Michael McGreevy is your #6 prospect.
Yesterday at 09:00 AM
Also your chance to vote on the next prospect
Technically speaking, I didn't actually need to re-run the vote. Michael McGreevy was winning the 6th vote (with no Chase Davis) when I closed the poll last week and by far, and he won against both Chase Davis and Cooper Hjerpe on Thursday. But at least now there's no doubt on the rankings. The readers clearly think Michael McGreevy is the #6 prospect in the system. Because of that, these are the rankings to date:
- JJ Wetherholt, SS
- Quinn Mathews, LHP
- Tink Hence, RHP
- Thomas Saggese, 2B/3B
- Jimmy Crooks, C
- Michael McGreevy, RHP
Comparable Player Corner
I actually think I know how this vote is going to go, but I'd rather be certain. I won't tell you how I think it will go nor which player I personally prefer, because they may not be the same! Today, we have a head-to-head with two High A outfielders, at least I think both of them are starting the season in High A. Both of them played last season in Low A.
Looking at their numbers, they are actually more similar than I even thought. Both had very high BABIPs to arrive at their line. Both had excellent K/BB numbers. And because one was injured and the other a recent draft pick, they are even on similar ground when it comes to sample size.
Travis Honeyman, a 23-year-old outfielder out of Boston College who can't quite shake the injury bug. He didn't play much, but did have a 156 wRC+ in 20 games in Low A, which I have to imagine is good enough to put him in High A. He was last year's #20 prospect.
Ian Petrutz, a 22-year-old who was selected in the 12th round last year. Seemingly out of nowhere, he managed a 172 wRC+ in Low A in 28 games, mostly on the strength of an elite approach. It did come with no power (.089 ISO). Again I imagine those are strong enough numbers that he'll be in High A.
New additions
Well, the people have spoken and it's something of an unexpected result in this writer's opinion. I am not surprised Gordon Graceffo won the poll, I am surprised he decisively won the poll. That one I did not expect. Since Graceffo is seen as a higher tier of prospect than the other two, I can probably wait to add them until Graceffo gains some traction in the voting, so that's nice at least. He's one of two players I am adding today. The second player is Zach Showalter, who was acquired in the Jack Flaherty trade back in 2023.
Leonardo Bernal, C - 21
LYR: #13
Stats (High A): 96 G, 382 PAs, .270/.343/.419, 9.7 BB%, 22.8 K%, .150 ISO, .333 BABIP, 120 wRC+, 110 DRC+
AA: 14 G, 55 PAs, .204/.291/.286, 10.9 BB%, 16.4 K%, .082 ISO, .231 BABIP, 68 wRC+, 101 DRC+
AFL: 13 G, 51 PAs, .304/.373/.391, 9.8 BB%, 17.6 K%, .087 ISO, .361 BABIP
BP: A 20-year-old catcher who hits from both sides of the plate and has an assortment of well-rounded useful offensive abilities projects to be a starter more often than not."
Couple notes about Bernal you may not know. I've said it a few times, but his AFL stats are actually slightly below average, because the run environment really is that crazy. Secondly, I didn't actually know he was a switch hitter for the longest time, and since I never point that out, that might be useful information.
Won-Bin Cho, OF - 21
LYR: #11
Stats (High A): 107 G, 428 PAs, .227/.307/.305, 8.4 BB%, 31.3 K%, .078 ISO, .343 BABIP, 81 wRC+, 74 DRC+
BP: "Cho profiles favorably in the field, a solid corner outfield defender thanks to above-average speed and adequate reads, but is likely stretched in center field."
You might be wondering why Cho is even on the voting after such a disastrous season and really the reason is age. He's still quite young for his level. This would be a terrible sign, but hypothetically if he needed a full year in High A again, and then needed two years in AA, and then needed two years in AAA, he will have just finished his age 25 season in that second AAA season. So he certainly has time.
Chase Davis, OF - 23
LYR: #8
Stats (Low A): 34 G, 131 PAs, .232/.337/.401, 12.7 BB%, 25.1 K%, .169 ISO, .293 BABIP, 111 wRC+, 114 DRC+
High A: 74 G, 315 PAs, .301/.388/.451, 10.1 BB%, 25.1 K%, .150 ISO, .383 BABIP, 144 wRC+, 103 DRC+
AA: 8 G, 31 PAs, .250/.323/.429, 9.7 BB%, 16.1 K%, .179 ISO, .273 BABIP, 103 wRC+, 99 DRC+
BP: "Davis has, at individual times over the last two years, flashed every tool and skill needed for a star outcome. He just hasn't shown them consistently as a pro."
The biggest knock on Davis is how long he was at Low A for a college-aged hitter. At the same time, no real time has been lost, because he's in AA this season anyway, because the Cardinals speed-run him through High A, no doubt because of how well he he hit there. How much he succeeds or struggles in AA will probably make or break him as a real prospect.
Gordon Graceffo, RHP - 25
LYR: #6
Stats (AAA): 27 G, 130 IP, 18.4 K%, 8.6 BB%, 40.2 GB%, .328 BABIP, 4.85 ERA/5.17 FIP/5.17 xFIP
BP: "He averaged 92.8 in Triple-A and 93.5 in a brief spell in the majors this season, and at that velocity his fastball shape really isn't enough to miss bats and his changeup doesn't play as well as a swing-and-miss pitch."
