Some notes and confusion

Today at 09:00 AM

I'm a little confused at the fanbase.

I got to get something off my chest. I feel like I should have made a bigger deal about this during the season - I've certainly mentioned this before - but I'm not really the type of writer who will talk about coaches, because we don't really know what goes on behind the scenes or even how impactful they are. But can someone please explain to me why exactly the fanbase has reacted in such a wildly different way to Turner Ward when compared to Jeff Albert, especially given the on-field results.

There have mostly not been complaints about Ward, or at least quiet complaints. In fact, the extent of complaints - and I don't visit every corner of the internet for my Cardinals information - I've seen on this blog. That is, to my memory, the only time I've seen people complain about Turner Ward. I know people have complained about him that I haven't seen, but I tell you I think I heard people complain about Jeff Albert every single day when they had a top 5 offense. It was everywhere and it was truly, comically absurd.

Meanwhile, multiple young hitters have had setbacks or at least progressed the way we hoped, and nary a peep. And also the Cardinals' offense has a whole has massively disappointed for two years running. I don't know that this is Turner Ward's fault. You don't know that this is his fault. But if ever there was a time for a fanbase to complain about a hitting coach, this was it!

I guess my best theory is that the people who complained about Albert were very against the advanced stat stuff and he represented that and they dug their heels in too much and now they can't really complain about a perceived old-school hitting coach. (I don't know that he's old school, but that might be the perception). Meanwhile, the type of people who didn't complain about Albert, but want to move on from Ward, just aren't the type of fans to be vocal about getting a hitting coach fired.

To be clear, I vastly prefer this year's approach to hitting (and pitching) coaches, it just makes the Jeff Albert situation all the more confusing to me. He became a scapegoat, the Cardinals offense improved, he remained a scapegoat.

ANYWAY, here's one note on every returning player that I can find something to say about:

Masyn Winn

Winn's potential is so much greater than what he showed in 2024

Okay, I might be saying something obvious, but I was looking at his 2024 stats and did two things: looked at his improvement from last year and then what he can do next year realistically. And he improved from 2023 in just about every way: strikeouts, BABIP, doubled his power, improved his contact quality. The only thing that wasn't better was walks, but it's not a large difference and offset by less strikeouts anyway. In fact, if you consider K/BBs to be a package deal, he probably improved overall despite less walks because the difference in K rate was greater than the difference in BB rate.

So how can he realistically make more strides in what will be his age 23 season? Well, one is obvious. I think we can all agree he has better defense in his future (if you use OAA for defensive stats anyway). He was a +3 OAA defender at SS in 2024. There's more in the tank. Also, if his 2nd half power surge is at all what to expect going forward, he has more power in his future too. His 2nd half ISO is .163 in comparison to .122 in the first half. He hit 5 homers in the 1st half, and 9 in the 2nd half and he did that in about 75 less plate appearances.

Those two seem like very reasonable things to think might happen. More optimistic than even that are two other improvements I think he can make: I think he could have a higher BB rate in his future - ZiPS only has a 6.9 BB% projection, but he did walk 12% of the time in AA, so his full potential certainly has more walks. And better contact quality. Just because we saw it with Dylan Carlson doesn't mean Winn is always going to hit the ball weakly.

By the way, he's already a 3+ fWAR player, I mean truly the sky's the limit on Winn.

Alec Burleson

A platooned Burleson at 1B is so much better without any improvements offensively.

Part of the reason I think the Cardinals need to let Paul Goldschmidt go is I think a Burleson/right-handed bat is worth a full season trial. Burleson got waaaay too many plate appearances against left-handed pitchers and it seriously affected his season numbers. Against right-handed pitchers, he is a 125 wRC+ hitter.

