Report card: Grading the Penguins early offseason moves

07/03/2024 10:58 AM

Nobody here is going to change the team, but there is nothing overly bad.

Even though nobody with the Pittsburgh Penguins wants to come right out and admit it, the early stages of the offseason would seem to indicate some sort of a rebuild has arrived.

It may not be a total, scorched earth, get rid of everybody rebuild, but it's pretty clear the Penguins are looking ahead toward the future with their offseason moves. Emphasis on acquiring future draft picks, short-term free agent signings that look to be reclamation projects, and not really doing anything to make the team noticeably better in the short term.

There are still a couple of months to go this offseason before the team reports to training camp so it is still possible — if not likely — more changes get made, but let's take a look at the moves that have been made so far.

Acquiring Kevin Hayes and a second-round pick

The first major move of the offseason was probably the one that should have set your expectations for what is ahead. The Penguins basically bought a future second-round pick for $7 million by taking on the remainder of Kevin Hayes' contract.

The good news is that the Blues might very well stink this season, which could make that second-round pick a fairly high selection. Maybe in the top-45. Perhaps even in the top-40.

That could be a valuable asset. But the harsh reality is that unless they use that pick as a trade asset, there is likely only a 30 percent chance that pick turns into an NHL player. There is a very real possibility that Hayes plays more games for the Penguins over the next two years than that pick ever does.

Does that excite you?

I guess it all depends on what your expectations and hopes are. If you were hoping for the Penguins to try and seriously compete this season, lighting what remained of your salary cap space on fire to take on a Jeff Carter replacement so you can get a lottery ticket a year from now is probably not filling you with much excitement (and for me, it is not).

But if you are of the opinion that the Penguins' run with this current core is over and that it is time to start turning the page, the extra asset probably has more value.

Grade: D

Penguins sign Blake Lizotte

Kyle Dubas definitely has a type for his bottom-six forwards. He loves his defensive-minded penalty killers that can't really score, and Lizotte definitely adds to the growing list.

But I actually don't mind Lizotte because I do think he is at least decent at what is going to be asked of him.

Of the 434 forwards that have logged at least 1,000 minutes of 5-on-5 hockey over the past three years, Lizotte ranks 34th in the NHL in expected goals against per 60 minutes and 46th in goals against. Those are strong defensive numbers. None of the recent defensive-minded bottom-six guys that have been added rated anywhere near that high over the same stretch.

He is also still only 26 years old, the contract term was limited to two years and the salary cap number comes in at under $1.8 million. All of that is also a nice change from last year's bottom-six additions who were significantly older and signed for more money at more term.

He will also bring some speed and energy to a team that needs both of them.

If you are going to fill your bottom-six with players like this, this is a good one to get. Solid move. Maybe my favorite one of the offseason so far.

Grade: B+

Penguins sign Anthony Beauvillier

This is the classic reclamation project gamble in the hopes that a fresh start can spark something.

Before the 2023-24 season Beauvillier was a decently productive middle-six winger that you could count on for 15 goals and 40 points. Those numbers tanked in 2023-24 as he bounced around the league playing for Vancouver, Chicago and Nashville.

The biggest driver behind that decline in production was a shooting percentage that absolutely cratered down to 4.8 percent. Prior to last season he was a 10.4 percent shooter for his career. It is not unreasonable to expect some kind of positive regression there and get a little bit of an increase in his goal production this season. It's just a matter of whether or not it will be enough to matter, both in terms of winning or using him as a trade deadline asset.

It's not a huge cost ($1.25 million), but it's a really boring move with limited upside.

Grade: C

Trading Reilly Smith to the New York Rangers

The name of the game here was simply shedding as much of Smith's $5 million salary as possible.

For whatever reason Smith just did not work out here as planned, and it was one of the contracts that was clogging up this year's salary cap. So the Penguins traded him, while retaining 25 percent of his contract, for a 2027 second-round pick and a conditional fifth-round pick (the lesser of the Rangers' two picks).

Overall, it's fine. I don't think Smith is a major loss, it opened up over $3 million in salary cap space for this season, and they got more back for Smith than they gave up for him (a third-round pick) despite the fact he was coming off a worse season.

I think my only complaint here is that if you are retaining salary I would have liked to have seen the pick be a little sooner. But that might have been out of the Penguins' control, mainly because the Rangers no longer have their 2025 and 2026 second-round picks. And I can't imagine the trade market for Smith was that robust that they could have gotten a similar deal out of another team. So, I think they got what they could.

Grade: B+

Penguins sign Matt Grzelcyk

Of the free agent signings, I think this is my least favorite one. It's another reclamation project on a one-year deal, but I just don't see a huge chance for a bounce back here. He was at one time a favorite of the analytics community but his play has rapidly regressed in recent years, and he is already 30 years old. I guess I am measuring this on the basis of — why not just quality P.O. Joseph and keep him for what might have been a cheaper price (or at least comparable) for a younger player with more upside?

Grade: D

Penguins Sebastian Aho

Now this one, I don't mind. Aho is not going to transform their defense or change the game, but as 5th-7th defenseman I like it. He is cheap ($775,000 per season for two years), has had some success in sheltered roles (among Islanders defensemen that played 1,000 minutes the past two years, he was tops in expected goal share) and is still only 27. You are going to need at least eight or nine NHL caliber defensemen to get through an 82 game season and this is solid depth at a cheap price.

Grade: B

On an individual basis most of these moves are fine. There are no bad, long-term deals here (a pleasant change from last offseason) and they did add some future assets and clear a little bit of salary cap space this offseason. It's just hard to fully understand the vision right now because they are not fully committing to one direction or another. They are kind of looking toward the future, but not really going all in with it. They are kind of trying to put some good players on the ice this season, but not really fully committing to trying to win. You can not have your cake and eat it too here because that typically just leads to even more extended mediocrity.

They tried to do more of the latter (all in on competing) last offseason but simply made a lot of the wrong moves (minus Karlsson and Smith, even though the latter didn't work).

This offseason they just seem kind of stuck in between.