At best, Graceffo stalled last season, although he did pitch reasonably good in a short sample at the MLB level, which was encouraging. It's not clear if he'll ever regain the velocity he once had, but he did it before, so it's possible.
Cooper Hjerpe, LHP - 24
LYR: #7
Stats (High A): 11 GS, 37.2 IP, 35.2 K%, 12.6 BB%, 50.6 GB%, .297 BABIP, 3.35 ERA/3.57 FIP/3.38 xFIP/3.78 DRA
AA: 4 GS, 14.2 IP, 35.1 K%, 14 BB%, 24.1 GB%, .207 BABIP, 3.07 ERA/2.23 FIP/3.63 xFIP/4.76 DRA
BP: "That Sale-ish weirdo delivery gives Hjerpe a lot of the same positives as Sale, although nowhere near as pronounced and with some concerns attached.... He does not yet possess anything close to Sale's ability to spot the ball around the strike zone, and his command and control remain spotty."
Hjerpe comes with injury problems and reliever risk, but given his strikeout numbers as a starting pitcher, he's at least in line to be a pretty damn good reliever if it comes to that. But his future as a starting pitcher is uncertain to say the least.
Chen-Wei Lin, RHP - 23-years-old
LYR: Unranked
Stats (Low A): 22 GS, 116 IP, 26.6 K%, 7.8 BB%, 45.3 GB%, .282 BABIP, 2.79 ERA/2.94 FIP/3.38 xFIP/3.82 DRA
BP: "Lin turns 23 next week and has yet to pitch above Low-A, but whenever a pitcher pairs this sort of velocity on his fastball with an extremely high-whiff changeup, the right dev team is going to have a lot to work with."
One thing I did not actually know about Lin and forgive me for not knowing this, is that he was 6'7. Yes Lin is a gigantic human being. He is also very thin. The above quote mentions the whiff-heavy changeup, and the current downside to Lin is probably that, despite the speed, his fastball doesn't actually get many whiffs. That could change, and obviously the contrast with the change helps get the change more whiffs. But the fastball to date isn't getting swings and misses in zone.
Sem Robberse, RHP - 23
LYR: #10
Stats (AAA): 16 G (14 GS), 84.1 IP, 21.8 K%, 7.8 BB%, 44 GB%, .273 BABIP, 4.59 ERA/4.77 FIP/4.61 xFIP/5.25 DRA
BP: Robberse at least has some whiffier offerings in his sweeper and hard changeup—which is only four mph off his fastball—and his cutterish slider has utility too, so of this group he might have the most relief conversion potential.
I don't know if surprisingly young is the right word, but Robberse had his first taste of AAA as a 21-year-old and last year, he was just 22-years-old. In addition, he had his injury troubles that derailed his season a bit. Pitching what amounts to average (due to the run environment) as a 22-year-old in AAA is pretty solid.
Tekoah Roby, RHP - 23
LYR: #4
Stats (AA): 7 GS, 33.1 IP, 21.4 K%, 7.8 BB%, 37.4 GB%, 6.75 ERA/6.59 FIP/4.19 xFIP/5.47 DRA
BP: "Roby is a stuff-model darling. The problem is that Roby just can't stay healthy, and even when he pitched this year his stuff wasn't as sharp and he got tattooed."
It's relatively likely that his stuff wasn't as sharp last year because of the injury that knocked him out of most of last season, but nonetheless it's still a concern because it can have long-lasting effects. With that said, I'm more worried about staying healthy than his actual stats last year, which was incredibly small sample, and again, probably influenced by his injury.
Darlin Saladin, RHP - 22
LYR: Unranked
Stats (Low A): 11 G, 60 IP, 26.8 K%, 7.4 BB%, 44.7 GB%, .287 BABIP, 1.95 ERA/2.61 FIP/3.29 xFIP/3.16 DRA
High A: 12 G, 63 IP, 27.9 K%, 6.2 BB%, 42.8 GB%, 42.8 GB%, .344 BABIP, 3.43 ERA/2.73 FIP/3.29 xFIP/4.00 DRA
BP: "Saladin is another low-VAA fastball oddity king; you can really see the Cardinals trending hard in this direction over the past few years. After three years mostly bopping around the complex, he showed up in A-ball this year and torched both levels working primarily off a low-to-mid-90s heater from a flat angle."
Saladin is one of the more peculiar prospects that I can remember the Cardinals having. A pitcher who hung around for a few years before breaking out. There's just about no indication that he would suddenly become a legitimate prospect after 2023, much less post genuinely good numbers at both Low A and High A. He just came out of nowhere.
Zack Showalter, RHP - 21
Stats (Low A): 24 G, 34.1. IP, 38.6 K%, 11.8 BB%, 43.9 GB%, .373 BABIP, 2.62 ERA/2.48 FIP/3.02 xFIP
BP: "His low-90s, sub-4 VAA fastball out of an extremely funky delivery was absurdly dominant against Low-A hitters, and he also weaponized a sweeper against same-side batters for a very tough look."
Showalter is older than Tink Hence when he was on the same program, but I believe last year was Step One of the Tink Hence program. He is technically listed as a reliever, but I'm pretty sure that was a way to limit his innings. He certainly pitched well enough to deserve a shot to start.
