Coastal Bias? Free Agents? 2024?

12/18/2024 09:00 AM

The hot stove beckons

Hello fellow VEB'rs! This week I am going to take a visual look at where the current MLB WAR powers lie according to current (at the time of this writing) Fangraphs' Depth Charts data, and also what remaining free agents are out there available to teams, to help get a general idea of what could happen in roster construction and the free agent market this offseason.

According to Fangraphs Depth Charts, there is a total of 114.7 WAR still on the free agency table. So there is a lot of distribution of resources still to take place. The hot stove has really just begun! Even though a lot has already happened, it feels like anyway. When Juan Soto is off the table, I suppose that opens things up a bit more. Now what?

By Fangraphs estimates, the Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Orioles, and Mets are already sitting on rather sizable WAR chests. Then you have the Twins, Phillies, Astros, Padres, Rangers, Mariners, and Diamondbacks set up very well, with the possibility to add free agents to arrive at that top tier later. As you can see, there does appear to be a coastal bias!

I am going to conduct a study with graphs, and for the purposes of this study I have included only 7 teams as the west coast (ok, the diamondbacks are a bit of a stretch, but I needed to pad the numbers a bit... and I just can't see them as a center of the country team for whatever reason).

Here are the details on what teams I considered to be in each geographic zone:

West coast teams: Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Diamondbacks, Athletics, Mariners, Angels

East coast teams: Yankees, Phillies, Orioles, Mets, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Nationals, Braves, Marlins, Rays (again, squint at teams like the Phillies, Blue Jays and Braves... I just couldn't quite classify them as middle of the country)

Non-coastal teams: Brewers, Astros, Guardians, Royals, Twins, Tigers, Rangers, Pirates, Reds, Rockies, White Sox, Cardinals, Cubs

So with my methodology, there is nearly 407 WAR established in the east coast region, 474.7 WAR in the vast majority of geographical America, and 282.4 WAR in the west coast region. You might say, hey, the WAR is not on the coasts, it's in the middle of the country!

Well that's not accurate really, because the west and east coast together FAR surpass the 13 middle of the country teams. Middle of the road may be more like it! But there is the most fair way to evaluate it, at least that I can think of.

There you go. That is more than enough evidence that there is a coastal bias. Normally we would talk about that being in the mainstream media, but there's a reason for that. The teams with money gobble up all the free agents, and sometimes have better draft and development plans because they attract the best talent all around from trainers to coaches to any type of player that really wants to compete at the highest levels.

So who are the biggest impact players that are still available via free agency that could raise some of these teams to the next level? Will most of these guys go to the coasts? I grade each of the top options on the market, using nothing other than my opinion:

• 3B Alex Bregman is one of the bigger names available in free agency. He is well above average at defense, good for 20-25 home runs next year, doesn't strike out a ton, and may or may not take a good amount of walks. If you want and/or need a new third baseman, this is probably your guy if you're ready to spend the money. B+
• 1B Pete Alonso has a lot of bluster but is he really an impact player? He isn't really projected to be an elite player next year, but he will certainly help teams lacking in home run threats. His defense could be described as a bit of a liability. However, he is a producer because of his power numbers including home runs that should be over 30 by season's end. That said he is a bit of a one trick pony with a lackluster on-base %, that will go to a team truly searching for a boost to the power department. B
• SS Ha-Seong Kim is a pretty good shortstop who is solid to well above average on defense, and a tick above average on offense. A good pickup for any team looking to more than adequately fill a need at shortstop. He may not be a flashy player but he is very well balanced. B-
• OF Teoscar Hernandez is not a good defender but he hits for some power. However, his on-base percentage is possibly a pretty big question mark, can he hit enough home runs to overcome his weaknesses? He is certainly an above average player but I think a team might be disappointed if they signed him thinking he will be a true difference maker. C
• OF Jurickson Profar is a better option if you're willing to sacrifice defense for offense. His on-base percentage is much better than Teoscar Hernandez, and he might hit almost as many home runs. C+
• SP Corbin Burnes is another of the biggest names left on the board. Along with Alex Bregman, there are few players left that could make a big impact on a team's roster construction. He's not the most flashy ace but he would be at the top of many a teams starting rotation. Burnes is going to give you a lot of innings at around 3.5 FIP. B+
• SP Jack Flaherty is a bit of an enigma, I really don't know what to expect of him in 2025. But the way he pitched this year, he is definitely back on the map, especially for teams in desperate need of starting pitching. B-

Ok, that is all the time I have for free agent grading. Sorry if I missed any obvious ones.

One more thing: Depth Charts is grading each teams current depth at each position. So I will list each position and the team that corresponds in highest value:

• C Mariners
• 1B Blue Jays (as an aside, there is a lot of value in free agency left on the board at first base)
• 2B Diamondbacks (also a lot of free agent value left at second)
• SS Orioles
• 3B Guardians (again, lots of value left via free agency here)
• LF Tigers (and plenty via free agency)
• CF Mariners
• RF Yankees (and a lot left via free agency)
• DH Dodgers
• SP Dodgers (and a lot of value available via free agency still)
• RP Twins (and a lot of bullpen arms available still)

Album Hall of Fame

I have been listening to Prefuse 73 a lot lately, so I am going to go ahead and induct 'Vocal Studies and Uprock Narratives' from back in 2001. This album has been with me since then, as I was an early adopter of the sounds of Prefuse 73. This album is perhaps the most exemplary of the entire glitch hop genre, but I do believe that Prefuse 73 eclipses that entire genre and is something more. Regardless, this particular album fits the genre quite well and you'll find some interesting guest appearances by some pretty big name rappers on here.

That said, it's mostly about the production techniques and new sounds derived from the Akai MPC sampler and Guillermo Scott Herren's out of the box thinking and expertise. Back at this time he lived in (and is originally from) Atlanta, so you'll hear some sunny southeast vibes and maybe even imagine sunny summer days listening to this absolute masterpiece of hip-hop and experimental electronic music.

Until next week, I hope you enjoyed reading all that! Let me know where you think some of these big name free agents will end up after the dust settles.