Frustration levels with ex-Cardinals

18/04/2024 15:00

How exactly frustrated should we be with some players?

The latest tradition of looking at the small sample of an ex-Cardinals player having a hot week and making grand declarations about the failure of the front office has motivated me to look back and really judge those "misses." I am going to do this in maybe an unconventional manner. Instead of analyzing the trades, I'm going to do something simpler: how justified are Cardinals fans in being frustrated at a player succeeding elsewhere.

First off, there is something of a statute of limitations at play here. A player who comes up through your organization will have to spend 6 full years on your MLB roster before they automatically qualify for free agency. There is an element of "giving up" on a player if they are traded or released before that point. There is an argument to being frustrated if a player in that category is performing better once they leave the Cardinals.

But I don't think any fan should be mad at players who have reached free agency already. And personally, this is to your discretion, I maintain that same thought for players who sign team-friendly deals with other teams but pass six years of MLB service. Sandy Alcantara goes off the list after this season for me. I understand if you don't agree with that though.

I'll create five stages of frustration that I think Cards fans should have with departing players: Everyone should be mad, annoying but process was fine, whatever, unjustified, and just stop rooting for the Cardinals at this point

Everyone should be mad

I think mad is maybe the wrong word and it depends on what type of fan you are - some people do not like that the Cardinals let go of a certain player, but they aren't actually mad about it. They think, objectively, that the Cardinals did not make a very good move and it wouldn't be that hard to argue against the move at the time either, even if it's with a lot of hindsight.

Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen

Yeah I mean, I know you could argue the process was fine - it's not like Gallen was much of a pitching prospect and Alcantara was largely seen as headed for a bullpen role. I understand that. But honestly, they got Marcell Ozuna in return. I would defend this trade, honest to god, if they actually got two years of a great player. It is some hindsight, but also like: look at his career, we should have seen it coming. They got an almost painfully average player.

Almost every narrative about the Cardinals in the past few years is dead on arrival if they don't make this trade. This trade has defined the Cardinals probably more than anything else they've done in the past 10 years. It is almost singlehandedly responsible for the Cardinals' struggles to take the next step since it was made.

Ramon Urias

Okay so for real, why is there literally no outrage about this guy? I know he's not like winning ALCS MVPs or making All-Star games, but he looked like a capable big leaguer and they just designated him for assignment. He has since been worth 4 fWAR in almost 1,200 plate appearances. League average production from a backup.

I know his opportunities would be slim, but he still had MLB options and there were definitely times we could have used him and maybe we can make an Edmundo Sosa-like trade later. I don't want to create even more handwringing about ex-Cardinals, but it is weird to me that nobody ever talks about this.

Annoying but process was fine

Randy Arozarena

People may disagree on this one. There are arguments against the process: the Cardinals were win-now so they shouldn't have traded for somebody so far away. But since then, some combination of Dylan Carlson, Tyler O'Neill, Harrison Bader, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Jordan Walker, and improbably Tommy Edman emerged while he would still be under team control - and every player named clearly had a ton of team control at the time too. Somebody had to be traded. They traded from a position of strength to improve a position of weakness. Just because the trade has so far not worked out as hoped does not make that thinking bad process. It does make it annoying how it's gone though.

Tyler O'Neill

Really the same concept. Maybe the return wasn't great - but a reliever being worth as much as O'Neill in six years instead of one was really not hard to imagine with O'Neill's injury problems. We still haven't seen Nick Robertson yet. The fact that every starting outfielder on the team got hurt before the season started is not typically something you would expect.

The Cardinals had a lot of outfield options, O'Neill would not have been happy if he was the assumed fourth outfielder, makes sense that's who you would choose to trade.

Whatever

Johan Oviedo, Malcolm Nunez

This is where this post gets hypothetical. It could also be called to be determined. The Jose Quintana trade achieved exactly what the Cardinals wanted - 2.01 ERA over 12 starts, plus a scoreless playoff start - and Oviedo isn't looking like anything better than an average starter. And the jury's out on that one. He had less than stellar underlying stats, plus Tommy John might not really help matters. Malcolm Nunez is eligible for minor league free agency after this season and doesn't seem like the kind of player the Cards would use a 40 man roster spot for, at least not yet. The Pirates still haven't added him.

Richie Palacios

Palacios spot on this list is highly, highly variable. He's gotten off to a good start, Kittredge an even better one. I did not realize Palacios had as low of an xwOBA as he did last year (.305). The sample is still far too small. He's not only likely relegated to the bench as soon as Josh Lowe and Johnny DeLuca are healthy, he might get sent down.

