HOT TAKES - How did they hold up?

12/19/2024 09:00 AM

Some held up! Some did not! Some were never meant to be taken seriously.

I have to give a shout-out to country stuff for reminding me that we had an APRIL HOT TAKES post earlier this year that desperately needs to be revisited. It garnered a LOT of comments and a lot of hot takes. I only made two 2024 specific hot takes, one of which came true and one of which very much did not. I said Alec Burleson was never getting sent to the minors. I also said JoJo Romero was getting more saves than Ryan Helsley in 2024 which is wrong on a level I will struggle to match.

The other three are to be determined. Brendan Donovan will hit 30 homers at some point in his career. Not feeling great about that. Cooper Hjerpe will never start an MLB game. I guess I felt "end up in the bullpen" was a bit too easy of a take cause that's a high bar. And that Zach Showalter will be the best pitching prospect in the system at some point. Feel okay about that. But remember, these are hot takes. So a lot are going to be wrong.

Correct Takes

London Bird - "Jordan Walker is sent down to AAA Memphis before the end of May"

Jordan Walker didn't even make it to May, so he didn't quite make it a hot enough take, but this was very spot on.

cardsfanSJC - "TOMMY EDMAN AND DYLAN CARLSON ARE EATEN BY WOLVES"

Metaphorically speaking, this basically happened. Edman never took a PA as a Cardinal in 2024. And Dylan Carlson performed at the plate like wolves were lurking in the corner, ready to jump him.

TommyPhanatic - "CONTRERAS WILL BE OUR 1B AFTER GOLDY MOVES ON/RETIRES"

Crazy accurate. At the time, it did not look so obvious that the Cardinals were in love with Pedro Pages, so this is more impressive than it might initially seem. Also, Goldy is exactly the type of vet the Cards had signed to extensions in the past, so it was very much not a sure thing he was leaving.

cardzfanbub - "SCOTT CAN'T GET OUT OF HIS HEAD AND HAS A LOST 2024 DROPPING HIM OFF ALL TOP 100 LISTS."

I'm not sure Scott's problem was mental so I can't endorse the first part and technically speaking, he is off all top 100 lists, because he was in the majors too long. But the spirit of this is right. He probably would not be a top 100 prospect even if eligible.

FDR_Redbird - "TOMMY "TWO BAGS" GETS TRADED AT THE DEADLINE"

Good call. Really good call.

Bedivere - "Pages stays up for a big chunk of the year bc we run with a lineup that includes Herrera and Conteras most of the time bc both r hitting well."

The reasoning is actually not right interestingly enough, but Pages was in fact up for a big chunk of the year. It just so happened that Contreras got hurt multiple times and the Cardinals decided Ivan Herrera should be in AAA for a month.

Careless Whisperer - "DYLAN CARLSON DOESN'T PUT UP ANOTHER 1+ WAR SEASON WITH THE CARDS"

I guess the jury is still out on this, because Carlson could return the Cardinals before his career is over, but it's looking pretty strong at the moment.

skawg - "TOMMY EDMAN NEVER REALLY GETS FULLY HEALTHY"

As a Cardinal, this hot take was correct and I suppose could also be true more generally. Maybe he played slightly hurt with the Dodgers, who's to say? His xwOBA was awful.

grammer - "MO ANNOUNCES HE IS STEPPING DOWN/RETIRING; CHAIM BLOOM IS NAMED HIS REPLACEMENT. VEB CRASHES DUE TO ALL OF THE HIGHLY INTELLIGENT AND STIMULATING CONVERSATIONS THAT FOLLOW, AIDED BY ALL OF THE RED SOX FANS TROLLING AND SHITPOSTS"

This is here for the first part. If VEB crashed every time highly intelligent and stimulating conversations happened, this site would have ended years ago.

thp0344 - "VICTOR SCOTT HITS LIKE A POSITION PLAYER HIS SECOND CALLUP"

I think you should have went bolder and said above average hitter cause like a position player is above... like a 50 wRC+. I think I know what you meant though. Anyway, he had an 84 wRC+ which qualifies.

birdonthehat - "Tyler Oneill has more fWAR than Noot, Walker and Carlson combined this year."