As far as defense, based on positional adjustment, the move from corner outfield to 1B is a difference of 5 runs. In 1,000 innings - which is about 200 innings less than a full season of innings - Burleson has been -12 runs below average at either RF or LF. Basically, in order for him to become a more valuable player at 1B, he only needs to manage a -8 or so. And I think he'd probably be about average, so we're talking at least half a win improvement here just by moving to 1B. And if he's average or better defensively - which I actually think he's capable of - it's closer to a full win. Throw in batting exclusively against RHP (or close to it) and without any improvements whatsoever to his game, Burleson is likely a 2 WAR player in less than 500 PAs.

Nolan Arenado

Arenado's defense came back, which means the back half of his contract has a high floor

So did any of you notice that Arenado's defense is back? Not to his peak, but he's +8 OAA, which is better than last year. And I'm reminded that elite defending 3B age pretty well. Scott Rolen's defense stayed elite until his very last season (when he a little below average). Adrian Beltre was elite until the end. Brooks Robinson was still a fantastic fielder at 38. I'm not sure 3B has the same age-related risks that other positions do?

Here's a weird thought. The typical risk with Arenado's hitting profile might be to his benefit? Like a contact happy Arenado who manages at least a +5 defensively at 3B has a really high floor. Not quite the same, but think Yadier Molina in his last years, but not his very last year.

Brendan Donovan

Brendan Donovan is quietly having a career year

It doesn't really feel like a career year because he hit quite a bit better in his rookie season, but he also wasn't contributing much defensively (ironically, given his Gold Glove win) and got a lot less plate appearances. This year, he's going to approach 650 plate appearances and has been more deserving of a utility Gold Glove, being +4 at 2B in 382 innings and +2 in LF in 803 innings, while playing a few more innings at 3B at an average rate. That's all, Brendan Donovan appreciation note.

Andre Pallante

Pallante needs to be in the 2025 rotation

Everybody in the current rotation not named Pallante leaves after next season (if not before) except for Sonny Gray whose contract ends the year after. Basically, the Cardinals have a lot of rotation spots to fill in 2026 and it'd sure be nice if one of those spots went to Pallante. If he repeats what he did in 2024 - which he should be given a chance to do - that's one less spot to worry about.

JoJo Romero

Romero should maybe be the three-batter minimum version of a LOOGY

I swear Romero's numbers against right-handed batters wasn't this bad in the 1st half, but he's going to end the season with just atrocious numbers against RHB and elite ones against lefties. He struck out 32.1% of lefties in 2024. It was just 15.8% of right-handed batters. He walked both at the same rate. He was also an extreme groundball pitcher against LHB, just 45.5% against RHB. Someone, maybe me, should look into if something changed, what happened with Romero against RHB.

Ryan Fernandez

Ryan Fernandez shouldn't face many left-handed batters

Not really a surprise for a fastball-slider pitcher, but Fernandez has concerning advanced stats when facing left-handed batters. His wOBA against LHP is .297, but he only strikes out 22.1% and walks 12.5% of them. He also turns into an extreme flyball pitcher with 44.6% of balls in play in the air, although 10.3% of those are infield flys to be fair. Meanwhile, against right-handed batters, he strikes out more, walks less and is a groundball pitcher (50 GB%). He actually had a 4.73 FIP and 4.94 xFIP against LHP, but a .254 BABIP helped him out. Agianst RHB, it was 2.65 FIP and 3.34 xFIP.

Lars Nootbaar

This fanbase underrates Lars Nootbaar

Amidst this statistical revolution of sorts where even casual fans are cognizant of recognizing some advanced stats, it is clear most fans.... don't really value walks. They may say they do, but then call Lars Nootbaar a 4th outfielder. If you think he's having a bad season, he's not. He's having a dead average season, which is disappointing given expectations, but he's still a starting caliber outfielder easily. His batted ball metrics suggest he should have a much better hitting line than he does. His wOBA is .323 and his xwOBA is .354.

It is frustrating he hasn't reached that next level, but he would probably be my least surprising "All-Star breakout season" of all Cardinals and that'll probably be true through his entire Cardinals tenure. But if not, he's good enough that he'll be one of the three best outfielders on the team until he reaches free agency.

I don't want to steal too many potential offseason posts in this, so I'll leave my notes at that.