Lane Thomas

The only reason Lane Thomas had the season he had is because he was on a rebuilding team. And only a rebuilding team gives Thomas 682 plate appearances in a season. Jon Lester, though he pitched poorly, he got pretty good results. He was worth almost a win purely going by runs allowed in 12 starts. Lane Thomas... looks like he would peak as a 4th outfielder on any good team that happened to acquire him instead of the Nats.

Unjustified

Adolis Garcia

I was going to add another addition to my statute of limitations, but it would spoil JAG's place. You can't be mad if a player has hit free agency or been given up on by the team you gave him to. We know for a fact that 30 MLB teams rejected Adolis Garcia. The Rangers DFA'd him prior to the 2021 season. We know for a fact not a single team claimed him. I don't know if you ever follow offseason transactions, but there is a metric ton players of DFA'd between September and April, and a good amount of them get claimed, and then when they need that spot, they get DFA'd again, hoping they pass through waivers to stay in their minor league system.

So if you ever wonder why the Cardinals claim a Jared Young, Buddy Kennedy type player, that's basically why. Players you're pretty sure you are designating for assignment later, but they can stay in your system if unclaimed. I am providing this wordy explanation because no team even tried that strategy with him.

Patrick Wisdom

Wisdom is even more clear cut than JAG. The Cardinals traded him to the Rangers, they let him go, and he became a free agent for all 30 teams. He's another example in the "there's no scenario he gets a chance for anybody but a rebuilding team." I don't think you can be mad about players succeeding that way personally. It's not even a Cardinals thing - any team trying to win is not giving Patrick Wisdom a genuine shot back in 2021.

Dakota Hudson

This is still to be determined to be fair, and he hasn't played well enough yet to even get mentioned by Cardinals fans, but assuming he holds his own in Coors and provides some basic competency, he would be used as pure depth for the Cards and so far wouldn't be needed. And hopefully, better players would surpass him if someone was eventually needed.

Genesis Cabrera

One could make the argument Genesis Cabrera would not be one of the eight best relievers in the Cardinals' organization. I'm sure a few of you actually believe that. He's a replacement level reliever who the Cardinals got a maybe prospect for. Sammy Hernandez has a 220 wRC+ in his first 27 PAs (6 walks to 3 strikeouts) in Low A right now. I don't miss having to endure Cabrera fight his control.

Just Root for Another Team

You are a borderline troll if you manage to ever get mad at these players leaving. Like if the standard for when you can complain about an ex-player is this, then you have a problem. You will spend more of your time paying attention to ex-Cardinals' stats than the Cardinals' play. Might as well just take that next step into being an ex-Cardinals fan.

Elehuris Montero, Austin Gomber

To be clear, they are VERY much not on the succeeding side of the table. Which is kind of my point with this category. If you were originally thinking "sounds kind of harsh to say I should just stop being a fan," but hopefully you understand more now. How could you possibly ever be mad and see above replacement level Austin Gomber having a good start or below average corner infielder Montero had four home runs this week? Like you're not trying to be a Cardinals fan at that point.

Andrew Knizner

For all the Kiz-heads out there, this actually is a bit harsh. But it would be genuinely weird to me to be mad at Knizner leaving. He has gotten on base one time in 14 PAs, but one good game and he might have good looking stats, so it's easy enough to see him having a line that someone will be frustrated by (especially if you're a no go on Willson Contreras defensively)

But like, clearly Contreras and Herrera are a better option than Kiz replacing one of them. Like where does Knizner fit in this equation, because any answer you give would be illogical. I even like Pedro Pages more than Knizner so the third catcher thing doesn't even really register for me.

You'll notice Jordan Hicks is not on this list and the reason why is because he became a free agent. In order for the Cardinals to get him, even had they never traded him, they would had to exceed 4 years, $44 million. The strikeouts are not translating into the rotation, so it's not clear he's going to embarrass the Cardinals. As frustrating as it is how the Cardinals handled Hicks, they also traded him at the peak of his trade value, getting back two legitimate pitching prospects back.

I ignored the players still in the minors - I just can't really feel one way or another about Juan Yepez personally, just because he's hitting AAA pitching. Guillermo Zuñiga is too early to tell, but he pitched very badly in 5 innings of work, and is already injured. And I probably forgot someone, but if the player has changed teams multiple times (Connor Capel), been DFA'd, released - I'm ignoring them.