This ended up being true more because of Carlson and Walker being bad, because O'Neill only actually got 2.5 WAR, which even with Nootbaar's injury issues, should have been easy to beat.

Okay, I'll try my best to summarize the rest of the takes, but it's not going to be easy. A couple topics came up a lot. A lot of the same players were mentioned. So I tried to split those up into its own section.

Masyn Winn

LondonBird - "Masyn Winn is a finalist for rookie of the year"

BigMeanMike - "Masyn Winn is a star."

BWalkerAz - "Winn leads the Cards in fWAR."

cardzfanbub - "WINN AND HERRERA FINISH 1 AND 2 IN ROY VOTING."

uncledurwood - "HERRARA AND WINN ARE CO ROY WINNERS"

Basically, people were high on Masyn Winn. The thing that distinguishes an optimistic take from a hot take is going the extreme, so BWalkerAZ has the best "hot" take of this group. The Herrera take never had a chance because Herrera was not a rookie. And it almost came true! Sonny Gray has him beat, but he did have the highest position player WAR.

Lance Lynn

LondonBird - "Lance Lynn loses 40lb"

He was the first comment if you couldn't tell. He certainly didn't lose 40 pounds during the season.

Bedivere - "LANCE LYNN GETS CY YOUNG VOTES THIS YEAR"

uncledurwood - "LANCE LYNN BREAKS A BELT EVERY GAME, EVENTUALLY HE WINS A GAME AND IT BECOMES "THE RALLY BELT."

thp - "THE ONLY TEAM BURLESON AND LYNN SHARE TOGETHER AFTER MEMORIAL DAY IS THE DENNYS FRANCHISE THEY RUN TOGETHER."

BurlyBird - "SONNY GRAY, STEVEN MATZ AND LANCE LYNN FINISH THE SEASON WITH 5+, 4+ AND 3+ fWAR, RESPECTIVELY, AND THE CARDS WIND UP WITH A TOP-8 ROTATION. THP IS STILL NOT SATISFIED."

I'm going to do you dirty BurlyBird, and not be able to post your full comment, because it would up my word count from 2,500 words to 3,500 words, so this is the best I can do. This could have gone in about four different sections, I'm just padding the Lynn list here.

Steven Matz

There were a shocking number of hot takes thinking Steven Matz would be healthy, which lasted precisely three more starts.

cardfanSJC - "MATZ STARTS 30 GAMES"

Bediver - "MATZ HAS A CAREER YEAR, WE PROMPTLY TRADE HIM IN THE OFFSEASON KENT BOTTENFIELD STYLE. HE NEVER STARTS 20 GAMES AGAIN."

Capitan - "MATZ HAS THE BEST NUMBERS OF ALL THE CARDINALS STARTING PITCHERS."

Gorman walks Noooooooot

countrystuff: "JORDAN WALKER NEVER PUTS UP A 4+ WAR SEASON AS A CARDINAL, GOES TO THE DODGERS IN FREE AGENCY, IMMEDIATELY RUNS A 1.000 OPS"

The latter part of this feels like a troll, but I genuinely feel like you are so confident the first part won't happen that you felt the take needed to be hotter. Judging by your comments about Walker in the past year.

StlLuvCards - "JORDAN WALKER SETTLES IN AND FINISHES TOP 7 IN MVP VOTING IN 2024 AS HE SHOWS IMPROVED DEFENSE AND HITS ENOUGH FLY BALLS TO GET TO 30 HOMERS"

Oh how I wish this happened.

countrystuff: "NOLAN GORMAN HITS 40 HRS AND IS THE NL ALL STAR STARTER AT 2B"

BurlyBird - "NOLAN GORMAN HITS FOR A 150+ wRC+ AND 40 HRS IN 2024. THE PETROLARIAT COMPLAINS THAT HE ISN'T A 2B DESPITE HIM POSTING A +5 OAA SEASON."

