Searching for a right-handed outfielder in a trade

11/18/2024 09:00 AM

I had some difficulty finding names that fit

Last week, the podcast received a question I was simply not informed enough to answer, which is "which right-handed outfielder do you see the Cardinals trading for?" I thought I'd do a little research and try to answer that question here. I looked at all 30 teams, tried to guess who might be available, how much they would cost, and if the interests of the Cardinals and the other team could align to make a deal work.

This was harder than I expected. Here's the problem. The Cardinals are not going for it in 2025. Anybody remotely good would cost prospects the Cardinals probably aren't interested in trading, and rightfully so, quite frankly. Anybody with one year either isn't very good or wouldn't make sense to get given the 2025 goals. And anybody with actual team control years are players other teams aren't interested in trading.

So, I found dirt cheap, almost value-less right-handed outfielders that the Cardinals could trade for with minimal demand. They are bordering on DFA candidates to be honest. But before I give you those names, I'll give you some MLB OFers who make sense in theory, but I can't see it realistically working out in the real word.

Improvement to MLB squad

Luis Robert Jr.

1 year, $15 million with two $20 million club options ($2 million buyout)

Why not? Well, for starters, it doesn't actually make sense for the White Sox to trade him. Not even a little bit. He's coming off a career worst season and by far. He's going to be 27 next year and he has three years to rebuild his value. Unless you think he's permanently broken, I'm waiting for a bounceback year before trading him. He's young, I spend money on almost nobody else, and this past year looks like a complete anomaly. Can I get something decent if I trade him? Probably. Will it improve if he's having another 5 WAR season? Absolutely. Any teams inquiring, I'll tell them to call back at the deadline unless you want to pay me like he's a 4 WAR OFer right now.

Brent Rooker

Estimated $5.1 million, 3 years of team control

Why not? I'm making an extreme comparison here, but it'd be kind of like trading for Marcell Ozuna when the Cardinals did. Rooker is not actually a 5 WAR player. He just had a career year. He had a .362 BABIP. He provides virtually no value on defense. The Cardinals really don't need another no defense guy. I know the other no defense guys can't hit like Rooker can. I would just be very afraid of buying this guy. He was a 126 wRC+ hitter in 2023... and was worth 2.1 fWAR. He's already 30. The Athletics should trade him, but if he's not traded this offseason, then you know every team in baseball agrees with me. His probable trade value is greater than what he'd likely provide to the team in my opinion. Avoid, avoid, avoid.

Hunter Renfroe

1 year, $7.6 million

Why not? Renfroe wouldn't actually cost much of anything, if the Royals are interested in trading him anyway. Not a foregone conclusion. He had a player option for next year that he activated so you know he's not worth much on the open market. Some of you may be wondering why I even bring up Renfroe, and that's because he has a career 125 wRC+ against LHP. And to be fair also, he has played way too much against RHP lately for being a guy who should only hit lefties. But he's a very, very bad defender, so I'd probably rather just go with Luken Baker over this guy if I'm picking a guy who should only DH.

Taylor Ward

$9.2 million, 2 years of team control

Why not? He appeals to me the most of the options so far to be honest. But his presence is kind of at odds with the 2025 plan. He can't play CF, which would present a problem, and he's too good to platoon. So say hello to Lars Nootbaar in CF again... or Jordan Walker goes to AAA. It'd just be kind of an odd move unless this was the Cardinals way of saying "actually we're not rebuilding." In addition, he'd probably demand Tink Hence, Quinn Mathews or Tekoah Roby without doing the math to figure out Ward's trade value. Which is another way of saying "yeah we're no longer rebuilding."

Lane Thomas

$8.3 million, 1 year of team control

Why not? Well I doubt he's available. He's only on this list because the Cleveland Guardians are a very cheap team and Thomas kind of isn't so maybe they'll want to unload his salary. I also mention him because it is somewhat hilarious how perfect of a fit he would be on the Cardinals roster. He has a career 140 wRC+ against lefties and he can sort of stand in CF. He's another example of an outfielder whose overall stats are hurt because teams seem to think he can hit right-handed pitching. He can't (87 career wRC+) He's not a good defender either.

