that still ranks 26th in baseball). Their best hitter, interestingly, has been Jeimer Candelario. Which was sure not the case when we last faced the Reds. He has a 175 wRC+ since then in fact. That explains that. (On the season he has a 111 wRC+ and his wRC+ since the Cardinals and Reds last played has dropped from the 175 Gabe mentioned to 147. In the games since Gabe wrote this, which has only been 4 games, to be clear, Canelario has a -47 wRC+.) Elly de la Cruz is the only other hitter clearly above average on this team right now. (Jonathan India and Spencer Steer are both technically above average hitters with a wRC+ above 100, but we know what he meant.)

The Reds have quite a few starters hovering around league average with the bat: Spencer Steer, Tyler Stephenson, Jonathan India, and TJ Friedl. Jake Fraley and Will Benson have both been pretty big disappointments - Fraley should probably be an above average hitter, Benson might strike out too much to be one. Santiago Espinal has been a very, very bad hitter with a 55 wRC+ but the apparent infield depth the Reds had has been decimated and he still starts regularly. The Reds actually have three catchers on their roster so they don't have much of a bench either.

Cincy's bullpen has been excellent unfortunately. They have the fourth highest fWAR (still true) while pitching the 18th fewest innings (now 15th fewest). Again as of this date. We all understand my limitations with this preview right? I can stop saying that. (Yes.) Alexis Diaz has been bad, but is still their closer which is interesting since the bullpen appears good. He's only blown 2 saves though.

We all saw how unhittable Fernando Cruz can be. Somehow he has a 40.6 K% (41.3% now) but a 3.48 (3.89) ERA (probably a little related to that 12.6% walk rate). Sam Moll has a 1.65 (1.56) ERA, but only strikes out 22% (23.1%) of batters and has not allowed a homer, so it's definitely fluky. Buck Farmer is another pitcher with an extremely fluky ERA. He only strikes out 18% of batters and walks a decent amount. Brent Suter is Brent Suter, we've seen him a lot, still doing his thing. Lucas Sims has been hit hard by the home run bug. I have no idea how this bullpen ranks 4th in fWAR actually, must be because they play in Great American Ballpark.

Thursday - 6:45 PM

Frankie Montas (4.48 ERA/4.52 FIP/4.50 xFIP) vs. Miles Mikolas (4.68 ERA/4.05 FIP/4.01 xFIP 4.06/4.02)

Mikolas good run of starts ended with his most recent start, although I think he was somewhat frazzled by how his start began, with three weak hits leading to a run to 1st and 3rd, and then a stolen base soon after. But considering he gave up 3 after 1, lasting six innings with just one more earned run was a positive result.

I'm guessing the Reds were hoping for better when they signed sign Montas to a 1 year, $16 million deal. He's just not missing bats this year.

Friday - 7:15 PM

Nick Lodolo (2.762.96 ERA/3.34 3.61 FIP/3.53 3.71 xFIP) vs. Sonny Gray (2.813.112.602.75

2.95 2.81 ERA/2.58 2.60 FIP/2.76 2.75 xFIP)

Gray is certainly facing off some heavy hitters lately. That's the job of an ace though, to face other aces. And Lodolo is a tough pitcher. The Cardinals did okay against him last time. While he allowed one earned run over 5.1 IP, he only struck out 3. He has a career 28 K% so he can miss bats.

Saturday - 1:15 PM

Carson Spiers 3.453.402.324.02 (3.20 3.45 ERA/2.39 3.24.0 FIP/4.09 4.02 xFIP) vs. Lance Lynn (4.08 3.86 ERA/4.08 4.05 FIP/4.10 4.02 xFIP)

For some reason, Spiers is not listed as the starter on Saturday on ESPN, but I don't see why he wouldn't start. He has a start on Sunday - this past Sunday - and it's possible that start goes so badly, the Reds change plans, but it seems like he's in line to start, he has good stats, I can't see one start changing that.

Spiers hasn't missed many bats, but he has not walked anybody either. Not literally, but he has a low BB rate. He also hasn't allowed any homers through 25 innings (now over 31 innings)and he's not really a groundball pitcher so sounds like he's due to allow some home runs.

Sunday - 1:15 PM

Hunter Greene 3.793.273.814.23

(3.35 3.79 ERA/3.73 3.81 FIP/4.20 4.23 xFIP) vs. Kyle Gibson (3.44 3.70 ERA/4.14 4.18 FIP/3.95 4.04xFIP)3.704.184.04

Greene has been a good pitcher, but hasn't quite taken that step into being an ace yet. But he does miss a ton of bats and is perfectly capable of just dominating an offense. We certainly know the Cards are definitely capable of getting shut down.

As one might expect from a team with a positive run differential and poor offense, all four pitchers for the Reds appear pretty solid. Not so good that the Cardinals can hit off them (though Lodolo is pretty close), but definitely in an area where I don't blame the Cards' offense if they can't hit. That is not always the case. Everything about this series seems like a split to me.