Oh how I wish this happened

Tommy Phanatic: "NOOTBAR WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST WAR OF ANY CARDINAL THIS YEAR"

Oh how I wish this happened.

Nolan Arenado

Some of you wanted Nolan Arenado to be back so incredibly badly, which led to takes like these:

jdog55 - "NOLAN 2.0 WILL MASH 37 DINGERS AND FINISH THIRD IN GG VOTING LOL GOD BLESS WAIT THAT DOESN'T MEAN I'M KIDDING I REALLY THINK HE'S GONNA PULL THOSE OFF LOL GOD BLESS"

LoLoTrail - "my hot take, all lower case, is that Arenado takes 2nd in MVP voting. he'll start banging away in two games. he seems close now. I thought he nailed a few balls at the end of spring training that I thought were out of the park off the bat. HE'S CLOSE GUYS AND GALS"

BurlyBird - "ARENADO HAS ANOTHER TOP-3 MVP SEASON IN 2024. VEB IMMEDIATELY WANTS TO TRADE HIM BECAUSE "HE HAS NOWHERE TO GO BUT DOWN" AND "WILL DECLINE FASTER THAN ANYONE!""

And some of you were very down on Arenado.

countrystuff - "NOLAN ARENADO RUNS A 2024 WRC+ BELOW 90, BLAMES HIS STRUGGLES ON ALL THE YOUNG WHIPPERSNAPPERS RUNNING AROUND THE CLUBHOUSE WITH THEIR RAP MUSIC AND THEIR TIK TAK VIDEOS AND THEIR BROCCOLI HAIRCUTS."

The next two responses are said in the voice of Charlie Murphy: Wrong

Careless Whisperer - "NOLAN ARENADO ONLY HAS ONE MORE FULL SEASON IN HIS CAREER WITH AN ABOVE AVERAGE BATTING LINE, AND IT ISN'T 2024"

Wrong!

HueyRVA - "ARENADO HAS A TERRIBLE FIRST HALF OF SEASON, NEVER BATS BELOW FOURTH IN THE LINE UP, BUT RECOVERS FOR A GREAT SECOND HALF OF THE SEASON"

Huey you seem to be correct about where Arenado ended up, but the halves were fairly similar.

2024 Optimism

onioncountryredbird - "WITH A .500 TEAM IN JULY, AND GETTING NO TRADE OFFERS HE LIKES, MO STANDS PAT AT THE DEADLINE. THE CARDINALS THEN WIN 20 GAMES IN AUGUST AND TAKE THE DIVISION EASILY. AUGUST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE MATZ THROWING A NO-HITTER, SIANI PUTTING UP A STRETCH OF 2012 KOZMA-LIKE OFFENSIVE STATS, HERRERA AND GORMAN HITTING BACK TO BACK HOMERS IN THREE STRAIGHT GAMES, AND MATT CARPENTER PINCH HITTING IN THE NINTH WITH THE BASES LOADED IN A TIE GAME AND HAVING AN EPIC 18 PITCH AT BAT THAT ENDS IN A WALK TO WALK IT OFF."

infallibleopiniongenerator - "cards dominate division on back of great offense (lead by Donovan, Gorman, Contreras, Herrerra, Walker, Goldschmidt), good starting pitching & defense & dominant bullpen).

Mo is a great gm."

Red Whitey - "VSII IS SENT DOWN, BROUGHT BACK UP IN TIME TO BE ON THE POSTSEASON ROSTER. PINCH RUNS IN EXTRAS IN GAME 6 OF THE 2024 WS. STEALS 3RD AND THEN HOME TO WALK IT OFF BEFORE AN OUT IS RECORDED IN THE INNING.

