Potential fixes for a Playoff Run
07/03/2024 09:00 AM
Some choices to be made between present and future
Earlier, I posted an article
1. An right-handed bat to offset a vulnerability to left-handed pitching.
2. A bullpen arm to reduce over-exposure / over-use
3. A good (ie. not back-end) starting pitcher to make the rotation a strength
From comments I'm seeing on the boards, there seems to be good consensus these are the needs. This article goes into a bit more detail about need#1 - a RH bat. On the surface, it sems obvious. But, adding such a thing might be trickier than it looks. That is what I'd like to explore. Aside from questions about what RH bats might be available, one has to consider exactly what changes you'd want to make to the roster, and what the impact might be, now and in the future. As always with me, I try to think along with Cardinal management and go through it how they seem to process these things.
To start, let's get into some detail about what weak area(s) need shored up. The table below shows how each position player is performing relative to "average". I include only those 11 position players getting somewhat regular playing time. Because that is the first challenge to address … to acquire a RH bat who impacts the second half (or final third) of the season, they have to displace one of these players. And by displace, I mean significantly reduced playing time for one of these guys (or off the roster).
These are 2024 Fangraphs results (and rule of thumb definitions) for overall WAR, offense (OFF), defense (DEF) and baserunning (BsR). These are through game 81. Blue is below average, green is above. The trick is to replac blues with greens to see meaningful change. Simply put, more green is better, more blue is worse.
This is a results-oriented business and half a season's results can no longer be considered a fluke, particularly when they extend trends observed in 2023. As I look at that spectrum of performance, I see three areas that could be meaningfully improved and one opportunity to be leveraged. These 3 problem areas in their lineup to consider fixing are: Burleson, Gorman, Goldschmidt. The one opportunity would be creating an opening in LF by moving Donovan back to a super-utility role.
A word on the others, first. If you take any of the other 8 "non problem" players and replace them with someone else, your chances of getting much improvement in Wins over the final 50-60 games is minimal. Maybe Juan Soto would add a win more than Lars Nootbar or two wins more than Donovan (maybe), but that isn't a much to offset the cost, which would be astronomical. No cost benefit is a very Cardinal evaluation.
One could say they should dump Arenado, but realistically he is an average everyday third baseman and is still above average defensively. Defensively or offensively, he is not what he was, but he is still solid. It would be nigh onto impossible to acquire a third baseman better than him enough to make a meaningful difference in win/loss outcomes over the last 50-60 games.
Some might say they need an upgrade over Siani, but I don't see that. His speed and defense is helping keep this team moving forward. Right or wrong, I suspect the Cardinals will want to find offense elsewhere. If anything, we will see Siani and Edman in a left-right platoon.
When you apply this kind of Cardinal logic, you confirm 8 players as your core and narrow to the three areas that are problematic enough that an improvement would/could be felt in wins/losses over the final stretch. Let's dive into a little more detail.
The Burleson "problem" is pretty easily fixed without making a trade. Simply put, he needs to DH more so that his superior offense isn't offset negatively by the poor defense. He is closer to awful than below average, using FanGraphs terms. But that fix can happen as Nootbar and Edman return. In this problem area, no move is probably the right move. Letting him migrate to DH is the fix.
The Gorman "problem" is challenging. He is below average offensively, below average defensively and below average in baserunning. His main calling card (hitting for power) comes in short hot streaks and long strikeout streaks. He is also part of the vulnerability to left-handed pitching that exists team-wide. If you are looking just at today, this year, then a new 2nd baseman who hits right-handed (decently or better) would be a perfect fit. If he fields at an average level, that would be a bonus. This idea is complicated by the challenge that such a player would effectively "block" Gorman's development, at least for the remainder of 2024. The decision point for the Cardinals may be what matters more … Gorman's development or improving a weakness to enhance playoff opportunities this year. They tend to equivocate when faced with these dilemmas and stay with status quo. The typical Cardinal "path of least resistance" approach might be to start spotting in Donovan at 2B more as the outfielders (Edman, Nootbar) find health. Second base is a prime area for improvement, but I'm not sure they take it. Also, I'm not sure there is such a replacement in the marketplace. A thought occurs that if Gorman could fetch a good ML pitcher, that might actually solve two problems at once. I don't know if this is realistic, though. He is only 24 and the Cardinals are very averse to trading young, home-grown talent.
The Goldschmidt "problem" is even more vexing. There aren't any future complications, as his contract is up at the end of this season. This problem fixes itself in the longer term, just by letting 3 more months pass. But what to do this year? That .656 OPS batting cleanup needs to be addressed. That defensive hole (-7.4 DEF) could use patching, too. I know that -7.4 DEF is already positionally adjusted, but a better first baseman makes the other infielders better, too. That said, I just don't see the Cardinal's acquiring a right-handed bat to play first and benching Goldy for the stretch run. It's not their style. Would be way off-brand, and a bit cold-hearted. This decision becomes more about who the Cardinals want to be as a franchise and as a culture. Do you dance with who brought you, or do you discard and replace because winning is everything (or the only thing)? For better or worse, I don't see the Cardinals taking the cold-hearted route. If anything, as Nootbar and others come back, they may try and ease Goldy down the line-up some and may show Burly at first when high octane right-handers toe the rubber.
The one "opportunity" the Cardinals have is flexibility with Donovan. If they could find an RH bat to play a corner OF, I'm sure they could find ways to plug in Donovan (at second for Gorman, at third for Arenado, 4th OFer). This opportunity might well be all that the Cardinals do on the position player side of things. Gee, where might they find a corner OFer? Do not sleep on Jordan Walker being the chose path here.
So, the problem areas seem clear, the opportunity (such as it is) exists, the needs seem clear and, likely, the Cardinals approach is predictable, if not clear. And will perhaps be a bit disappointing.
Thoughts?
