Yankees Potential Trade Target: Luis Arraez

Yesterday at 09:00 AM

The three-time batting champion has a limited skill set, but what a singular skill it is.

Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner have done quite a bit of work so far this offseason to ensure the loss of production from Juan Soto is mitigated. They've signed a new frontline starter in Max Friedand brought in several key contributors via the trade market. However, rumors still exist about potential players the Yankees could target, including one Luis Arraez, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan. Jon Heyman poured some cold water on that news with a later report that the Yankees don't see him as "a fit," but for this exercise, we'll consider it.

Best known for his contact-first approach at the plate, Arraez has been a thorn in the side of the National League since joining the Marlins in 2023 from the Twins. Now, after a majority of 2024 with the Padres, the Yankees could be interested in having him fill in a spot on their infield.

2024 Statistics: 150 games (33 with Miami/117 with San Diego), 672 PA, .314/.346/.392, 4 HR, 46 RBI, 109 wRC+, -9 Outs Above Average, 1.1 fWAR

2025 FanGraphs Depth Charts Projections: 152 games, 658 PA, .307/.353/.414, 9 HR, 59 RBI, 118 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR

Looking at the infield, the Yankees have three positions filled for the upcoming 2025 season, though there's some question about the third spot. Paul Goldschmidt signed for one year at $12.5 million in free agency, and he will take over at first base, with Anthony Volpe manning short for his third MLB season. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is also in the mix to continue playing at third base. He was surprisingly strong after being brought over from Miami despite having never played the position at the major-league level. And with Gleyber Torres heading to the Tigers, there's a hole at the keystone to be filled. That could be filled with Chisholm at his natural second with someone else for third, but either way, someone has to take the vacant infield spot.

A vocal portion of Yankees fans have coveted Arraez's contact bat for years, citing too much of a focus on power hitting through the lineup as the main reason the team can't go all the way and win the World Series. The champion Dodgers paced the NL with 233 homers, but I digress. Despite Arraez's different approach at the plate relative to what the rest of the lineup looks like, he may not be a fit for the pinstripes.

Over the last three seasons, Arraez has finished the campaign with a batting title. That alone is an impressive feat. He was the first Padre to win the crown since Tony Gwynn in 1997 after being the first player in MLB history to win it in both the AL and NL, turning the latter trick by hitting .316 for the 2022 Twins and a remarkable .354 for the 2023 Marlins.

Arraez had a .314 mark to lead the Senior Circuit, though he wasn't as strong as the previous two seasons. Even acknowledging that 2023 was a career year, his '22 outshone his '24 as well. In the former year, Arraez batted .316/.375/.420 with an 8.3-percent walk rate and a 130 wRC+; in the most recent campaign, he hit .314/.346/.392 with a 3.6-percent walk rate and a 109 wRC+. Although Arraez was never one for free passes, he just never walks anymore and the power is diminished. Perhaps Yankee Stadium could restore a smidge of the pop as opposed to the Marlins' and Padres' home parks, but his OBP is entirely tied to his ability to remain a singles-hitting pest.

And yet, Arraez's bat-to-ball tools are nearly unmatched in baseball.

He has a very particular approach that takes advantage of this ability. Don't be deterred by the low hard-hit rate or barrel rate. He still finds the sweet spot of the bat with a 46.5-percent squared-up rate, easily the best in baseball.

A contact-focused game sours for all players eventually, but on a one-year bet for 2025? Arraez will likely stay above a league-average hitter, and perhaps of intrigue for the Yankees, a table-setter at the top of the lineup. New York lacks a leadoff hitter, and Arraez would slide right in.

That being said, the hitting comes with some flaws that Yankees fans should probably be aware of before hopping on the Arraez bandwagon. First, should he take over second base, there will not be much of a difference between Arraez and what Torres did there. Arraez finished with a -10 Outs Above Average at second in 2023 and a -7 in 2024, while Gleyber finished with a -4 OAA in both seasons — and in far more innings played for the counting stat. So, while Torres' defense was hard to watch at many points during the last couple of years, Arraez, statistically, has many more of those issues.*

*For those curious, no, the hot corner isn't an answer either. Arraez hasn't been used at third since posting an ugly -7 OAA in just seven games there for the 2022 Twins.

The comparison of Torres and Arraez—both 28-year-olds for the 2025 campaign who hit the ball well, can't run well, and only ostensibly play second base—should give Yankees fans a better idea of what kind of player Arraez is. Of course, Arraez's contact skills have been otherworldly for two of the past three years, so he has that going for him over Torres, but the archetype is still similar.

There's also the issue of the Yankees' short porch in right field. As noted earlier, Arraez might be able to pop a couple extra homers, but because that's not really the primary feature of his game, it's a suboptimal stadium for him. The man is the best singles-hitting lefty in baseball, but take a wild guess at MLB's worst stadium for singles-hitting lefties (per Savant Park Factors):

Arraez simply won't have as much room to put in bloop singles or other slower, easier-to-catch baseballs. While he isn't strictly a pull hitter by any stretch, this has to be of at least some concern. Finding outfield grass is more challenging when the outfielder is already playing in (relatively, in any case).

Arraez is obviously a very talented contact hitter who could be helpful to the Yankees' left-handed batters' box. But while Arraez is all of that, he still has some significant flaws defensively and could be a liability if right field proves detrimental to his contact-first approach.