StlLuvCards - "CARDINAL MINOR LEAGUE PITCHERS TAKE STEPS FORWARD THIS YEAR THAT MAKE KINDRED AND THP EXCITED ABOUT THE 2025 ROTATION"

RedNotes - "THE CARDINALS WILL JUST BARELY SQUEAK INTO THE PLAYOFFS AND THEN SOMEHOW WIN THE WORLD SERIES."

Everything BurlyBird said.

Ex-Cardinal Syndrome

LondonBird - "Tyler O'Neill has 600 PAs in 2024"

blindmouse - "Arozarena, Adolis Garcia and O'Neill will be the starting outfield for the AL All-Star team. Richie Palacios will be selected as a backup. Patrick Wisdom will lead the NL in home runs. Grichuk will finish top 5 in MVP voting. Zac Gallen and Marco Gonzales will finish 1-2 in NL Cy Young voting. Jack Flaherty will finish top 5 in AL Cy voting. Matt Carpenter will be an outfielder."

BWalkerAZ - "TON wins AL MVP with 8 fWAR season. Hicks wins NL Cy Young."

Very wrong

LondonBird - "Cesar Prieto reaches the majors before Thomas Saggese"

This may have been true if Saggese was not Rule 5 eligible and Prieto was. Cardinals are definitely higher on Saggese, but if you can avoid putting a fringe MLB player on the 40 man unless it's necessary, you do it. Saggese was going to be added anyway by November.

FDR_Redbird - "TINK HENCE IS IN THE ROTATION FOR THE PLAYOFFS"

Wouldn't it be Nice chorus starts playing

Bedivere - "ROMERO IS THE CLOSER BY AUGUST, DESPITE HELSLEY BEING HEALTHY BY THAT POINT."

HueyRVA - "HELSLEY SEES THE SUCCESS OF JORDAN HICKS AND HAS A TERRIBLE SEASON, AND FALLS TO FIFTH IN THE BULLPEN BEHIND JOJO, KITTREDGE, GALLEGOS, MIDDLETON"

Guys, listen. I'm on your side. I made this prediction, or a version of this prediction. A relief pitcher hot take is the way to go. It can sound outlandish and still maybe come true. And yet we are the foolish ones.

Bedivere - "Sem Robberse locks down a rotation spot for 2025."

Oh how I wish this were true.

skawg - "ANDRE PALLANTE NEVER HAS A GOOD SEASON PITCHING FOR THE CARDINALS AGAIN"

Immediately wrong, good stuff.

NEITHER TINK HENCE OR TEKOAH ROBY ARE THE TOP PITCHING PROSPECT AT THE END OF THE YEAR.

Turrible.

BRANDON DONOVAN IS THE BEST HITTER FOR THE CARDINALS... FOR THE NEXT THREE YEARS.

Already wrong in Year 1, just saying this year wasn't good enough for you, huh? Donovan couldn't even hit better than a couple of catchers.

Everything BurlyBird said.

To be determined

Tommy Phanatic - "ANDRE PALLANTE WILL BECOME A LIGHTS-OUT STARTER FOR ANOTHER TEAM"

The implication is that he does not do this with the Cardinals, but it is possible for this to be true and for him to also have done it on the Cardinals.

Careless Whisperer (three for the price of one) - "2. ALEC BURLESON WINS THE BATTING TITLE WITH SOME OTHER TEAM DURING HIS CAREER.

Why would you say that?

3. TINK HENCE DOESN'T HAVE A SUCCESFUL MLB CAREER

WHY WOULD YOU SAY THAT?

4. LARS NOOTBAAR ENDS UP IN THE CARDINALS HOF"

Depends on if he's traded, but he can probably get in with a relatively low WAR total given his popularity honestly.

BigMeanMike - "Victor Scott will never be able to hit MLB pitching. You can't steal first."

Jordan Walker is the latest in a long line of disappointing top outfield prospects for the Cardinals. The excuses about how long he has been playing the position will wear thin as he gets deeper into his second full season. At the dish, he GIDPs like Pujols but HRs like Molina."