And that's kind of it guys. There are a few more high salary, not very good options as well (Starling Marte, Jorge Soler for example) who could have been on this list, but the Cardinals aren't picking up the tab for them. And there's plenty of outfielders with lots of team control that aren't worth mentioning. In most cases, their trade value wouldn't be very high but they can contribute 1 WAR in a platoon role (Chaz McCormick, Austin Martin to name a couple.)

Sure, why not?

Sean Bouchard

Technically, he has a career 115 wRC+, and I'm not entirely sure why he didn't get more chances in 2022 or 2023. He did suck in 2024 though. He seems to be exclusively a corner outfielder, which is a rather big downside. Basically, picking him up is "maybe he'll do better away from Coors." The Rockies are in even more of a position to play guys to see what they have so I'm not sure I see trading him from the Rockies perspective. Listen I didn't have many names here, and he's padding the list. But "maybe he'd do better away from Colorado" is not a bad starting point.

Sandro Fabian

He's been stuck in AAA for the Texas Rangers for three seasons now. He got promoted to AAA late in the 2022 season, wasn't very good. And the last two seasons, he's been mediocre in AAA and not really gotten a shot at the MLB level. He's 27. And... he crushes lefties. At least in AAA. In 2024, he batted .356 with a 1.093 OPS against LHP. In 2023, he batted .388 with a 1.140 OPS against LHP.

He's a corner outfielder, but he did see 9 games in CF for the AAA squad. Fangraphs gives him a 60 throwing arm, so he's probably ideally suited in RF. He can't make traction with the Rangers squad and maybe they'll even DFA him. But why not just play Fabian purely against lefties and see if anything clicks.

Everson Pereira

Okay so the Cardinals should legit try to acquire Pereira in my honest opinion. He's a post-hype prospect. He ranked as high as 4th in the Yankees system as recently as 2023 by Fangraphs. He will be 24 next season. He spent nearly all of 2024 injured, but had a 120 wRC+ in AAA. Gabe this is all great, but why the hell would the Yankees trade him?

He's out of options. The Yankees are in win now mode. Pereira is no longer a prized prospect. He's now 16th in their system. They have Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Jasson Dominguez, and they hope Juan Soto. Where does he fit in? He had a 21 wRC+ the last time he got an MLB shot and in 103 plate appearances. He's not reliable and they want to win now. Get a little something for him now instead of having to DFA him later. Or so goes the logic.

He does have severe strikeout issues and Fangraphs does give him a 40 fielding grade, but he did come up as a CF - still played some CF in 2024 - and he has a 55 speed grade. And we all know how scouting and defense works. Besides, the purpose of acquiring him is more on the off-chance that what originally made him a great prospect is still hidden in there somewhere. He's only 24! Again assuming that they get Juan Soto - kind of a huge assumption admittedly - there's no real route to him playing in New York with two long-term deals and Dominguez being the OF. And I don't see how he can realize his potential by staying on the bench all the time anyway. No idea what his trade value is though. Seems too young and with too good of a past pedigree to be a DFA candidate.

Nelson Velazquez

Another buy low candidate. Velazquez is out of options in the Royals system and had a bad 2024. No question about it. They gave him some chances too. He had a 76 wRC+ in 230 PAs. But he got sent down on June 23rd and never got called back up. I'd maybe bet the Cardinals could claim him off waivers soon honestly.

Velazquez is a corner outfielder who has played CF, but probably shouldn't. He has a career 104 wRC+ against LHP, but I do see potential in that rising. He only has a .261 BABIP for his career. He's only 26 next year. He has a career 97 wRC+ and has shown a ton of power with a .221 ISO. So I like that as well. And he has a rather low career BABIP, but his xwOBA suggests it should be higher. His career batting average is .212, but his xBA is .245. Given that he walks enough (8.5 BB% for career) and has a .200+ ISO, that'd easily be an above average hitter. Doesn't have huge splits, so he won't kill you facing right-handed pitchers either.

And... that's kind of it. Honestly, the Cardinals best route to acquiring a right-handed outfielder is simply through free agency. Maybe they can find a team who will give them a cost-controlled right-handed outfielder who can play CF in exchange for Nolan Arenado or Ryan Helsley, but I obviously chose to focus on the low-cost options instead. Hell, maybe Pereira will be in the Arenado trade to the Yankees. That would actually make a ton of sense. Remember where you read it first if that happens.