You've been hurt before. You need a prospect that can win back your heart.

Jokes

grammer - "WALKER WILL STAY UNDER THE MENDOZA LINE UNTIL HE DISCOVERS THE POWER OF THE TILAPS, AND ADDS AT LEAST 30LBS OF ALPHA MUSCLE TO HIS SCRAWNY FRAME, BRAH"

The spirit of this take could very well be accurate.

countrystuff: "CHIP CARAY, EVEN WITH A VOICE THAT SOUNDS LIKE HE GARGLED GRAVEL ALL MORNING, IS STILL MORE ENJOYABLE THAN DANNY MAC"

This isn't so much of a joke as an opinion admittedly, but it made me laugh.

cdb: "1. LANCE LYNN GAINS 50 LBS

2. THE CARDINALS DEVELOP A CUSTOM KEVLAR BELT TO CONTAIN HIS GIRTH

3. HIS ADDITIONAL MASS RESULTS IN A 3 MPH GAIN IN FASTBALL SPEED

4. THIS IS OFFSET BY A 3 MPH DECREASE IN FASTBALL SPEED DUE TO THE INCREASED GRAVITY OF LANCE LYNN

5. THE NONLINEARITY OF SPACE-TIME AND INCREASED GRAVITY INTERACT TO DRAMATICALLY IMPROVE THE SHAPE OF HIS PITCHES.

6. LANCE LYNN WINS THE CY YOUNG UNANIMOUSLY."

You can see why I had to share this.

Birds4life4397 - "CHIP CARAY WILL BE ARRESTED FOR DUI, BE FIRED BY THE BALLY SPORTS, AND WILL BE REPLACED BY............... DAN MCLAUGHLIN."

uncledurwood - "JIM HAYES GAINS 30 LBS. TO SHOW SOLIDARITY WITH LANCE LYNN"

Birds4life4397 - "THE CARDINALS WILL WIN THE WORLD SERIES, FANS WILL STORM THE FIELD, AND OLI MARMOL WILL CROWD SURF WITH A BEER IN ONE HAND WHILE GIVING THE MIDDLE FINGER WITH THE OTHER."

BernardGilkeyHasaPosse! - "THE REAL KILLERS SLIP UP IN 2024, GETTING COCKY IN THE ABSCENCE OF THE JUICE'S CONSTANT, VIGILANT SEARCH."

OJ died that day. Not a joke. That actually may be a funnier fact than anything I have written.

thp - "MOZALIAK IS SECRETLY THE MAJORITY OWNER OF THE CARDINALS AND HAS A SCROOGE MCDUCK SWIMMING POOL HE SOAKS IN WHILE LAUGHING AT HIS DEFENDERS ON VEB."

Everything BurlyBird said.

Whatever this is

BigMeanMike - PETEPOD SHOT ACHES

LOL I DONUT NOW ACHOO MEAN BY 'HOT TAKE' BUT I DO LYSOL CAPS! ONCE AGAIN THE CARLOS ARI THIS CRAZE AND REAL CARTEL FANS NO WHY: MOWER AS I COLUMN MOZO THE CLOWN. HE CAUGHT BOOZE ON HOPE INNING DAY AND. IF GIBBY WAS. A LIFE HE WOOD HALF KNOCKWURST OUT. COLD. OKAY NOW FOR WHAT YOUTH DUMBWAITER POUR.

LUMBER WON TUMMY. EDMON IS THE ONLY. WHAT? NOT NOW I'M WRITING A BOAST!

NUMB PURDUE VICK TURD. SCOTTY GO WINGTIP STEEL SEVENTY PACES. WHITEY SMILES DOWN FROM HEAVEN.

THUMB PEAR TREE HOLLY IS FIRE BENNY AND JOON. END OF AN ERROR. SPENCER MONEY BRING BACK SKIP.

LOL I FOUR GOTCHA WHITEY IZZY LIVE.

THIS